Captain's Choice by the Numbers - Round 20

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Reciprocity, Aug 4, 2011.

By Reciprocity on Aug 4, 2011 at 10:00 AM
  1. Reciprocity

    Reciprocity New Member

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    So who missed the boat last weekend? Lots of big (or at the very least serviceable Captain-esque) scores from most premiums last week except for Judd and Franklin.

    Based on the historical stats, it can be seen that this week, again, despite the loss of Ablett, there are plenty of decent choices as captain. Additionally, we can’t forget the Geelong players who will be having a party against the Ablett-less Suns at Skilled Stadium.

    Last week against Melbourne, Geelong players shared a total of 2167 SuperCoach points (66%) against Melbourne’s total of 1135 SuperCoach points (34%). Nine players broke the ton. Geelong played Gold Coast in Round 10 this year. Geelong won by 66 points. Geelong players shared a total of 1819 SuperCoach points (55%) against Gold Coast’s total of 1483 SuperCoach points (45%). Geelong had six century makers in that game. Steve Johnson led the way with 7 goals and 162 SuperCoach points.

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    Dal Santo v. Fremantle

    Rd 10 2011: 137 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
    Rd 12 2010: 138 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
    Rd 4 2010: 129 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
    Rd 4 2009: 136 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
    Rd 20 2008: 93 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
    Rd 20 2007: 119 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
    Rd 9 2007: 125 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals

    Average is 125 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

    Note: Fantastic record against the Dockers. Only one sub-100 game otherwise all games over 119. He is in career best form at the moment averaging 150 over his previous six games (189, 158, 107, 174, 139, 134).

    Goddard v. Fremantle

    Rd 10 2011: 57 SuperCoach points, 10 disposals
    Rd 12 2010: 142 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
    Rd 4 2010: 133 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
    Rd 4 2009: 113 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
    Rd 20 2008: 104 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
    Rd 13 2008: 152 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals

    Average is 117 SuperCoach points with 24 disposals.

    Note: Take out the score this year and his average jumps to 129 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals. Fantastic record. In consistent form at the moment averaging He is averaging 126 over his previous five games (138, 119, 106, 108, 161).

    Fisher v. Fremantle

    Rd 10 2011: 118 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
    Rd 12 2010: 70 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
    Rd 4 2010: 65 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
    Rd 4 2009: 59 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
    Rd 20 2008: 140 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
    Rd 13 2008: 110 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
    Rd 20 2007: 110 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
    Rd 9 2007: 75 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals

    Average is 93 SuperCoach points with 20 disposals.

    Note: Not the best recent record against the Dockers. (I only really included these stats as I would have thought a number of people would want to trade him in this week …).

    Cox v. Richmond

    Rd 12 2010: 78 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals, 25 hitouts
    Rd 12 2009: 93 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals, 27 hitouts
    Rd 15 2008: 140 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals, 43 hitouts
    Rd 20 2007: 85 SuperCoach points, 12 disposals, 29 hitouts
    Rd 5 2007: 80 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals, 20 hitouts

    Average is 95 SuperCoach points with 19 disposals and 29 hitouts.

    Note: Poor record against the Tigers with only one score above 100 in 2008. No other score above 93. Had an unbelievable game last week with 213 which followed up scores in previous rounds of 149 and 137.

    Pendlebury v. Port Adelaide

    Rd 1 2011: 120 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
    Rd 15 2010: 125 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
    Rd 10 2009: 94 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
    Rd 20 2008: 80 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
    Rd 4 2007: 115 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals

    Average is 107 SuperCoach points with 25 disposals.

    Note: Low scores in 2009 and 2008 as he was tagged by Cassisi. Solid record against the Power otherwise. Has averaged 147 over his four most recent games (160, 123, 145, 160)

    Swan v. Port Adelaide

    Rd 1 2011: 166 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
    Rd 15 2010: 127 SuperCoach points, 39 disposals
    Rd 10 2009: 166 SuperCoach points, 48 disposals
    Rd 20 2008: 118 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals
    Rd 4 2007: 118 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
    Rd 20 2006: 100 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
    Rd 5 2006: 107 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals

    Average is 129 SuperCoach points with 28 disposals.

    Note: Port Adelaide can’t stop him. Recently been tagged by Cassisi (2010), Matt Thomas/Chad Cornes (2009), Chad Cornes/Shaun Burgoyne (2008). Still racks up big scores. Has averaged 128 over his six recent games.

    Judd v. Melbourne

    Rd 10 2011: 155 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
    Rd 11 2010: 109 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
    Rd 21 2009: 132 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
    Rd 5 2008: 167 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
    Rd 8 2007: 166 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals

    Average is 146 SuperCoach points with 29 disposals.

    Note: Fantastic record against the Demons. Take out his lowest score and the average jumps to 155 SuperCoach points. Coming off a very poor 88 after previous weeks of 197, 122, 106, 180. Will look to bounce back with a huge game against the struggling Dees.

    Murphy v. Melbourne

    Rd 10 2011: 147 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
    Rd 11 2010: 94 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
    Rd 21 2009: 115 SuperCoach points, 37 disposals
    Rd 5 2008: 73 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
    Rd 22 2007: 84 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
    Rd 14 2007: 122 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals

    Average is 106 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals.

    Note: A great score earlier this season against the Dees. Otherwise, not a fantastic record. Has been in consistent form recently: 138, 131, 113, 103, 118, 93 – at an average of 116.

    Franklin v. North Melbourne

    Rd 5 2010: 115 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals, 5 goals, 2 behinds
    Rd 15 2009: 177 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals, 4 goals, 4 behinds
    Rd 3 2009: 72 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals, 4 goals, 3 behinds
    Rd 13 2008: 18 SuperCoach points, 10 disposals, 1 goal, 3 behinds
    Rd 3 2008: 83 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals, 5 goals, 4 behinds
    Rd SF 2007: 66 SuperCoach points, 12 disposals, 3 goals, 3 behinds
    Rd 3 2007: 128 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals, 3 goals, 3 behinds

    Average is 94 SuperCoach points with 14 disposals and 3 and a half goals.

    Note: A huge score in 2009 but otherwise a very patchy record with some shockers.
    Only scored more than 100 in 2 out of his past six games this season (63, 132, 132, 66, 89, 85).

    Hodge v. North Melbourne

    Rd 5 2010: 109 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
    Rd 15 2009: 144 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
    Rd 3 2009: 104 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    Rd 13 2008: 133 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
    Rd 3 2008: 88 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
    Rd SF 2007: 38 SuperCoach points, 8 disposals
    Rd 17 2007: 139 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
    Rd 3 2007: 78 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals

    Average is 104 SuperCoach points with 23 disposals.

    Note: Solid record against the Roos. Take out the score in the Semi Final in 2007 and his average jumps to 114 SuperCoach points with 25 disposals. Under an injury cloud however.

    Mitchell v. North Melbourne

    Rd 15 2009: 97 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
    Rd 3 2009: 147 SuperCoach points, 37 disposals
    Rd 13 2008: 161 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
    Rd 3 2008: 61 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals
    Rd SF 2007: 53 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
    Rd 3 2007: 130 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals

    Average is 108 SuperCoach points with 29 disposals.

    Note: Three big scores against the Roos with two absolute shockers as well. Consistent recent form averaging 119 over his previous six games (117, 111, 129, 113, 102, 144).


    My opinion: In terms of the historical stats above, Judd, Swan and Dal Santo are the standouts. In terms of recent form (over the past six games), Dal Santo is leading the league.

    As stated above, it is very difficult to go past any Geelong player as Geelong should dominate the Suns at Skilled.

    Based on the stats, after Dal Santo, it is difficult to separate a bunch of players including Selwood, Swan, Pendlebury, Judd and Cox.

    In my opinion, I would pick Dal Santo and then the players, in order, as listed above.

    Good luck to all!!
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by Reciprocity, Aug 4, 2011.

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