Round 5 recap: A couple of weeks ago I was thinking how easy this job was: Ablett, our perma-captain was back. Lock him in every week. Flip a coin for your vice captain and sit back and watch Ablett knock out a score over 130. Unfortunately for most of us, and football in general, he has injured himself and now we have to worry about whether we keep him and importantly, for my purposes, who we give the captaincy too. In Round 5 I am hoping that most of you would have used the captain’s loophole and put the “VC” on Pendlebury (140) (my pick) or Swan with his Anzac Medal and 180.

Round 5 regrets: Following the Collingwood players, I had expected Goddard to have a big game against Melbourne and he disappointed all with a score of 58: his second lowest score ever since 2007. My smoky pick of Harvey was looking good at quarter time with over ten touches but he faded for the rest of the game and only finished with 85 against Gold Coast.

The numbers point to a couple of clear choices …
<!--more-->

Swan v. Western Bulldogs

Rd 6 2011: 104 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd QF 2010: 186 SC points, 39 disposals
Rd 11 2010: 118 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 145 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 22 2009: 98 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 136 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 117 SC points, 17 disposals
Rd 8 2007: 80 SC points, 19 disposals

Average is 123 SC points with 28 disposals.

Note: Has played most of his games being matched up against Boyd. Has not yet been tagged by Picken. Came into form last week with a huge 180 (but remember that his average from the four games before that was only 106).

Pendlebury v. Western Bulldogs

Rd 6 2011: 103 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd QF 2010: 146 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 11 2010: 145 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 91 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 85 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 138 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 8 2007: 88 SC points, 21 disposals

Average is 114 SC points with 26 disposals.

Note: Three most recent scores have been over 100 with two big scores in 2010. Was tagged by Picken in Round 1 in 2010 (Picken has tagged Thomas or Wellingham or Didak in other games). Has had one shocking game this season with 62 in Round 3, but taking out that score and his average in his other four games this year is 142.

Selwood v. Melbourne

Rd 19 2011: 155 SC points, 43 disposals
Rd 10 2010: 134 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 161 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 6 2009: 114 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 19 2008: 134 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 3 2008: 51 SC points, 10 disposals
Rd 3 2007: 50 SC points, 16 disposals

Average is 114 SC points with 29 disposals.

Note: Taking out the two low scores in 2008 and 2007 and his average jumps to 140 SC points with 35 disposals. Has been tagged by Jones or McDonald or Moloney in the past but still manages to find the ball. Solid form recently with scores of 144, 140 and 114.

Dal Santo v. Hawthorn

Rd 8 2011: 81 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 17 2010: 77 SC points, 19 disposals
PF 2008: 58 SC points, 15 disposals
Rd 16 2008: 158 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 16 2007: 155 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 8 2007: 67 SC points, 16 disposals

Average is 99 SC points with 22 disposals.

Note: Strange numbers. Two huge scores over 150 and then four terrible scores under 85. Has been tagged by Lewis or Bateman in recent games. He also suffered a broken nose in the Round 17 game in 2010 which may explain that low score. After his huge 148 in Round 1, he has cooled off and has only averaged 107 since.

Goddard v. Hawthorn

Rd 8 2011: 78 SC points, 14 disposals
Rd 17 2010: 97 SC points, 30 disposals
PF 2008: 133 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 16 2008: 85 SC points, 24 disposals

Average is 98 SC points with 26 disposals.

Note: Poor record against Hawthorn with only one score over 100. This season, his three most recent games have yielded 58, 93 and 102. Not in great form.

Mitchell v. St Kilda

Rd 8 2011: 85 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 17 2010: 85 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 19 2009: 111 SC points, 31 disposals
PF 2008: 143 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 16 2008: 79 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 16 2007: 54 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 8 2007: 126 SC points, 35 disposals

Average is 98 SC points with 27 disposals.

Note: One big score against St Kilda but four scores at 85 or under. Is usually tagged by Jones and has also been on the receiving end of a McQualter tag. Coming off a shocking score of only 55 last round.

Franklin v. St Kilda

Rd 8 2011: 122 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 17 2010: 88 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 19 2009: 55 SC points, 19 disposals
PF 2008: 43 SC points, 8 disposals
Rd 16 2008: 59 SC points, 9 disposals
Rd 16 2007: 130 SC points, 17 disposals
Rd 8 2007: 46 SC points, 12 disposals

Average is 78 SC points with 15 disposals.

Note: Really?? These are shocking numbers. Surely Zac Dawson isn’t that good. Well Dawson is gone but these numbers have me very worried. Four scores under 60?? He is coming off scores of 72 and 89 in his two most recent games.

My opinion: Tough decision this week. Based on the numbers above, it would be hard to pick anyone from the Hawthorn and St Kilda game. Swan and Pendlebury should have good games against the Bulldogs who have started the season slowly.

Then, as usual, we consider that Fremantle are playing Gold Coast whilst Carlton is playing Greater Western Sydney. Fremantle is a bit puzzling this year. Sandilands is leading the charge averaging 123 over the first four games. He would be a great pick if he was playing. However, the Docker with the next best average is Mzungu who is averaging 101 through his first five games. The usual suspects are all well down: Barlow (91), Pavlich (88) and Mundy (86). Despite these averages, I would expect that all three of these players will have big games.

I am more interested in the Carlton players matched up against Greater Western Sydney. Judd has not been at his best with scores of 87 and 91. Murphy, however, continues to have a great season averaging 127 through his first five games.

The numbers clearly point to Swan. Pendlebury, on form, is a very solid choice. Selwood, on his great record against Melbourne is hard to ignore. Any of these three players would be a good choice. For me, I would go Pendlebury, Swan and then Selwood.

My smoky pick is probably not much of a smoky but I simply cannot ignore Marc Murphy.

Good luck to all!!