Round 17 recap: Six scores over 150 and Ablett rewards those who stuck with him with 150. Leading the round was Beams with 162, Petrie with 161, Pavlich with 160 , JP Kennedy with 157 and Tuck with 155. Based on recent efforts of 133 and 150 in his past two games, it is getting very difficult (again) to look past Ablett. In addition to recent form, look at Ablett’s numbers against the Swans …

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Ablett v. Sydney

Rd 16 2011: 19 SC points, 3 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 135 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 7 2010: 203 SC points, 38 disposals
Rd 20 2009: 164 SC points, 44 disposals
Rd 20 2008: 155 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 5 2008: 254 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 122 SC points, 23 disposals

Average is 150 SC points with 29 disposals.

Note: 150! What a huge average. And that average is despite his 19 SC points in the game last year when he was subbed off in the second quarter with a knee injury. Take that score out and his average jumps to 172 with 34 disposals. Returned to form with 150 last round which had followed scores of 133 and 110.

Selwood v. Adelaide

Rd 7 2012: 109 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 21 2011: 87 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 144 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 18 2009: 127 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 124 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 121 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 19 2007: 127 SC points, 27 disposals

Average is 120 SC points with 29 disposals.

Note: Fantastic record against the Crows. Struggled in the 2011 game which was an 11 point win at Footy Park. Will enjoy playing at Simonds Stadium and should bounce back after a poor game last week with a score of 83 against Essendon. This had followed scores of 107, 116, 149 and 101 (average of 111).

Murphy v. Richmond

Rd 1 2012: 119 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 15 2011: 118 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 1 2011: 107 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 137 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 119 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 101 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 1 2009: 150 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 90 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 1 2008: 111 SC points, 21 disposals

Average is 117 SC points with 25 disposals.

Note: Last few games against the Tigers he has played head to head against Deledio or Foley. Since returning from injury he has scored 108 with 21 disposals and 112 with 24 disposals.

Cox v. Brisbane

Rd 10 2012: 97 SC points, 13 disposals, 31 hitouts
Rd 23 2011: 49 SC points, 8 disposals, 16 hitouts
Rd 19 2010: 104 SC points, 22 disposals, 9 hitouts
Rd 1 2010: 50 SC points, 7 disposals, 18 hitouts
Rd 1 2009: 128 SC points, 23 disposals, 26 hitouts
Rd 16 2008: 171 SC points, 36 disposals, 27 hitouts
Rd 1 2008: 166 SC points, 29 disposals, 22 hitouts
Rd 14 2007: 147 SC points, 26 disposals, 21 hitouts

Average is 114 SC points with 21 disposals and 21 hitouts.

Note: Great average against Brisbane which is inflated by his huge scores between 2007 and 2009. In the past three years, however, his average is only 75 against Brisbane (in four games). Has had two poor weeks in a row: 76 against Adelaide last week and 74 the week prior against Sydney. This had followed a purple patch where he had scored 215, 134, 119 and 132 (average of 150).

Watson v. Hawthorn

Rd 14 2011: 57 SC points, 9 disposals
Rd 13 2010: 150 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 140 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 22 2009: 90 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 89 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 72 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 6 2007: 77 SC points, 24 disposals

Average is 96 SC points with 23 disposals.

Note: Poor record against Hawthorn. Injury affected score last year when he injured his hamstring in the second quarter. Two huge scores in 2010 however. Has had a relatively quiet recent three weeks with scores of 101, 123 and 93 (average of 106) which had followed a great run of scores of 145, 120, 149 and 140 (average of 139).

Mitchell v. Essendon

Rd 14 2011: 102 SC points, 38disposals
Rd 13 2010: 110 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 22 2009: 113 SC points, 36 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 68 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 11 2008: 59 SC points, 13 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 114 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 6 2007: 83 SC points, 23 disposals

Average is 93 SC points with 28 disposals.

Note: Poor record against Essendon. Normally tagged by Hocking. Coming off scores of 106, 158, 108, 129 and 124.

Thompson v. Geelong

Rd 7 2012: 155 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 21 2011: 80 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 14 2011: 89 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 82 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 18 2009: 54 SC points, 17 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 106 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 81 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 19 2007: 53 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 11 2007: 117 SC points, 33 disposals

Average is 91 SC points with 25 disposals.

Note: Terrible record against Geelong with one huge score earlier this year at AAMI Stadium. Coming off a poor 92 last round which had followed scores of 118, 143, 100 and 102.

My opinion: The numbers and recent form clearly point to Ablett. However, as usual, we look at the teams playing Greater Western Sydney and also Gold Coast.

This round, Collingwood play Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium. In what will be a percentage booster for the Magpies, it will be expected that Collingwood players receive a huge share of the SC pie. Leading the charge should be Pendlebury (who has returned from injury with scores of 127 and 132), Swan (coming off scores of 143, 110, 112 and 147) and Beams (coming off scores of 162 and 137)

Sydney play Gold Coast this round. Interestingly, in their clash in Rd 16 last year, only four Swans cracked the ton (lead by Reid with 122 and O’Keefe with 121). Goodes managed 107, Mumford finished with 93 whilst JP Kennedy only scored 81.

Based on the numbers above, Ablett is the clear choice. Following Ablett, the choice has to be one of the Magpies playing the Giants. Pendlebury is getting back to his best whilst Swan had 49 touches last round. Beams also had a big game last week with 34 touches and 4 goals.

After Ablett, it is hard to separate the Magpies but I would pick Swan, and then Pendlebury. Following Pendlebury, I would pick Selwood at home against Adelaide and then Watson against Hawthorn.

My smoky pick this week is … Travis Cloke who should kick a bag against the Giants and who is out to show his critics how much money he really is worth …

Good luck to all!!