The choice of captains in Supercoach became a difficult exercise during 2010 and moreso last season. Gone were the days of everyone picking Gary Ablett Jnr in their Supercoach team at the start of the season and everyone locking him in as captain every single week.
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Flashback: Round 5, 2008 – Sydney versus Geelong. Ablett had scored 115 in each of his two previous games and was going to be tagged in this game by Kieran Jack. Put the captaincy on Ablett or someone else? History shows that Ablett went on to score a mammoth 254 SC points. Since that moment, for the next season or so, Ablett became everyone’s permanent captain. (A popular alternate choice as captain for that round was Luke Hodge (who had the second best average in 2008). Sadly for those who selected Hodge that round, he only managed 89 SC points against Brisbane).

Ablett would finish the 2008 season averaging 132. His closest rivals were Hodge who averaged 118 and Bartel who averaged 116. In 2009, there was a similar story. Ablett’s average for the season increased to 140 and his nearest rivals were Montagna with 126 and Swan with 123. The “perma-captain” was still alive and well.

In 2010, the field was evened. Ablett averaged 130 for the season but so did Goddard. Swan averaged 127 with the next best being Judd with 119. Last year, 2011, Ablett did not have the highest average for the year. His average of 127 was second to Pendlebury with 129. Cox and Swan both averaged 122.

For the 2011 season, the “perma-captain” was no more. This point was emphasised with Ablett not being picked in many teams prior to the season starting due to the uncertainty of his scoring potential with the Gold Coast Suns.

This season, with the absence of any perma-captain, we have to look for other factors to assist us in picking our captains. The main determining factors include: recent form, form against an opponent, and whether the particular player is likely to be on a winning team. In my posts each week, I try to include statistics showing the recent form and form against the opposing teams.

Here, I want to focus on the last factor of picking players from winning teams. It became clear last season that people were happy to select a captain from a team playing against the Suns simply because of the fact that the Suns were expected to lose.

This season, it is expected that the Greater Western Sydney Giants will lose the majority of their games. To a lesser extent, this remains the case for the Suns as well. The question, therefore, is whether we should pick a captain from a team playing against the Giants or the Suns.

Gold Coast Suns – Analysis of Season 2011

Last year, the Suns played 22 games and lost 19 of them by an average losing margin of 64 points. My statistics derive from these 19 games.

It is common knowledge that in each AFL game, there is a limited number of SC points available for distribution (approximately 3,300). A player is allocated SC points based on their contribution to the outcome of a game. It follows that players from winning teams should receive the majority of the distribution of SC points in any given game.

In Gold Coast’s worst three losses for the season (average losing margin of 136 points), they were allocated 38% of the SC points whilst their opponents were allocated 62%. In these three games, there were 4 Gold Coast scores over 100 whilst their opponents managed 30 scores over 100.

In Gold Coast’s closest three losses for the season (average losing margin of 16 points), they were allocated 46% of the SC points whilst their opponents were allocated 54%. In these three games, there were 10 Gold Coast scores over 100 whilst their opponents managed 16 scores over 100.

The numbers speak for themselves. In a heavy loss, a team will concede a lot of SC points and a lot of opposing players will score over 100. In a close game, the SC points will be distributed more evenly.

What we need to find, therefore, is a player from a team playing against these weaker sides who has the ability to score big. In the Suns’ 19 losses last year, 135 players scored over 100. That is an average of 7 players in each opposing team scoring 121. Put into perspective, that is approximately one third of the players on an opposing team each scoring 121.

Breaking down these 135 scores further, 11 of these scores were over 150, whilst there were 24 scores between 130 and 149. There were 100 scores between 100 and 129.

Maybe all I have done is point out the obvious. But perhaps it will be something else that we take into account when trying to minimise our risk in selecting a captain: if in doubt, feel free to pick a captain from a team coming up against the Suns or Giants as the statistics suggest that you have a one in three chance of selecting a player who will score you over 100.

Partial Lockout Loophole

Having detailed the above, this season we have the opportunity to test our theory out in the first round with the added benefit of the “partial lockout loophole”. Due to the partial lockout, we can select a player from the Giants, Swans, Tigers or Blues as our vice-captain. If we are unhappy with their score, we can simply select our captain from anyone left in our team who haven’t yet played in that round. If, however, we are happy with the score from our nominated vice-captain, we put the captaincy onto a non-playing player for the round. As this “captain” does not play and accumulate any points, the vice-captain will become the captain for the round.

The Swans play the Giants in Round 1. The key candidates for the vice-captaincy are clearly Goodes and Mumford. Goodes’ pre-season scores were 77 and 90. The 90 was against the Suns and he would have scored higher if he had kicked straight (0 goals and 3 behinds). Mumford’s pre-season scores were 21, 45 and 170. The 170 was against the Suns and he managed 1 goal, 42 hitouts, 19 disposals and 8 tackles in that game).

I don’t know which Giants player is capable of stopping Goodes but I am leaning towards Mumford at this stage as my vice-captain.

I will post the extended details of statistics next week, but the captain’s choices for round 1 include:

Thompson: averages 149 SC points with 43 disposals (2 games) against Gold Coast

Judd: averages 131 SC points with 25 disposals (10 games) against Richmond

Ablett: averages 127 SC points with 29 disposals (8 games) against Adelaide

Murphy: averages 117 SC points with 24 disposals (8 games) against Richmond

Cox: averages 114 SC points with 21 disposals and 24 hitouts (7 games) against Western Bulldogs

Swan: averages 111 SC points with 32 disposals (8 games) against Hawthorn

Franklin: averages 111 SC points with 17 disposals and 5 goals (7 games) against Collingwood

Pendlebury: averages 106 SC points with 26 disposals (8 games) against Hawthorn

Good luck all! I will post detailed statistics next week.