Just putting the discussion out there and I do understand it will come under scrutiny. What I'm thinking of doing is getting as many Cows in my side as possible and Having around 500 to 700k in the bank to reduce upgrade/downgrade trades and allow some other cows to fully mature. My thinking is that in each line I'm willing to take a risk on 2 midpricers in each line hopefully one becomes a keeper aka Malsexy 2010. And have rookies/prems fill other positions. Currently my side structure is(including bench): BKS 3 keepers, 2 mid, 5 rookies. MID 2 Prems, 3 mid, 4 rookies. RUC 2 Prem, 1 Droopy (Backup), 1 Rookie. FWD 3 Prem, 3 Mid(lower end, Krak V2011), 4 Rk What I'm hoping for or willing to take a gamble on is that one Mid-Pricer in each line cracks the 100pt mark (hopefully 2 in MID/FWD) Which Will leave 12 upgrades across all lines. A lot more than most sides going in with 14 premiums/Keepers who are looking at 8 on-field rookie upgrades. Yet I come out with only 4 on-field rookie upgrades. If it plays out they way I want(always wishful thinking), by round 6-8 my 4 rookie's on field will share the 'cash in the bank', about 150k each and go straight to premiums. Leaving 8 mid-pricer upgrades for the rest of the season. With their Head start in price and hopefully also price increases of a few mid-pricers. It should only mean 5 upgrade/downgrades (or 10 more trades) of rookies with mid-pricers to fill out a side. I'd be happy if by round 13 a player like JPK was M6 scoring 95 avg. So on a count this is only 14 trades by round 13. Leaving 10 trades to perfection. (and of course injury cover). I know many who have had success with the GNR strategy will have a few things to say. But I think there are too many breakout players in the mid-priced bracket(200-500k). And too many overvalued premiums who will drop due to age/injuries/position changes.
That can certainly work for league competition and a bloke from work did that last year with great success as he ended with a very strong team when it mattered. It won't, however, be competitive I wouldn't think for overall where there is a necessity to get the points on the park as early as possible before the rest of the compeition upgrades as well. You will be losing too many points at the start by having 500-700k simply sitting in the bank, not earning you points. Mid priced players are almost as speculative as rookies, if not more. Most people thought last year that Dangerfield would take the next jump but he didn't, and when a mid priced player doesnt jump, you're left with a player scoring less than a premium and perhaps not much more than a rookie, and they wont have appreciated to have been worthwhile as a cow, either. I see your theory, but picking the couple of midpriced players that will actually take the next step is nigh impossible. You spend 300k on a midpriced player who doesn't make the jump (he's priced at around ~62ppg) and he only average ~65 for the season. He is left in no mans land as that wont be good enough at the end to have starting, and he hasnt earnt you money, either. Conversely, you spend ~110k on a rookie who scores similarly. He has saved you 200k at the start which might have allowed you to squeeze another keeper in.
hmmm. consider how many trades you will need to do your upgrades. I kinda worked out that you generally need to use 2 trades to upgrade to a premium. eg. upgrade to a premium Trade 1. cash cow reaches $300,000 you trade out and get in another $100,000 and make $200,000. Trade 2. cash cow 2 reaches $300,000 you trade in $500,000 premium. yes I know there are variations to this, how fat you let cash cows get blah blah. just think about how many trades you need to use, thats all I am saying...you need to have some up your sleeve for injuries as well etc
Thanks for the reply spud. I'm really trying to find a nice balance between a good gamble and a safe bet. Doing this while trying to have a unique side with most of the main offenders in is really hard. I keep trying to go with a GNR strategy but there are a few Mid-Pricers that I think will be golden this year. Names like JPK, Foley(injury less???), Krak V2011. and some others I will keep til rate my team threads. So I think with so many following like sheep into the GNR strategy I will take a big Punt and Go for the Mid-pricer strategy. Gets me a mimimum of 3 Prems(not just Keepers) across all lines and filled my side with mid-pricers on-field and save the rookies for the bench. Please refer to this post later in the season when I crash and burn......
@dammfunky If I was going for a midpricer strategy with most MP's = 300k (not taking in their own possible price increases) it would be the same 2 trades to make a premium. But this upgrade would take place sooner in the season.(Not having to wait for the second rookie to Moo, and leaving cash in the bank doing nothing for points.) I think the big risk I will take with this strategy is in the timing for my upgrades. It is either done at the right time with the right players or It will blow up in my face. I think the Ticker will help out heaps with these decisions.
Crunch the numbers odds wise and picking mids to keep / moo is harder than rookies imo. Like has been said Ziebell / Dangerfield ect hurt a lot of people (I never got on the wagon) last season. Picking 6 numbers to win tatts sounds easy to but.....If you pick well and avoid injury I can see your point for sure but for every Eski there's 15 mids that dont move much if at all and then the ones that go backwards....If you run as bad as me with injury then you'd be a dead man walking. Regardless I would be interested for updates on this over the season if you can as we could all learn from this as the season progresses.
Yeah will keep ya updated crew. Still not settled on the team as things will prob change on friday. Last draft was one where all the cash was used up. and just for the hell of it I will post this team. Lots of Midpricers....... BKS: Goddard, Enright, Grimes, Hurley, Wilson, E.Wood, Astbury bench: D.Stanley, Duigan, Hibberd MIDS: Selwood, Boak, Kennedy, Rich, Folley, Melksham bench: Heppell, Harris, Libba/Wallis Rucks: Sandi, Cox bench Bellchambers, J.Tippet FWDS: Franklin, Harvey, Goodes, R.Gray, Petrie, Krak V2011 bench: Richardson, Matera, S.McKernan Going very high risk. 29k left in bank. Will downgrade Positions 6 and 7 to a rook if named first round. Banking on midpricers going to prem/keeper status. Not planning on entering round one without boak, kennedy, Foley, Rich, Hurley. All others risky midpricers are there just to see structure but this team suffers minimal bye trauma. Big dollars spent on ruck rotations which is just an insurance policy at the moment. No real rookies starting onfield except F7 which is only coz petrie got rubbed out. This will become the crash and Burn Diaries of a midprice fanatic.......