Recent form this year suggests the re-emergence of perma-captain Gary Ablett Jnr. To make things interesting, Swan returned from his drug free Arizona trip and scored a very nice 133 SuperCoach points against Sydney bringing his season average up to 117. To make this round even more interesting, Carlton is likely to bounce back after their poor showing last week against the Eagles. Also, Franklin is back and playing against the Pies in the match of the round.

Let’s see if the numbers can help …

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Ablett v. Fremantle

SF 2010: 119 SuperCoach points, 36 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 157 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 22 2009: 146 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 12 2009: 98 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 15 2008: 81 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals
Rd 6 2008: 62 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 114 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 8 2007: 90 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals

Average is 108 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

Note: His last three games against the Dockers have yielded an average of 141 SuperCoach points with 35 disposals. He is averaging 144 over his six previous games this season. Fremantle used Rhys Palmer to tag Luke Power out of the game last week. Restricted him to 8 disposals. Ablett likely to cop a tag. But he is no Luke Power and should still score nicely

Swan v. Hawthorn

Rd 22 2010: 104 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 4 2010: 130 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 140 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 88 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 80 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 114 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals

Average is 109 SuperCoach points with 31 disposals.

Note: A solid recent record against the Hawks. Coming off a 33 disposal game with 133 SuperCoach points last week. However, had not scored over 100 in his previous four games. The question is, is the Swan of last year back?

Pendlebury v. Hawthorn

Rd 22 2010: 97 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 4 2010: 107 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 85 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 136 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 109 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 76 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals

Average is 102 SuperCoach points with 24 disposals.

Note: Only one big score against the Hawks which was 136 back in 2008. No other scores over 110. Has averaged 131 over his previous five games this season (second in the league).

Franklin v. Collingwood

Rd 22 2010: 122 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals, 6 goals 2 behinds
Rd 16 2009: 118 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals, 5 goals 4 behinds
Rd 18 2008: 171 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals, 8 goals 6 behinds
Rd 7 2008: 162 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals, 6 goals 4 behinds
Rd 13 2007: 56 SuperCoach points, 8 disposals, 4 goals

Average is 126 SuperCoach points with 18 disposals and just under 6 goals.

Note: Fantastic record against the Magpies. Take out the 2007 score and his average jumps to 143 SuperCoach points with 20 disposals and just over 6 goals. Will want to prove a point after serving his suspension last week. As always, a high risk high reward option. Previous two games this season he has only scored 89 (against the Suns in Tasmania) and 85 (against the Cats at the MCG).

Hodge v. Collingwood

Rd 4 2010: 138 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 141 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 156 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 103 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 85 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals

Average is 125 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals.

Note: Fantastic recent record against the Magpies. Average over his last three against them is 145 SuperCoach points with 33 disposals. Recent form this year has only been average with scores of 114, 115, 55 and 95.

Mitchell v. Collingwood

Rd 22 2010: 103 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 4 2010: 67 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 110 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 141 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 148 SuperCoach points, 39 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 94 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals

Average is 110 SuperCoach points with 30 disposals.

Note: Able to get possessions but not the best SuperCoach record. Only two big scores, both in 2008. Averaged 117 over his previous five games this season.

Judd v. Richmond

Rd 1 2011: 108 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 146 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 95 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 1 2009: 136 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 1 2008: 102 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 5 2007: 110 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 22 2006: 131 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 3 2006: 119 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 11 2005: 182 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals

Average is 125 SuperCoach points with 24 disposals.

Notes: Pretty consistent scores against the Tigers despite constantly being tagged. Has struggled recently with an average of 93 over his previous four games (with only one score over 100).

Murphy v. Richmond

Rd 1 2011: 107 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 137 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 119 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 101 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 1 2009: 150 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 90 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 1 2008: 111 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals

Average is 116 SuperCoach points with 24 disposals.

Note: Last few games against the Tigers he has alternated being tagged and also playing head to head. Scored a disappointing 93 last week but in the five games prior, averaged 136.

Boyd v. Melbourne

Rd 7 2010: 70 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 108 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 15 2008: 113 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 112 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 19 2007: 74 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 7 2007: 85 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals

Average is 94 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

Note: Great disposal numbers but a poor SuperCoach return. Best example was last week where he picked up 39 disposals for only 106 SuperCoach points. Four most recent scores this year have been 106, 91, 164 and 72 (average of 108).

Goddard v. North Melbourne

Rd 20 2010: 139 SuperCoach points, 37 disposals
Rd 2 2010: 139 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 21 2009: 125 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 11 2009: 74 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 85 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals

Average is 118 SuperCoach points with 28 disposals.

Note: Strong and solid recent record against the Kangaroos. Coming off a bye. Recent form poor save for one game: 84, 143, 82, 57 (average of 92).

Dal Santo v. North Melbourne

Rd 20 2010: 76 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 2 2010: 141 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 21 2009: 46 SuperCoach points, 9 disposals
Rd 11 2009: 137 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 80 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 11 2007: 119 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals

Average is 100 SuperCoach points with 23 disposals.

Note: A couple of big scores amongst some terrible scores. Recent form solid with one poor game: 134, 85, 123, 137 (average 120).

Bartel v. Essendon

Rd 12 2010: 160 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 124 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 10 2009: 102 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 151 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 79 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals

Average is 123 SuperCoach points with 29 disposals.

Note: Fantastic record against the Bombers with a couple of huge scores. Take out the 2007 score and his average jumps to 134 SuperCoach points with 31 disposals. IF he is playing, should get plenty of the ball.

Chapman v. Essendon

Rd 12 2010: 106 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 94 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 107 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 166 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals

Average is 118 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

Note: Solid record against the Bombers with one huge score back in 2007. Not having a big year this season. Only averaging 99. Averaging 90 over his four most recent games.


My opinion: The stats above persuade me to pick Ablett. After Ablett, it is difficult to split the rest of the pack. Firstly, with respect to the Collingwood players, they are playing against Hawthorn in the match of the round. In anticipation of a close game, there is likely to be an even spread of the SuperCoach pie which makes it more unlikely that one of the guns will pump out a big score. Hawthorn will miss Sewell who has been used as an effective tagger in the past. However, if a particular player kicks a lot of goals …

Carlton is playing an energised Richmond and will be looking to atone for last week’s unexpected loss. Murphy and Judd should have big games.

We also can’t forget the Dockers who will be hosting the Suns. Despite being under an injury cloud, Pavlich had a huge game last week (155) and would be expected to pump out another big one against the Suns. It is difficult to anticipate how they would stop him. Note, however, that in the four games prior to that game, Pavlich only managed 90, 133, 85 and 96 (an average of 101).

The other enticing option is one of the Geelong players up against the injury depleted, struggling Watson-less Bombers.

In my opinion, I would pick Ablett, then Pavlich, then (the ever dependable) Pendlebury, then Murphy, and then Bartel (if he is playing).

Good luck to all!!