Well the pressure is on now. First week of finals. Without doing any analysis, it seems to be a difficult week to pick. By now, most Supercoach teams should be full of premiums which makes the choice even harder. Lots of question marks this week: is Ablett fully fit? Is Cox fully fit? With St Kilda playing Collingwood, will there be no big scorers? Brisbane is playing the Gold Coast Suns this week. Are there any Brisbane players who can score big?

I have added more players than normal and I have also gone into a little more detail in my notes section which may assist in determining matchups etc. Let’s look at the numbers:

<!--more-->

Ablett v. Brisbane

Rd 7 2011: 75 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
Rd 17 2010: 144 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 8 2010: 102 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 149 SuperCoach points, 42 disposals
Rd 22 2007: 99 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 12 2007: 142 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals

Average is 119 SuperCoach points with 30 disposals.

Note: Very solid record against the Lions. A poor score in the Suns’ win against the Lions in Rd 7 this year as he was tagged by Raines and also Polkinghorne. Played the game out after receiving a hit to the knee and also to the ribs in the first quarter. Tagged by Polkinghorne in Rd 17 2010 when he scored the big 144. Has averaged 142 over his past 8 games (not including the game where he was injured and only scored 19). Question mark over his hamstring injury?

Pendlebury v. St. Kilda

Rd 11 2011: 149 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
GF 2010: 123 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
GF 2010: 87 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 106 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 73 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals
QF 2009: 22 SuperCoach points, 4 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 128 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
SF 2008: 92 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 74 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 123 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 72 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals

Average is 95 SuperCoach points with 22 disposals.

Note: Pendlebury was injured in the first quarter of the QF in 2009. Take out that score and his average rises to 103 SuperCoach points with 24 disposals. Not the best record. Doesn’t seem to cop the Clint Jones tag though (has recently gone to Thomas or Swan). Fantastic recent record averaging 144 over his four most recent games (133, 160, 123, 145, 160).

Swan v. St. Kilda

Rd 11 2011: 94 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
GF 2010: 123 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
GF 2010: 89 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 145 SuperCoach points, 36 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 98 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
QF 2009: 83 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 66 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
SF 2008: 132 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 139 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 118 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 145 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals

Average is 112 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals.

Note: Most recently tagged by Dempster. Limited possessions but kicked 4 goals. In previous games tagged by Jones as well as Ray. Played head to head with Goddard in Rd 16 2010 hence his big score in that game. In consistent form at the moment averaging 129 over his previous seven games (136, 176, 115, 107, 132, 102, 133).

Dal Santo v. Collingwood

Rd 11 2011: 123 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
GF 2010: 98 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
GF 2010: 68 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 130 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
QF 2009: 119 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 152 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
SF 2008: 142 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 76 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 145 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 132 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals

Average is 119 SuperCoach points with 28 disposals.

Note: Tagged by McCarthy in the game this year. Played head to head with Thomas in the GF replay after playing in the first GF very underdone. Otherwise, a very solid record against the Pies. Unbelievable form at the moment averaging 148 over his previous seven games (133, 189, 158, 107, 174, 139, 134).

Goddard v. Collingwood

Rd 11 2011: 82 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
GF 2010: 172 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
GF 2010: 162 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 94 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 116 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
QF 2009: 156 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 108 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
SF 2008: 103 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 135 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 79 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals

Average is 121 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

Note: Doesn’t seem to get tagged by Collingwood. Krakouer spent time on him in the game earlier this year when he scored 82. Was in a form slump at the time – had only averaged 89 in the five games prior to that game. Played head to head with Swan in Rd 16 2010 and was tagged by Toovey in Rd 3 2010. Very solid record against the Pies. In consistent form at the moment averaging He is averaging 122 over his previous six games (100, 138, 119, 106, 108, 161).

Fisher v. Collingwood

Rd 11 2011: 127 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
GF 2010: 94 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals
GF 2010: 97 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 147 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 110 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
QF 2009: 177 SuperCoach points, 42 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 129 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
SF 2008: 118 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 100 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 106 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 187 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals

Average is 127 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

Note: What a fantastic record against the Pies. A couple of huge scores in there. Played in the midfield in the game earlier this year. Has previously copped forward tags from Goldsack and Macaffer. Solid, but not good, recent record averaging 101 over his previous four games (115, 104, 73, 112).

Cox v. Melbourne

Rd 11 2011: 131 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals, 20 hitouts
Rd 8 2010: 119 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals, 14 hitouts
Rd 7 2009: 123 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals, 27 hitouts
Rd 20 2008: 104 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals, 13 hitouts
Rd 19 2007: 61 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals, 15 hitouts

Average is 108 SuperCoach points with 22 disposals and 18 hitouts.

Note: Take out the 2007 score and his average jumps to 119 SuperCoach points with 24 disposals and 19 hitouts. Seems to be able to accumulate the possessions against the Dees. Question mark over his fitness for this game. Prior to last round’s 78, had scores of 213, 149 and 137.

Selwood v. Adelaide

Rd 16 2010: 144 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 18 2009: 127 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 124 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 121 SuperCoach points, 37 disposals
Rd 19 2007: 127 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals

Average is 129 SuperCoach points with 31 disposals.

Note: Fantastic record against the Crows. Has not scored below 120. In the game last year was allowed to play head to head against Van Berlo. Has averaged 142 over his three most recent games this season (145, 155, 126).

Judd v. Fremantle

Rd 22 2010: 145 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 13 2010: 97 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 14 2009: 165 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 128 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 9 2008: 86 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 67 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals
Rd 3 2007: 123 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals

Average is 116 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals.

Note: Take out the Rd 18 2007 score (when he was injured in the third quarter) and his average jumps to 124 SuperCoach points. Always cops a tag from the Dockers (2010 – McPhee; 2009 – Ibbotson; 2008 – Crowley). Been a little inconsistent recently with scores of 163, 88, 197, 122, 106, 180 –an average of 143.

Murphy v. Fremantle

Rd 22 2010: 137 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 14 2009: 108 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 128 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 9 2008: 53 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 95 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals

Average is 104 SuperCoach points with 25 disposals.

Note: Tagged by Suban in 2010 and tagged by Schammer in 2009. Solid record against the Dockers. Consistent recent form with scores of 110, 138, 131, 113, 103, 118 – at an average of 119.

Pavlich v. Carlton

Rd 22 2010: 142 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 13 2010: 81 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 87 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
Rd 9 2008: 111 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 135 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals

Average is 111 SuperCoach points with 20 disposals.

Note: In Rd 22 2010 was manned up by Jamieson. However, in the Rd 13 2010 game he played head to head against Gibbs. The Dockers will be out to prove themselves this week and desperately need to win. Hasn’t been in the best form recently with scores of 96, 117, 74 and 82 – an average of only 92.

Franklin v. Port Adelaide

Rd 7 2011: 114 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals, 3 goals, 3 behinds
Rd 18 2010: 85 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals, 3 goals, 3 behinds
Rd 18 2009: 74 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals, 2 goals, 7 behinds
Rd 4 2009: 77 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals, 3 goals, 3 behinds
Rd 8 2008: 131 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals, 6 goals, 2 behinds
Rd 20 2007: 44 SuperCoach points, 9 disposals, 2 goals
Rd 10 2007: 57 SuperCoach points, 10 disposals, 3 goals, 3 behinds

Average is 83 SuperCoach points with 14 disposals and just over 3 goals.

Note: Very poor record against the Power. Normally manned up by Carlile. Not in good form at the moment and has only scored more than 100 in 2 out of his past seven games this season (96, 63, 132, 132, 66, 89, 85) – an average of 95.

Hodge v. Port Adelaide

Rd 7 2011: 91 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 64 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
Rd 11 2010: 136 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 18 2009: 99 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 90 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
Rd 20 2007: 96 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
Rd 10 2007: 120 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals

Average is 99 SuperCoach points with 19 disposals.

Note: Not a good record against the Power. In recent games against them, he has been tagged by Logan, Kane Cornes and Thomas. Averaging 133 over his four most recent games (117, 110, 163, 142).

Mitchell v. Port Adelaide

Rd 7 2011: 108 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 88 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 11 2010: 56 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
Rd 18 2009: 91 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 59 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 88 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 20 2007: 52 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 10 2007: 158 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals

Average is 88 SuperCoach points with 24 disposals.

Note: Shocking record against the Power. Copped a variety of tags in the game this year. Played head to head against Rodan in Rd 18 2010 but was tagged by Kane Cornes in Rd 11 2010. Great, consistent recent form averaging 122 over his previous seven games (137, 117, 111, 129, 113, 102, 144).

Goodes v. Richmond

Rd 12 2011: 53 SuperCoach points, 10 disposals
Rd 14 2010: 72 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 99 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
Rd 19 2009: 223 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 6 2009: 58 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
Rd 10 2008: 142 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 113 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
Rd 2 2007: 115 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals

Average is 109 SuperCoach points with 18 disposals.

Note: Take out that huge 223 in Rd 19 2009 and his average drops to 93. Had a poor score earlier this year after kicking 4 behinds (and no goals) whilst marked by Rance. In solid form recently averaging 122 over his past seven games (including 139 and 167 most recently).

O’Keefe v. Richmond

Rd 12 2011: 130 SuperCoach points, 10 disposals
Rd 14 2010: 149 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 112 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
Rd 19 2009: 99 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 6 2009: 94 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
Rd 10 2008: 99 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 138 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
Rd 2 2007: 98 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals

Average is 115 SuperCoach points with 22 disposals.

Note: Very solid record against the Tigers with no scores below 94. A great recent record against them. Played head to head against Connors when he scored his 149. In other recent games, he was tagged by Jackson (Rd 12 2011 and Rd 3 2010) and by Polo (Rd 19 2009). Has not hit the ton in his past three games this season (86, 87, 71).

Boyd v. Essendon

Rd 1 2011: 74 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 22 2010: 88 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 10 2010: 62 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 87 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 21 2008: 82 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 4 2008: 98 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 15 2007: 75 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals

Average is 81 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals.

Note: Terrible record against the Bombers even though he is able to accumulate the possessions. No score over 100. Has not been tagged by the Bombers in recent games. Most recently has been allowed to play head to head against Watson, Stanton and Prismall. Not in the best form at the moment averaging 99 over his previous five games this season.


My opinion: In terms of the historical stats above, Selwood, Fisher, Goddard and Dal Santo are the standouts. Interesting that there are thee Saints players there.

In terms of recent form it is hard to go past Dal Santo, Pendlebury, Ablett, Swan and Selwood.

However, I am a bit nervous of picking a Collingwood player who may cop the Clint Jones tag. I am also a bit nervous about picking a St Kilda player against the strong Pies line up even though the numbers above show that St Kilda players can still score big.

In my opinion, I would pick, in order: Ablett, Dal Santo, Selwood, Pendlebury and then Swan.

Good luck to all!!