Round 16 recap: Another big week with five huge scores last round all 150. Petrie top scored with 168 (in three quarters of football against Carlton) followed by Judd with 159 (who will be remembered for all the wrong reasons in the same game). Jack (158), Mitchell (158) and Vince (152) rounded out the top 5. Ablett returned to some form with 133 (the 18th highest score for the round).

Let’s look at the numbers …

<!--more-->

Ablett v. Brisbane

Rd 4 2012: 129 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 21 2011: 134 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 7 2011: 75 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 17 2010: 144 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 8 2010: 102 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 149 SC points, 42 disposals
Rd 22 2007: 99 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 12 2007: 142 SC points, 35 disposals

Average is 122 SC points with 30 disposals.

Note: Three scores over 140 against Brisbane. A poor 75 in Round 7 last year when he received a slight injury to his knee but kept on playing. Tagged by Raines in the two games in 2011 and tagged by Polkinghorne in the two games in 2010. Returned to form with 133 last round which had followed scores of 110, 87, 188 and 64.

Selwood v. Essendon

Rd 12 2010: 91 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 131 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 10 2009: 136 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 111 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 123 SC points, 26 disposals

Average is 118 SC points with 27 disposals.

Note: Solid record against Essendon with only one game below 100. Solid form recently with scores of 107, 116, 149, 101 and 154 (average of 125).

Murphy v. Western Bulldogs

Rd 16 2011: 103 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 15 2010: 126 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 105 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 17 2008: 119 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 10 2007: 127 SC points, 19 disposals

Average is 116 SC points with 27 disposals.

Note: Solid record against the Bulldogs with no scores below 100. Returned from injury 24 disposals and 112 SC points. Prior to his injured affected game where he only scored 38, he had two ordinary games prior with returns of 73 and 89 (after averaging 127 in his first five games).

Cox v. Adelaide

Rd 24 2011: 135 SC points, 15 disposals
Rd 12 2011: 114 SC points, 14 disposals
Rd 15 2010: 101 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 9 2008: 83 SC points, 12 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 146 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 134 SC points, 25 disposals
PF 2006: 89 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 2 2006: 128 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 22 2005: 110 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 1 2005: 87 SC points, 13 disposals

Average is 113 SC points with 20 disposals.

Note: Solid record against Adelaide with a good recent history against them. A terrible 74 last week at home against Sydney. This had followed a purple patch where he had scored 215, 134, 119 and 132 (average of 150).

Pendlebury v. Hawthorn

Rd 1 2012: 167 SC points, 33 disposals
PF 2011: 118 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 15 2011: 119 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 22 2010: 97 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 4 2010: 107 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 85 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 136 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 109 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 76 SC points, 23 disposals

Average is 113 SC points with 27 disposals.

Note: Huge score in Rd 1 this year. Has had a solid record against Hawthorn in recent years. Returned from injury (having missed five weeks) with 36 touches and 132 SC points against Geelong last week. Prior to injury had scores of 95 (sub affected), 118, 147, 107, 145 and 140.

Swan v. Hawthorn

Rd 1 2012: 92 SC points, 31 disposals
PF 2011: 133 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 15 2011: 102 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 22 2010: 104 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 4 2010: 130 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 140 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 88 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 80 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 114 SC points, 30 disposals

Average is 109 SC points with 31 disposals.

Note: Solid but not spectacular recent record against the Hawks. Managed 110 last week which had followed scores of 112, 147, 117 and 160 (average of 129).

Watson v. Geelong

Rd 12 2010: 69 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 74 SC points, 18 disposals
Rd 10 2009: 76 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 30 SC points, 12 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 99 SC points, 28 disposals

Average is 70 SC points with 21 disposals.

Note: What a terrible record against Geelong. No scores over 100. The 30 SC points he scored in 2008 was just part of an overall bad performance by Essendon who lost that game by 99 points. Scored 123 last week after a disappointing 93 the wek prior. This had followed a solid run of scores of 145, 120, 149 and 140 (average of 139).

My opinion: Brisbane plays Gold Coast his week whilst Fremantle hosts Greater Western Sydney. In Brisbane’s game against Gold Coast in Rd 4 this season, Rockliff led all scorers with 37 disposals and 167 SC points. Rockliff has been in lean form recently with scores of 90, 69 and 107. Still, I think that this would be the perfect game for him to regain some form.

Based on the numbers above, I am not brave enough to pick anyone other than Ablett. Following Ablett, the choice is not that easy because I am a little reluctant to pick Swan or Pendlebury because they are playing an in form Hawthorn side. After Ablett therefore, I would pick Watson (despite his poor record) and then Murphy (who should find plenty of the ball after returning from injury last week and in Judd’s absence).

My smoky pick this week is Matthew Pavlich who has been in great recent form and who should kick a big score at home against the Giants.

Good luck to all!!