Captain's Choice by the Numbers - Round 19

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Loges, Jul 29, 2011.

By Loges on Jul 29, 2011 at 10:00 AM
  1. Loges

    Loges New Member

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    There seem to be a number of viable options this week. (By the way, thanks to Walesy for filling in for me last week and last minute’s notice!). In previous weeks I have had no hesitation giving Ablett the captaincy but since his injury, his has only managed great, but not fantastic, scores of 126 and 127. The question is whether the injury is not letting him perform at his best.

    The stats below don’t really point to anyone in particular. Hence, recent form this year is a key consideration for me ...

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    Ablett v. St Kilda

    QF 2010: 75 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
    Rd 13 2010: 154 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
    GF 2009: 123 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
    Rd 14 2009: 105 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    QF 2008: 136 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
    Rd 4 2008: 115 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
    Rd 10 2007: 103 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals

    Average is 116 SuperCoach points with 28 disposals.

    Note: Taking out his most recent game and his average jumps to 123. Has been in unbelievably consistent form this season. Has averaged 142 over his past 7 games (not including the game where he was injured and only scored 19).

    Cox v. Western Bulldogs

    Rd 9 2011: 149 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals, 33 hitouts
    Rd 13 2010: 78 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals, 11 hitouts
    Rd 4 2009: 102 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals, 31 hitouts
    Rd 6 2008: 95 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals, 21 hitouts
    Rd 17 2007: 83 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals, 23 hitouts
    Rd 62 2007: 76 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals, 10 hitouts

    Average is 97 SuperCoach points with 20 disposals and 22 hitouts.

    Note: Not a good record against the Bulldogs. Only one big score which was earlier this season. Has good recent form with 149 and 137 in his two most recent games this year.

    Judd v. Kangaroos

    Rd 12 2010: 119 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
    Rd 18 2009: 88 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
    Rd 20 2008: 113 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
    Rd 19 2007: 63 SuperCoach points, 11 disposals
    Rd 10 2007: 112 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals

    Average is 99 SuperCoach points with 20 disposals.

    Note: Poor record against the Roos. No big scores. Has not managed more than 23 possessions against them. However, coming off a huge 197 last week which followed up efforts of 122, 106, 180.

    Murphy v. Kangaroos

    Rd 12 2010: 111 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
    Rd 18 2009: 124 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
    Rd 20 2008: 110 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
    Rd 19 2007: 58 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
    Rd 10 2007: 51 SuperCoach points, 6 disposals

    Average is 91 SuperCoach points with 20 disposals.

    Note: Poor record against the Roos. Like Judd, no big scores. Take out the 2007 numbers and his average jumps to 115 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals. Has been in consistent, but not spectacular form recently: 133, 113, 103, 118, 93 – at an average of only 112.

    Selwood v. Melbourne

    Rd 10 2010: 134 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
    Rd 16 2009: 161 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
    Rd 6 2009: 114 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
    Rd 19 2008: 134 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
    Rd 3 2008: 51 SuperCoach points, 10 disposals
    Rd 3 2007: 50 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals

    Average is 107 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

    Note: Taking out the two low scores in 2008 and 2007 and his average jumps to 136 SuperCoach points with 34 disposals. Since returning from suspension has only scored 78 and 126.

    Bartel v. Melbourne

    Rd 10 2010: 77 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
    Rd 6 2009: 106 SuperCoach points, 41 disposals
    Rd 19 2008: 120 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
    Rd 3 2008: 151 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
    Rd 3 2007: 178 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals

    Average is 126 SuperCoach points with 30 disposals.

    Note: Interesting to see that Bartel’s huge games have coincided with Selwood’s poor games. Not the best recent record against the Dees. Solid, but not fantastic recent form: 95, 123, 112, 81 – at an average of 103.

    Swan v. Essendon

    Rd 5 2011: 106 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
    Rd 20 2010: 142 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
    Rd 5 2010: 78 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
    Rd 14 2009: 107 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
    Rd 5 2009: 123 SuperCoach points, 37 disposals
    Rd 17 2008: 91 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
    Rd 6 2008: 125 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
    Rd 16 2007: 63 SuperCoach points, 11 disposals
    Rd 5 2007: 94 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals

    Average is 103 SuperCoach points with 25 disposals.

    Note: Solid average against the Bombers but some poor scores in the mix. After four scores under 100 between rounds 8 to 11, he has averaged 118 over his five recent games.

    Pendlebury v. Essendon

    Rd 5 2011: 130 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
    Rd 20 2010: 120 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
    Rd 5 2010: 130 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
    Rd 14 2009: 68 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
    Rd 5 2009: 170 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
    Rd 17 2008: 46 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals
    Rd 6 2008: 167 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
    Rd 16 2007: 105 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
    Rd 5 2007: 102 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals

    Average is 115 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals.

    Note: A solid average against the Bombers with some big scores in 2009 and 2008. Ultra consistent this year. Only one score below 100 which was 94 in Round 3. Has averaged 143 over his three most recent games (123, 145, 160).

    Franklin v. Fremantle

    Rd 21 2010: 129 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals, 5 goals, 1 behind
    Rd 8 2009: 109 SuperCoach points, 11 disposals, 4 goals
    Rd 2 2008: 74 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals, 4 goals, 1 behind
    Rd 7 2007: 69 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals, 1 goal, 4 behinds
    Rd 18 2006: 54 SuperCoach points, 9 disposals, 1 goal
    Rd 9 2005: 49 SuperCoach points, 11 disposals, 1 behind

    Average is 81 SuperCoach points with 13 disposals and 2 and a half goals.

    Note: No big scores. Terrible scores between 2005 and 2008. Only averaged 101 over his past five games this season (132, 132, 66, 89, 85).

    Hodge v. Fremantle

    Rd 11 2011: 95 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
    EF 2010: 88 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals
    Rd 21 2010: 104 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
    Rd 2 2008: 98 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
    Rd 7 2007: 110 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    Rd 18 2006: 46 SuperCoach points, 10 disposals
    Rd 1 2006: 118 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
    Rd 9 2005: 141 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals

    Average is 99 SuperCoach points with 22 disposals.

    Note: Not a good record against the Dockers and only one big score back in 2005. Averaging 129 over his previous five games (110, 163, 142, 114, 115).

    Mitchell v. Fremantle

    Rd 11 2011: 123 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
    EF 2010: 103 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
    Rd 21 2010: 98 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
    Rd 8 2009: 124 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
    Rd 2 2008: 103 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    Rd 7 2007: 151 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals

    Average is 117 SuperCoach points with 32 disposals.

    Note: Solid scores and seems to be able to accumulate possessions against the Dockers. Averaging 120 over his previous five games (111, 129, 113, 102, 144).


    My opinion: The stats above don’t really indicate any standouts. I have also had a look at St Kilda players as they will be playing the Gold Coast Suns. In particular, I have looked at Dal Santo who is in unbelievable form at the moment – he is averaging 142 over his previous five games (158, 107, 174, 139, 134).

    Goddard is also regaining some form after a lean patch in the middle of the season. He is averaging 124 over his previous four games (119, 106, 108, 161).

    This week, I think it is a close call between Pendlebury, Dal Santo, Ablett and Selwood for the captaincy.

    In my opinion, I would pick them in that order. Following this group, I think it is hard to separate Judd and Swan and Cox.

    Good luck to all!!
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by Loges, Jul 29, 2011.

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