Round 20 recap: Eight scores over 150 led by Cox with a huge 190 and Dangerfield with 187. Cotchin followed with 175, Beams with 170, Matthew Wright 170, Josh P. Kennedy with 168, Watson with 154 and Naitanui with 153.

Ablett had the 21st highest score of the round with 126 (which is below his season average of 137). Let’s look at the numbers for the week …
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Ablett v. Hawthorn

Rd 24 2011: 170 SC points, 43 disposals
Rd 13 2011: 144 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 15 2010: 79 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 2 2010: 128 SC points, 38 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 139 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 1 2009: 162 SC points, 35 disposals
GF 2008: 141 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 4 2007: 113 SC points, 17 disposals

Average is 135 SC points with 34 disposals.

Note: Great record against the Hawks. Most recently played head to head against Shiels in the last round of last season when Hawthorn rested a lot of players and scraped by the Suns by 9 points. Coming off scores of 126, 165, 171, 150 and 133 (average of 149).

Pendlebury v. North Melbourne

Rd 16 2011: 160 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 2 2011: 162 SC points, 39 disposals
Rd 7 2010: 70 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 6 2009: 110 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 16 2008: 115 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 5 2008: 89 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 1 2007: 85 SC points, 18 disposals

Average is 113 SC points with 28 disposals.

Note: Fantastic recent record against North Melbourne with scores of 160 (tagged by Firrito) and 162 last year. Since his return from injury, he has scored 132, 127, 136, 126 and 116 (average 127).

Murphy v. Essendon

Rd 4 2012: 120 SC points, 29 disposals
QF 2011: 164 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 18 2011: 131 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 4 2011: 111 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 19 2010: 104 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 105 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 13 2009: 124 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 3 2009: 103 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 87 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 3 2008: 87 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 20 2007: 78 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 3 2007: 94 SC points, 23 disposals

Average is 109 SC points with 26 disposals.

Note: Great recent record against Essendon and has not dipped below 100 against them since 2009. In the eight games from 2009 until present, his average is 120 SC points with 27 disposals. Most recently tagged by Lonergan but had played head to head against Howlett in the huge game where he scored 164. Since returning from injury he scored 112, 108, 160, 109 and then 117 last week (average of 121).

Judd v. Essendon

Rd 4 2012: 91 SC points, 24 disposals
QF 2011: 72 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 18 2011: 197 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 4 2011: 84 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 19 2010: 110 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 13 2009: 79 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 3 2009: 119 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 59 SC points, 12 disposals
Rd 3 2008: 151 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 11 2007: 89 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 8 2006: 123 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 12 2005: 113 SC points, 27 disposals

Average is 107 SC points with 25 disposals.

Note: Poor average against Essendon. One huge score of 197 in Rd 18 last year when he was tagged by Howlett. In the two other games in 2011 and the game in 2012 he was well tagged by Hocking and did not score over 100. Will be raring to go after missing the past four games. In the games prior to his suspension, he had scored 159, 126 and 126 (average of 137).

Thompson v. Brisbane

Rd 20 2011: 127 SC points, 38 disposals
Rd 10 2011: 162 SC points, 36 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 87 SC points, 18 disposals
Rd 9 2010: 87 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 40 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 38 SC points, 15 disposals
Rd 21 2007: 124 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 7 2007: 108 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 11 2006: 86 SC points, 17 disposals
Rd 8 2005: 123 SC points, 21 disposals

Average is 98 SC points with 24 disposals.

Note: Poor record against Brisbane. Good score most recently against Brisbane with a huge score in the game prior to that. Is in poor form with scores of 94, 78, 106 and 92 (average of 93).

Cox v. Port Adelaide

Rd 13 2011: 105 SC points, 14 disposals, 39 hitouts
Rd 2 2011: 129 SC points, 21 disposals, 34 hitouts
Rd 20 2010: 126 SC points, 23 disposals, 29 hitouts
Rd 2 2010: 41 SC points, 7 disposals, 22 hitouts
Rd 2 2009: 116 SC points, 21 disposals, 23 hitouts
Rd 5 2008: 95 SC points, 19 disposals, 23 hitouts
QF 2007: 123 SC points, 20 disposals, 16 hitouts
Rd 15 2007: 60 SC points, 15 disposals, 12 hitouts
Rd 12 2006: 85 SC points, 15 disposals, 10 hitouts
Rd 10 2005: 42 SC points, 17 disposals, 10 hitouts

Average is 92 SC points with 17 disposals and 22 hitouts.

Note: Decent recent record against the Power but a well below average against them before that. Poor record due to being matched up against Brogan/Lade in their prime. A huge 190 last week which had followed scores of 76, 121, 76 and 74.

Watson v. Carlton

Rd 4 2012: 104 SC points, 31 disposals
QF 2011: 67 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 4 2011: 116 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 19 2010: 101 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 119 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 13 2009: 64 SC points, 13 disposals
Rd 3 2009: 123 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 81 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 3 2008: 38 SC points, 16 disposals
Rd 3 2007: 84 SC points, 19 disposals

Average is 90 SC points with 22 disposals.

Note: Most recently tagged by Curnow but tagged by Carrazzo in the game prior to that. Has scored a terrible 38 SC points back in 2008 when he just had a shocker and spent time at full forward as a result. Solid recent form with scores of 154, 143, 120, 101 and 123 (average of 128).

My opinion: The numbers clearly point to Ablett. His five round average of 149 is just too hard to ignore.

Melbourne is playing Greater Western Sydney and Hawthorn is playing Gold Coast. I do not have any confidence that a Melbourne player will score big against the Giants but there are a number of Hawks who should score very well against the Suns. In their Rd 24 clash last year, the Hawks were led by Whitecross with 117, Cameron Bruce with 114, Luke Breust with 114, Paul Johnson with 110 and Puopolo with 101. Sam Mitchell was tagged by Prestia and finished with 26 touches and 93 SC points.

Following Ablett, I would pick Pendlebury playing against North, then Watson playing against Carlton (despite his poor average against them) and then Judd who will be out to prove a point after his return from suspension.

My smoky pick this week, is Lance Franklin (assuming he is named!). He has only played one game against the Suns which was in Rd 13 where he was limited to 3 goals and 4 behinds by Nathan Bock and finished with 89 SC points. If he returns this week, I would expect that he would spend the majority of the game getting back to match fitness in the forward line which should result in a bag of goals.

Good luck to all!!