I am sure that everyone is busily finalising their teams at the moment but consideration needs to be given to our captain’s choice for the weekend. This is especially so because the lockout loophole did not provide any joy last weekend with Mumford and Goodes both having underwhelming games with scores of 95 and 90 respectively. For those who are still able to utilise the loophole, however, Judd’s numbers below are very enticing. So begins our analysis of statistics …
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Thompson v. Gold Coast

Rd 22 2011: 162 SC points, 51 disposals
Rd 8 2011: 136 SC points, 34 disposals

Average is 149 SC points with 43 disposals.

Note: Small sample size but a fantastic record against the Suns. 18 touches in first quarter in Rd 22 led to a big SC score as the Crows ended up winning by more than 10 goals. In good form in the NAB with a 133 in his last pre-season game. Finished last season a little hot and cold with 70, 127, 80, 162, 92, 151 from Round 19 onwards.

Judd v. Richmond

Rd 15 2011: 180 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 1 2011: 108 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 146 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 95 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 1 2009: 136 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 1 2008: 102 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 5 2007: 110 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 22 2006: 131 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 3 2006: 119 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 11 2005: 182 SC points, 23 disposals

Average is 131 SC points with 25 disposals.

Notes: Fantastic consistent high scores against the Tigers despite constantly being tagged. Scored 180 in Round 15 last year whilst being tagged by Grigg. In that game, Carlton thumped Richmond by 103 points. Was tagged by Jackson in the Round 1 clash last year. A quiet pre-season with scores of 34 and 60.

Ablett v. Adelaide

Rd 22 2011: 145 SC points, 39 disposals
Rd 8 2011: 198 SC points, 41 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 76 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 18 2009: 115 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 197 SC points, 46 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 91 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 19 2007: 86 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 11 2007: 104 SC points, 21 disposals

Average is 127 SC points with 29 disposals.

Notes: Fantastic scores against the Crows last year with lots of disposals. Tagged by Van Berlo in Round 22 last year but managed to get the ball a lot and also lay 9 tackles. Huge score in Round 8 was helped by his dominant first quarter where he gathered 15 disposals and 3 goals. He was tagged by Douglas in that game. Great pre-season with scores of 140 and 114.

Murphy v. Richmond

Rd 15 2011: 118 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 1 2011: 107 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 137 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 119 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 101 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 1 2009: 150 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 90 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 1 2008: 111 SC points, 21 disposals

Average is 116 SC points with 24 disposals.

Note: Solid but not amazing games against the Tigers. In 2011, he played head to head against Deledio (Round 15) and head to head against Foley (Round 1). A quiet pre-season with scores of 58 and 87.

Cox v. Western Bulldogs

Rd 19 2011: 213 SC points, 27 disposals, 37 hitouts
Rd 9 2011: 149 SC points, 23 disposals, 33 hitouts
Rd 13 2010: 78 SC points, 18 disposals, 11 hitouts
Rd 4 2009: 102 SC points, 25 disposals, 31 hitouts
Rd 6 2008: 95 SC points, 20 disposals, 21 hitouts
Rd 17 2007: 83 SC points, 18 disposals, 23 hitouts
Rd 62 2007: 76 SC points, 16 disposals, 10 hitouts

Average is 113 SC points with 21 disposals and 24 hitouts.

Note: Prior to last year, Cox had a terrible record against the Bulldogs averaging only 87. Until season 2011 when he exploded with huge scores of 213 (helped by a huge mark in defence as well as a late goal) and 149. It will, however, be interesting to see what role he has with the team this season with the continued emergence of Naitanui. A great pre-season including scores of 122 and 145.

Franklin v. Collingwood

PF 2011: 79 SC points, 11 disposals, 3 goals 1 behind
Rd 15 2011: 66 SC points, 17 disposals, 1 goal 1 behind
Rd 22 2010: 122 SC points, 14 disposals, 6 goals 2 behinds
Rd 16 2009: 118 SC points, 24 disposals, 5 goals 4 behinds
Rd 18 2008: 171 SC points, 21 disposals, 8 goals 6 behinds
Rd 7 2008: 162 SC points, 21 disposals, 6 goals 4 behinds
Rd 13 2007: 56 SC points, 8 disposals, 4 goals

Average is 111 SC points with 17 disposals and just under 5 goals.

Note: Taking away the 2007 score, leading up to 2011 he had a fantastic record against the Magpies. In 2011, he was manned by Tarrant who restricted him in both games to well below average scores. Taking out the 2007 and 2011 scores, his average is 143 with 6 goals over four games. A good pre-season with 123 and 117.

Swan v. Hawthorn

PF 2011: 133 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 15 2011: 102 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 22 2010: 104 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 4 2010: 130 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 140 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 88 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 80 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 114 SC points, 30 disposals

Average is 111 SC points with 32 disposals.

Note: A solid recent record against the Hawks. A quiet pre-season with scores of 46, 74 and 80. Played head to head against Sewell and Burgoyne in the preliminary final and Round 15 respectively last year. Seems a lock to get 30 plus possessions.

Pendlebury v. Hawthorn

PF 2011: 118 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 15 2011: 119 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 22 2010: 97 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 4 2010: 107 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 85 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 136 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 109 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 76 SC points, 23 disposals

Average is 106 SC points with 26 disposals.

Note: Only one big score against the Hawks which was 136 back in 2008 which was a 9 goal defeat. He was tagged by Ellis in that game. Scored below his average in the two games against the Hawks last year. Played head to head against Mitchell in the preliminary final. Interesting statistic is that he never accumulated more than 30 possessions a game against the Hawks until last year. A solid pre-season with 105, 87 and 153.

Boyd v. West Coast

Rd 19 2011: 120 SC points, 40 disposals
Rd 9 2011: 110 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 13 2010: 79 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 19 2009: 120 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 126 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 6 2008: 86 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 104 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 62 2007: 82 SC points, 22 disposals

Average is 103 SC points with 30 disposals.

Note: Always seems to get plenty of the ball against the Eagles but no stand out high scores. Solid pre-season with scores of 103 and 116.

Goddard v. Port Adelaide

Rd 16 2011: 108 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 19 2010: 147 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 5 2010: 101 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 74 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 87C points, 21 disposals
Rd 6 2008: 72 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 5 2007: 101 SC points, 21 disposals

Average is 99 SC points with 24 disposals.

Note: Not a good record against the Power. A big 147 in 2010, but, taking that number out, his average drops to 91. Finished the pre-season with a score of 123.

My opinion: I think that the numbers speak for themselves. It is very hard to pick someone other than Ablett. It seems a bit risky picking someone from either Collingwood or Hawthorn. For those with Judd, the captain’s loophole seems a very good option because of his fantastic record. Finally, it is very difficult to go past Cox’s unbelievable two previous games against the Bulldogs. Thompson is a great option too but I doubt he will be on many teams.

This round, the clear selections are Ablett, Cox , Judd and Thompson. There is a bit of daylight to the rest. If you are a bit of a risk taker, try Franklin who had an amazing record against the Pies between 2008 and 2010.

Good luck to all!