Round 14 recap: I think Ablett is just teasing us. Fresh off his bye, and playing against the West Coast Eagles (with recent scores against them of 154, 176, 121 and 175) with his most recent score this season being 188, everyone thought he would knock out another bumper score. Unfortunately 87 is simply not good enough.

Following Rd 13 where only three players scored over 130, Rd 14 proved to be quite different with 22 players scoring 130 or above. At the top of the list was Jolly with 157 but there were other familiar faces in the top bunch with Selwood (149), Swan (147) and Watson (145) having big games.

Here are the numbers …
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Judd v. Collingwood

Rd 3 2012: 134 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 17 2011: 122 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 3 2011: 112 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 85 SC points, 17 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 106 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 100 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 141 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 12 2008: 101 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 4 2008: 98 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 2 2007: 133 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 16 2006: 96 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 7 2006: 184 SC points, 32 disposals

Average is 118 SC points with 28 disposals.

Note: Solid average against Collingwood. Since 2010 has been tagged by Wellingham (except in the Rd 17 game last year when Wellingham went to Murphy instead. Despite reports that he is playing injured, he responded with a solid 126 against Hawthorn last week which had followed a lean run of scores: 47, 105, 79 and 80.

Watson v. St Kilda

Rd 3 2011: 136 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 100 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 8 2010: 106 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 20 2009: 196 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 126 SC points, 39 disposals
Rd 22 2008: 92 SC points, 18 disposals
Rd 5 2008: 88 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 4 2007: 85 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 15 2006: 111 SC points, 29 disposals

Average is 116 SC points with 29 disposals.

Note: Solid record against St Kilda with a fantastic average of 133 against them in his past five games. Most recently played head to head against Goddard but normally plays head to head against Hayes. Clinton Jones has tagged Stanton in recent matchups (Rd 3 2011 limiting him to 16 touches, Rd 8 2010 limiting him to 11 touches, Rd 8 2009 limiting him to 13 touches and Rd 22 2008 limiting him to 18 touches). Jones missed the games in Rd 18 2011 and Rd 20 2009. Watson is in fantastic form with scores of 145, 120, 149 and 140 (average of 139).

Swan v. Carlton

Rd 3 2012: 109 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 17 2011: 107 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 3 2011: 108 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 152 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 113 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 136 SC points, 38 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 90 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 12 2008: 124 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 4 2008: 85 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 102 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2007: 128 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 21 2006: 130 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 6 2006: 109 SC points, 24 disposals

Average is 115 SC points with 30 disposals.

Note: Solid record against the Blues with only two scores below 100. Three scores of 130 or higher. Carrazzo tagged Pendlebury out of the game in Rd 3 earlier this season (limiting him to just 62 SC points with 15 disposals). So with Pendlebury missing this game, he may get the job on Swan. Swan had a huge 147 last week which had followed scores of 117 and 160.

Ablett v. Geelong

Rd 10 2011: 109 SC points, 31 disposals

Average is 109 SC points with 31 disposals.

Note: Only one game against his former club at Metricon Stadium last year. Was injured and did not play in his return to Skilled Stadium in Rd 20. Coming off a poor score of 87 which had followed scores of 188, 64 and 155.

Dal Santo v. Essendon

Rd 3 2011: 113 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 106 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 8 2010: 133 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 20 2009: 122 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 72 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 22 2008: 117 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 5 2008: 129 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 4 2007: 100 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 15 2006: 91 SC points, 20 disposals

Average is 109 SC points with 25 disposals.

Note: Good record against Essendon. Has most recently been tagged by Hocking but has also been tagged by Howlett. One poor game in Rd 8 2009 when Hocking got the better of him. Had a poor 70 last week which had followed scores 130, 112 and 83.

Thompson v. Port Adelaide

Rd 5 2012: 141 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 19 2011: 70 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 4 2011: 120 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 17 2010: 125 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 73 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 64 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 6 2009: 79 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 16 2008: 94 SC points, 17 disposals
Rd 3 2008: 102 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 85 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 3 2007: 84 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 21 2006: 67 SC points, 16 disposals
Rd 6 2006: 123 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 20 2005: 82 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 3 2005: 87 SC points, 17 disposals

Average is 93 SC points with 23 disposals.

Note: Surprisingly bad record against the Power with only five scores over 100 in 15 games. Highest score against them was this year in Rd 5 where he played head to head against Boak. Dangerfield also had a good game in the showdown with 141 SC points and 39 touches. He had been tagged by Cassisi in the Rd 19 game last year and limited to 70 SC points. Not in the best recent form with scores of 100, 102, 126, 58 and 93 (average of 96).

My opinion: This week Geelong plays Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium whilst Hawthorn take on Greater Western Sydney at the MCG. Ablett has only played one game against his former club which was Rd 10 last year at Metricon where he picked up 31 disposals for 106 SC points without hitting the scoreboard. Amongst the Geelong players against the Suns, Steve Johnson led all scorers in both games against them last year with 162 (Rd 10) and 155 (Rd 20 at Skilled Stadium). Selwood also impressed in those two games with scores of 136 and 145.

I would also expect Franklin (if he plays) and Mitchell to have big games against the Giants.

There are a couple of solid averages shown in the historical numbers above. I am a little concerned about Judd’s recent form so based on the numbers above, I am leaning towards Swan (who will probably be tagged by Carrazzo) or Watson (who yet again may not be tagged by Jones) who have both shown great recent form. Ablett’s recent form makes it a hard pick this week and the question is, do we give him another chance – especially against his former club (with no Ling tag).

To summarise: Ablett, Watson, Selwood, Swan then Mitchell.

My smoky pick this week has to be Steve Johnson. Despite his recent below average scores (83, 91 and 60), it is hard to ignore his two huge scores against the Suns last year: 162 (29 disposals and 7 goals, 3 behinds) and 155 (31 disposals and 6 goals, 1 behind).

Good luck to all!!