Round 3 recap: Ablett. What more can I say. Ablett. After his huge 182 SC points from 45 disposals last week (despite being tagged by Howlett and Hocking and even being manned up by Stanton at stages), the only question is how quickly can we all click the “C” to make him captain (or how quickly can we get him into our team). As Jet pointed out in last week’s thread, maybe I should just call this the Vice-Captain’s Log.

Round 3 regrets: Pendlebury. Well, who would have thought that my second choice would be totally outplayed by Carrazzo last week. He had a shocking performance. My smoky for the week, Stanton, didn’t do much better as he was tagged out of the game by Harbrow and only managed 20 touches for 93 SC points.

Here are the numbers for Round 4 (but do you really need to see them??) …
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Swan v. Port Adelaide

Rd 20 2011: 136 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 1 2011: 166 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 15 2010: 127 SC points, 39 disposals
Rd 10 2009: 166 SC points, 48 disposals
Rd 20 2008: 118 SC points, 15 disposals
Rd 4 2007: 118 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 20 2006: 100 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 5 2006: 107 SC points, 22 disposals

Average is 130 SC points with 29 disposals.

Note: Port Adelaide can’t stop him. Is normally (and recently) been tagged by Cassisi after others had failed: Matt Thomas/Chad Cornes (2009), Chad Cornes/Shaun Burgoyne (2008). Still racks up big possession totals and big scores. A quiet start to the year with 92 against Hawthorn in Round 1 followed by 100 in Round 2 against Richmond and then 109 in Round 3 against Carlton.

Ablett v. Brisbane

Rd 21 2011: 134 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 7 2011: 75 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 17 2010: 144 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 8 2010: 102 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 149 SC points, 42 disposals
Rd 22 2007: 99 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 12 2007: 142 SC points, 35 disposals

Average is 119 SC points with 30 disposals.

Note: Three scores over 140 against Brisbane. A poor 75 in Round 7 last year when he received a slight injury to his knee but kept on playing. Tagged by Raines in the two games in 2011 and tagged by Polkinghorne in the two games in 2010. In unbelievable form at the moment with scores of 139, 143 and 182.

Judd v. Essendon

QF 2011: 72 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 18 2011: 197 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 4 2011: 84 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 19 2010: 110 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 13 2009: 79 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 3 2009: 119 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 59 SC points, 12 disposals
Rd 3 2008: 151 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 11 2007: 89 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 8 2006: 123 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 12 2005: 113 SC points, 27 disposals

Average is 112 SC points with 26 disposals.

Note: Notice a pattern? Seems to alternate big scores with low scores (under 90!). Is tagged every game he plays against Essendon. Seems to struggle when tagged by Hocking (QF 2011, Rd 4 2011) or Welsh (Rd 13 2009, Rd 13 2008). Scored his huge 197 in Round 18 last year whilst being tagged by Howlett. Scored his big 151 back in Round 3 2003 whilst being tagged by Peverill. Started the season slowly with 94 in Round 1 but followed with a vintage Judd performance in Round 2 with 150 against Brisbane and then a solid 134 against Collingwood last round.

Pendlebury v. Port Adelaide

Rd 20 2011: 133 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 1 2011: 120 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 15 2010: 125 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 10 2009: 94 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 20 2008: 80 SC points, 18 disposals
Rd 4 2007: 115 SC points, 20 disposals

Average is 111 SC points with 26 disposals.

Note: Low scores in 2009 and 2008 as he was tagged by Cassisi. Since then, Port Adelaide has been more concerned about Swan and have sent Cassisi onto Swan instead. Pendlebury was tagged by Kane Cornes as well as Matt Thomas last year but still managed good scores. Everyone remembers his painful 62 SC points last round when he was tagged out of the game by Carrazzo but don’t forget that his first two rounds this year yielded 167 and 127. Expect him to bounce back this week.

Murphy v. Essendon

QF 2011: 164 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 18 2011: 131 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 4 2011: 111 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 19 2010: 104 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 105 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 13 2009: 124 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 3 2009: 103 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 87 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 3 2008: 87 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 20 2007: 78 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 3 2007: 94 SC points, 23 disposals

Average is 108 SC points with 25 disposals.

Note: Great recent record against Essendon and has not dipped below 100 against them since 2009. In the seven games from 2009 until present, his average is 120 SC points with 27 disposals. Great start to this season with scores of 119, 147 and 130.

My opinion: This may seem like a condensed version and I suppose it is. If you don’t have Ablett and are looking for someone else to put the captaincy on – well, don’t bother. Do what you can to get Ablett into your team. It looks like Ablett’s great form might have made this thread a bit redundant and I might be out of this well paying job of analysing captains very soon, but I think perma-captain is back in the building. Avoid him at your own risk. Lock him in quickly (and lets get back to the Fyfe issue for this round).

For those finding it impossible to get Ablett into your team, Swan’s numbers against Port standout. Despite his slow start to the season, I think that he will have a big game against the Power. Pendlebury will also be hurting after his performance last week and I think that he will feel he has something to prove. Either of these players would be a great choice as captain but I would have Pendlebury slightly in front of Swan.

For my smoky, I note that Brisbane are playing Gold Coast whilst Adelaide play Greater Western Sydney. I like to pick smokies from teams playing against the Suns or Giants as I expect a big loss from those teams. It is interesting to remember that Gold Coast beat Brisbane last year in Round 7 by 8 points (Rich top scored for the Lions with 138) before losing to them in Round 21 by 62 points (Leuenberger top scored with a huge 172). A popular smoky choice would be Rockliff but he only managed scores of 68 and 124 against the Suns last year.

I turn to Adelaide. Thompson likes to beat up on weaker teams as shown by his scores of 163 and 136 against the Suns last year together with his score of 147 in Round 1 this year. He seems too obvious to be a smoky pick so I am going with Tippett who should see plenty of the ball in the forward line and who is in good form so far this season with scores of 150, 82 and 128. He is averaging 17 disposals, 2.5 goals and 10 hitouts in 2011 (after averaging 12 disposals, 1.7 goals and 7 hitouts last season).

Good luck to all!