Round 6 recap: Tough decision last week with Ablett missing his second game. My choice was “perma-captain in waiting” Pendlebury who didn’t disappoint with a 145. My second choice Swan was a disappointment with only 112 whilst my third choice of Selwood didn’t even get onto the park. I guessed that there would be no big scores from the Fremantle v. Gold Coast game and Pavlich proved me wrong. With everyone else though, I do wonder how he managed to get a 148.

Round 6 regrets: Carlton beat the Giants by 11 goals and Murphy has 27 disposals – the third most on the ground. Normally that should translate into a big SC score. Instead, in a game where eight players cracked 100, Murphy only managed 89 SC points which probably wasn’t helped by his 48% disposal efficiency.

The question this week is whether Ablett will be back. If not, another tough decision awaits …

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Selwood v. Adelaide

Rd 21 2011: 87 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 144 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 18 2009: 127 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 124 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 121 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 19 2007: 127 SC points, 27 disposals

Average is 122 SC points with 30 disposals.

Note: Fantastic record against the Crows. Struggled in the most recent game which was an 11 point win at Footy Park. That was his only score below 120. Should be well rested after his week off. Solid form recently with scores of 144, 140 and 114.

Franklin v. Melbourne

Rd 18 2011: 132 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 2 2011: 108 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 116 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 9 2009: 112 SC points, 14 disposals
Rd 9 2008: 103 SC points, 14 disposals
Rd 1 2008: 139 SC points, 16 disposals
Rd 2 2007: 62 SC points, 14 disposals

Average is 118 SC points with 18 disposals.

Note: Solid and consistent record against Melbourne. Normally manned up by Frawley or Garland. He is coming off scores of 131, 72 and 89 in his three most recent games.

Swan v. Brisbane

Rd 22 2011: 132 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 10 2010: 122 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 18 2009: 170 SC points, 36 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 73 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 97 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 88 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 9 2007: 117 SC points, 18 disposals

Average is 114 SC points with 27 disposals.

Note: In his three most recent games, he has played head to head with Black or Rich and managed to average 141 with 33 disposals. Had a quiet game last week with only 112 which followed his 180 in the Anzac Day game.

Dal Santo v. Carlton

Rd 24 2011: 89 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 7 2011: 117 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2010: 46 SC points, 12 disposals
Rd 12 2009: 135 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 15 2008: 114 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 91 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 110 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 6 2007: 178 SC points, 30 disposals

Average is 110 SC points with 23 disposals.

Note: Most recently tagged by Armfield but normally cops the Carrazzo tag. Some big scores with some shocking scores. Poor form this season. After his huge 148 in Round 1, he has cooled off and has only averaged 94 since.

Pendlebury v. Brisbane

Rd 22 2011: 108 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 10 2010: 132 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 18 2009: 159 SC points, 36 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 147 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 71 SC points, 12 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 6 SC points, 1 disposal
Rd 9 2007: 132 SC points, 20 disposals

Average is 107 SC points with 23 disposals.

Note: Recently been tagged by Raines or Rischitelli. Average is brought down by the game in 2008 where he struggled in the wet weather in a 2 point loss. He was also injured in the first quarter of the Round 17 game in 2007 with a foot injury hence the single disposal. Taking those games out of his average and his numbers jump to 136 SC points with 31 disposals. Taking out his bad game of 62 in Round 3, his average in his other five games this year is 143. In great form at the moment.

Mitchell v. Melbourne

Rd 18 2011: 111 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 2 2011: 96 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 107 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 107 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 9 2009: 99 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 9 2008: 96 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 1 2008: 131 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 2 2007: 89 SC points, 23 disposals

Average is 105 SC points with 29 disposals.

Note: No big scores except for his 131 back in 2008. Four scores under 100. Has recently been tagged by McKenzie (Rd 19 2011), Bail (Rd 2 2011), McDonald (Rds 1 and 20 2010). Started off the season with 139 and 141 but since then has only averaged 94 (in four games).

Goddard v. Carlton

Rd 24 2011: 97 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 7 2011: 86 SC points, 16 disposals
Rd 7 2010: 117 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 12 2009: 129 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 15 2008: 64 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 6 2007: 76 SC points, 17 disposals

Average is 95 SC points with 22 disposals.

Note: Poor record against Carlton. Most recently tagged by Lucas but previously has played head to head against Gibbs. High score of only 129 with four scores under 100. This season, his three most recent games have yielded 93, 58 and 120. Not yet at his best.

Judd v. St Kilda

Rd 24 2011: 81 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2011: 99 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 7 2010: 106 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 12 2009: 99 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 15 2008: 120 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 71 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 21 2007: 31 SC points, 10 disposals
Rd 18 2006: 123 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 1 2006: 107 SC points, 23 disposals

Average is 93 SC points with 23 disposals.

Note: Taking out the game in 2007 when he was injured, his average rises slightly to 101 SC points with 24 disposals. Not the best record against St Kilda and no recent big scores. Has not been tagged by Jones but has recently played against Montagna, Gilbert or Hayes. Will be rested after having last week off. Poor recent scores of 87 and 91.

Murphy v. St Kilda

Rd 24 2011: 115 SC points, 36 disposals
Rd 7 2011: 90 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2010: 75 SC points, 17 disposals
Rd 12 2009: 105 SC points, 16 disposals
Rd 15 2008: 45 SC points, 15 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 142 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 68 SC points, 14 disposals
Rd 6 2007: 63 SC points, 12 disposals

Average is 88 SC points with 20 disposals.

Note: Very poor record against St Kilda with only three scores over 100. Only one big score back in 2008. Has been tagged by Jones in every game since 2009. Will be looking to make amends for his poor 89 against the Giants last week.

My opinion: Another hard choice this week based on the numbers. Last week I was reluctant to pick anyone from the Hawthorn and St Kilda game. Similarly, this week I am reluctant to pick anyone from the Carlton and St Kilda game.

If Ablett was playing, lock him in against Greater Western Sydney – even if he is only playing on one knee. Behind Ablett, I am struggling to think who else can score big in this game – Giles? Bennell? Too risky I think.

Swan and Pendlebury have great recent records against Brisbane and, again, I expect them to have big games. A rested Selwood should continue his good form against Adelaide. This week I would pick Ablett if he was playing. Following Ablett, I can’t go past Pendlebury who nudges out Swan. Selwood would then be my next choice.

My smoky pick this week is Buddy Franklin who I think will have a field day against the struggling Demons. He is the classic high risk high reward player.

Good luck to all!!