The big question this week is will Ablett play or not? And, if he does play, how effective will he be? The numbers below reveal that Ablett is the best option but given the number of question marks hanging over his head, is he worth the risk?

<!--more-->
Ablett v. Richmond

Rd 2 2009: 139 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 164 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 133 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 6 2007: 170 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals

Average is 152 SuperCoach points with 29 disposals.

Note: After a huge average of 172 against Sydney (last week), Ablett again delivers with a 152 average against he Tigers. No scores below 133. However, everyone will no doubt be worried about the extent of his knee injury. Remember that in his seven games since Round 8 (not including last week), he averaged 150.

Cox v. St Kilda

Rd 9 2010: 107 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals, 34 hitouts
Rd 15 2009: 62 SuperCoach points, 11 disposals, 14 hitouts
Rd 3 2009: 112 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals, 27 hitouts
Rd 17 2008: 82 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals, 27 hitouts
Rd 21 2008: 112 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals, 33 hitouts
Rd 12 2008: 125 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals, 25 hitouts

Average is 101 SuperCoach points with 20 disposals and 27 hitouts.

Note: Up and down record against the Saints with his highest score only being 125 back in 2008. Recent form has been steady but not great. No big scores. Coming off three scores of only 101, 108, 105 and 114.

Swan v. Carlton

Rd 3 2011: 108 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 152 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 113 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 136 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 90 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 12 2008: 124 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 4 2008: 85 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 108 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2007: 128 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 21 2006: 130 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 6 2006: 109 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals

Average is 117 SuperCoach points with 30 disposals.

Note: Pretty consistent and solid record against the Blues with only two scores below 100. Since his injury has managed scores of 132, 102 and 133. Had 39 disposals last week.

Pendlebury v. Carlton

Rd 3 2011: 94 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 139 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 115 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 131 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 150 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 12 2008: 89 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 4 2008: 100 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2007: 131 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals

Average is 119 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals.

Note: Pretty similar numbers to Swan actually. Only two scores below 100. In exceptional form at the moment. 160 SuperCoach points last week to bring his average over the past 7 games to 133.

Boyd v. North Melbourne

Rd 18 2010: 110 SuperCoach points, 40 disposals
Rd 9 2010: 120 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 13 2009: 78 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 2 2009: 116 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 76 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 9 2008: 139 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 22 2007: 109 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 90 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals

Average is 105 SuperCoach points with 30 disposals.

Note: Up and down record against the Roos. Seems to be able to get a lot of the ball but not always able to convert into big SuperCoach scores. Recent form this season is not the best: 116, 70, 106, 91.

Judd v. Collingwood

Rd 3 2011: 112 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 85 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 106 SuperCoach points, 37 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 100 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 141 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Rd 12 2008: 101 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 4 2008: 98 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 2 2007: 133 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 16 2006: 96 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 7 2006: 184 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals

Average is 116 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

Note: No big scores against the Pies in recent times. Solid but not spectacular average. Coming off scores of 106, 180, 84 and 92.

Murphy v. Collingwood

Rd 3 2011: 79 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 79 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 114 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 109 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 98 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 12 2008: 132 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 4 2008: 107 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 72 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
Rd 7 2007: 118 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals

Average is 101 SuperCoach points with 24 disposals.

Note: Poor recent scores against the Pies. Has been ultra consistent this season – in his past eight games he has averaged 124.

Goddard v. West Coast

Rd 9 2010: 157 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 112 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 3 2009: 175 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 17 2008: 103 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals

Average is 137 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

Note: Some big scores against the Eagles. Has been inconsistent recently with scores of 108, 161, 84, 143, 82, and 57. Seems to be regaining form after a very ordinary patch in the middle of the season.

Selwood v. Brisbane

Rd 17 2010: 175 SuperCoach points, 41 disposals
Rd 8 2010: 124 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 80 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 121 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 50 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
Rd 12 2007: 110 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals

Average is 110 SuperCoach points with 28 disposals.

Note: Excellent record against the Lions last year. First game back after a four game break. Prior to his suspension, he had scores of 72, 103, 136 and 121. May take some time to get back into the flow of the game. However, the Cats are coming off two losses and a big win against the Lions is expected.

Bartel v. Brisbane

Rd 17 2010: 75 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 8 2010: 122 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 61 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 139 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 129 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 12 2007: 142 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals

Average is 111 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals.

Note: Two scores below 80 and 4 scores above 120. Recent form hasn’t been the best with 112, 81, 4 (injured) and 98.

Chapman v. Brisbane

Rd 17 2010: 91 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 8 2010: 117 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 152 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 95 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 104 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
Rd 12 2007: 100 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals

Average is 110 SuperCoach points with 28 disposals.

Note: Only one big score against the Lions back in 2009. Otherwise, no other scores above 120. Solid, but not great recent form (87, 125, 109, 106, 81)


My opinion: The stats above indicate Ablett. Recent form, taking away last week, also suggests Ablett. However, there are a lot of question marks surrounding him.

After Ablett, I can’t go past Pendlebury. After that, well, there are numerous options.

In my opinion, I would pick Ablett, then Pendlebury, then Swan, then Selwood, then Goddard.

Good luck to all!!