Round 18 recap: OK Ablett is back. He led all scorers with 171 last week (which had followed scores of 150 and 133 in the preceding weeks). Following Ablett was Naitanui (164), Murphy (160), Maric (159), Swallow (158), Jack (158) and Tuck (153).

The numbers suggest that there are quite a few players who should score very solidly this week but, can we really look past Ablett?? Here are the numbers …
<!--more-->

Dal Santo v. Collingwood

Rd 21 2011: 100 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 11 2011: 123 SC points, 32 disposals
GF 2010: 98 SC points, 29 disposals
GF 2010: 68 SC points, 18 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 130 SC points, 27 disposals
QF 2009: 119 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 152 SC points, 38 disposals
SF 2008: 142 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 76 SC points, 18 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 145 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 132 SC points, 28 disposals

Average is 117 SC points with 28 disposals.

Note: Head to head with Thomas in the most recent game. Poor scores in the GF replay playing head to head with Thomas after playing in the first GF very underdone. Otherwise, a very solid record against the Pies. A nice score last week with 137 which had followed two poor scores of 73 and 66.

Goddard v. Collingwood

Rd 21 2011: 81 SC points, 16 disposals
Rd 11 2011: 82 SC points, 24 disposals
GF 2010: 172 SC points, 29 disposals
GF 2010: 162 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 94 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 116 SC points, 25 disposals
QF 2009: 156 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 108 SC points, 31 disposals
SF 2008: 103 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 135 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 79 SC points, 20 disposals

Average is 117C points with 26disposals.

Note: Doesn’t seem to get tagged by Collingwood. Started the most recent game against them deep in the forward line and only managed 16 touches. A solid 127 last round which had followed shockers of 57 and 81.

Swan v. St. Kilda

Rd 21 2011: 156 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 11 2011: 94 SC points, 19 disposals
GF 2010: 123 SC points, 26 disposals
GF 2010: 89 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 145 SC points, 36 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 98 SC points, 26 disposals
QF 2009: 83 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 66 SC points, 24 disposals
SF 2008: 132 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 139 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 118 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 145 SC points, 29 disposals

Average is 116 SC points with 26 disposals.

Note: Normally tagged by Jones but has also been recently tagged by Dempster or Ray. In recent good form with scores of 141 and 143.

Thompson v. Essendon

Rd 7 2011: 111 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 14 2010: 155 SC points, 34 disposals
EF 2009: 62 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 11 2009: 95 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 20 2008: 132 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 10 2008: 134 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 95 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 1 2007: 143 SC points, 26 disposals

Average is 116 SC points with 31 disposals.

Note: Some huge scores against Essendon. Only scored 106 last week which had followed below average scores of 92 and 118.

Selwood v. Hawthorn

Rd 2 2012: 112 SC points, 25 disposals
QF 2011: 117 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 12 2011: 72 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 5 2011: 115 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 15 2010: 144 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 2 2010: 95 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 185 SC points, 42 disposals
Rd 1 2009: 71 SC points, 25 disposals
GF 2008: 106 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 17 2008: 138 SC points, 31 disposals

Average is 116 SC points with 28 disposals.

Notes: Slightly inconsistent record against the Hawks with a big 185 SC points back in 2009 but a low score of 71 in the same year. Has been tagged by Lewis in the past two games but was tagged by Sewell in the three previous games. A solid 126 last week which had followed a below par 83 the week before. Prior to that game he had scored 107 and 116.

Ablett v. Melbourne

Rd 23 2011: 125 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 10 2010: 138 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 124 SC points, 40 disposals
Rd 6 2009: 91 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 84 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 3 2008: 115 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 3 2007: 130 SC points, 30 disposals

Average is 115 SC points with 29 disposals.

Note: Not a huge average against Melbourne but three very solid recent scores against them. Melbourne is really struggling at the moment. Ablett has returned to his usual amazing form with recent scores of 171, 150 and 133 (average of 151).

Murphy v. Sydney

Rd 13 2011: 138 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 6 2011: 110 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 115 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 101 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 108 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 16 2008: 115 SC points, 24 disposals

Average is 115 SC points with 24 disposals.

Note: A solid but unspectacular record against Sydney with one big game against them most recently. Since returning from injury he scored 112, then 108 and then his huge 160 last week.

Mitchell v. Geelong

Rd 2 2012: 141 SC points, 31 disposals
QF 2011: 94 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 12 2011: 92 SC points, 38 disposals
Rd 5 2011: 109 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 2 2010: 64 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 117 SC points, 38 disposals
Rd 1 2009: 127 SC points, 34 disposals
GF 2008: 60 SC points, 13 disposals
Rd 17 2008: 113 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 4 2007: 81 SC points, 13 disposals

Average is 100 SC points with 28 disposals.

Note: Most recently played head to head against Chapman. Had previously been tagged by Ling. A poor 97 last round which had followed scores of 106, 158, 108, 129 and 124.

Pendlebury v. St. Kilda

Rd 21 2011: 156 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 11 2011: 149 SC points, 32 disposals
GF 2010: 123 SC points, 29 disposals
GF 2010: 87 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 106 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 73 SC points, 16 disposals
QF 2009: 22 SC points, 4 disposals
Rd 7 2009: 128 SC points, 28 disposals
SF 2008: 92 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 74 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 123 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 72 SC points, 16 disposals

Average is 96 SC points with 22 disposals.

Note: Pendlebury was injured in the first quarter of the QF in 2009. Take out that score and his average rises to 103 SC points with 24 disposals. Most recently been tagged by Dempster. Since his return from injury, he has scored 136, 127 and 132 (average 132).

Watson v. Adelaide

Rd 14 2010: 89 SC points, 22 disposals
EF 2009: 83 SC points, 14 disposals
Rd 11 2009: 122 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 20 2008: 82 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 127 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 1 2007: 67 SC points, 16 disposals
Rd 10 2006: 91 SC points, 15 disposals

Average is 94 SC points with 21 disposals.

Note: Poor record against Adelaide with only two scores over 100 in seven games. Scored 120 last week which has followed a quiet run of scores of 101, 123 and 93.

Cox v. Fremantle

Rd 9 2012: 68 SC points, 15 disposals, 20 hitouts
Rd 8 2011: 103 SC points, 13 disposals, 19 hitouts
Rd 18 2010: 94 SC points, 14 disposals, 17 hitouts
Rd 6 2010: 96 SC points, 10 disposals, 30 hitouts
Rd 6 2009: 72 SC points, 16 disposals, 19 hitouts
Rd 18 2008: 81 SC points, 25 disposals, 14 hitouts
Rd 3 2008: 86 SC points, 22 disposals, 10 hitouts
Rd 18 2007: 100 SC points, 16 disposals, 27 hitouts
Rd 3 2007: 69 SC points, 16 disposals, 12 hitouts

Average is 85 SC points with 16 disposals and 19 hitouts.

Note: Poor average against Fremantle. Normally has a hard time against Sandilands. Bounced back with 121 last week which had followed two poor scores of 76 and 74.

My opinion: Recent form clearly points to Ablett. It is hard to go past his three round average of 151.

Also pointing to that conclusion is the fact that Port Adelaide are playing Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne are playing Gold Coast. These games might not necessarily be percentage boosters for any of the teams and I don’t see any of the players in these games having huge SC games.

After Ablett, the choice becomes difficult. Based on recent form, I would pick Swan (who still scored 156 in his most recent game against the Saints despite the Jones tag), then Pendlebury and then Thompson (who should continue to enjoy his good form against Essendon at home).

My smoky pick this week is Cyril Rioli who doesn’t have the best record against Geelong but is in great form at the moment with scores of 134, 127, 105 and 159.

Good luck to all!!