It seems my job is getting a lot easier. I have been selling the idea of Ablett as the perma-captain in recent weeks and the statistics below don’t change my opinion in the slightest. Just check out the numbers …
<!--more-->
Ablett v. Sydney
Rd 18 2010: 135 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 7 2010: 203 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
Rd 20 2009: 164 SuperCoach points, 44 disposals
Rd 20 2008: 155 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Rd 5 2008: 254 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 122 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Average is 172 SuperCoach points with 34 disposals.
Note: 172! Yes, 172. What an unbelievable average. In his seven games since Round 8, he has averaged 150. Perma-captain is back.
Cox v. Geelong
Rd 22 2010: 75 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals, 12 hitouts
Rd 11 2010: 103 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals, 29 hitouts
Rd 11 2009: 147 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals, 32 hitouts
Rd 22 2008: 113 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals, 15 hitouts
Rd 13 2008: 118 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals, 19 hitouts
Average is 111 SuperCoach points with 21 disposals and 21 hitouts.
Note: Solid recent record against the Hawks. Coming off three scores of only 108, 105 and 114. Had a bye last week so maybe was able to get some rest and recharge his batteries.
Swan v. North Melbourne
Rd 2 2011: 152 SuperCoach points, 40 disposals
Rd 7 2010: 127 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
Rd 6 2009: 127 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 16 2008: 88 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 5 2008: 87 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
Rd 1 2007: 122 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 22 2006: 102 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 3 2006: 101 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Average is 113 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.
Note: Very solid record against the Roos with a huge game in Rd 2 this year. Since returning from injury has managed scores of 102 and 133. A solid and safe choice.
Pendlebury v. North Melbourne
Rd 2 2011: 162 SuperCoach points, 39 disposals
Rd 7 2010: 70 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 6 2009: 110 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 16 2008: 115 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 5 2008: 89 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 1 2007: 85 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
Average is 105 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.
Note: Does not have a great record against the Roos. Taking away his monster 162 in Rd 2 this year, his average dips to 94. In great and consistent form at the moment averaging 129 over his past six games.
Judd v. Western Bulldogs
Rd 15 2010: 140 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 75 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 17 2008: 117 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 100 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
Rd 6 2007: 173 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Average is 121 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.
Note: Fantastic record against the Bulldogs. Take out the 2009 score and his average jumps to 133 SuperCoach points. Coming up a huge 180 last week (which followed scores of 84 and 92 however).
Murphy v. Western Bulldogs
Rd 15 2010: 126 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 105 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 17 2008: 119 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 127 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Average is 119 SuperCoach points with 25 disposals.
Note: Solid record against the Bulldogs but no spectacular scores. Has been ultra consistent this season – in his past seven games he has averaged 127 (with the lowest score being a 93 two weeks ago).
Boyd v. Carlton
Rd 15 2010: 140 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 133 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 17 2008: 111 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 77 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Average is 115 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals.
Note: Solid record against the Blues. Two big scores recently against them with 140 and 133. Recent form this season, however, has been up and down (70, 106, 91, 164, 72).
Goddard v. Port Adelaide
Rd 19 2010: 147 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 5 2010: 101 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 74 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 87C points, 21 disposals
Rd 6 2008: 72 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 5 2007: 101 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Average is 97 SuperCoach points with 23 disposals.
Note: Not a good record against the Power. A big 147 in his most recent game against them, but, taking that number out, his average drops to 87. Has been inconsistent recently with scores of 161, 84, 143, 82, and 57.
Bartel v. West Coast
Rd 22 2010: 92 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 11 2010: 107 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 11 2009: 114 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 22 2008: 149 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 84 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 7 2007: 149 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Average is 116 SuperCoach points with 28 disposals.
Note: Solid record against the Eagles with two (older) big scores of 149. Coming off a poor game and a loss last week (81) so you would expect him to bounce back.
Chapman v. West Coast
Rd 22 2010: 101 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 11 2010: 142 SuperCoach points, 36 disposals
Rd 11 2009: 133 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 22 2008: 40 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 163 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Average is 116 SuperCoach points with 25 disposals.
Note: Take out the 40 SuperCoach points in Rd 22 2008 and his average jumps to 135. Solid, but not great recent form (125, 109, 106, 81).
Hodge v. Brisbane
Rd 16 2010: 153 SuperCoach points, 39 disposals*
Rd 12 2009: 83 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals*
Rd 19 2008: 174 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals*
Rd 5 2008: 89 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
Rd 19 2007: 188 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals*
Rd 1 2007: 64 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
Average is 125 SuperCoach points with 28 disposals.
Note: Seems to alternate good games with bad games. I put an asterisk next to his home games. The three most recent games were at Aurora. Has some huge games against the Lions. Had a career high in disposals last week in a bad loss to the Pies but still managed to score 142.
Mitchell v. Brisbane
Rd 16 2010: 132 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals*
Rd 12 2009: 142 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals*
Rd 19 2008: 87 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals*
Rd 5 2008: 116 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Rd 19 2007: 103 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals*
Rd 1 2007: 77 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
Average is 110 SuperCoach points with 29 disposals.
Note: Solid record against the Lions. Good recent record with 132 and 142 against them at Aurora. Solid recent form with 113, 102 and 144 this season.
Franklin v. Brisbane
Rd 12 2009: 23 SuperCoach points, 5 disposals, 1 goal 2 behinds*
Rd 19 2008: 136 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals, 6 goals 1 behind*
Rd 5 2008: 171 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals, 8 goals 6 behinds
Rd 19 2007: 143 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals, 5 goals 2 behinds*
Rd 1 2007: 72 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals, 3 goals 1 behind
Average is 109 SuperCoach points with 15 disposals and 4 and a half goals
Note: As shown in recent form, a bit inconsistent. Some big scores of 136, 171 and 143 next to an absolute shocker of 23. Recent form is not good with 66, 89 and 85. However, he is coming off a loss against the Pies and is playing back in Tasmania against an ordinary Lions team …
My opinion: As I indicated above, the stats as well as recent form indicate one clear choice: Ablett.
After Ablett, there are a number of options. I like the Hawks who will be rebounding after their terrible loss against the Pies. Expect them to lift against Brisbane down in Tasmania.
Collingwood should have a nice win against the Kangaroos whilst Carlton should continue their winning ways against the Bulldogs. Players from Collingwood and Carlton are very attractive.
In my opinion, I would pick Ablett, then Pendlebury, then Hodge, then Judd, then Murphy and then Swan.
Good luck to all!!
Captain's Choice by the Numbers - Round 16
Discussion in 'Blog' started by squeakAD, Jul 6, 2011.
Comments
Discussion in 'Blog' started by squeakAD, Jul 6, 2011.