Changes to the Supercoach Formula.

Discussion in 'Blog' started by bbas2910, Mar 22, 2011.

By bbas2910 on Mar 22, 2011 at 11:00 AM
  1. bbas2910

    bbas2910 New Member

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    Alright, looks like Champion Data have tweaked the way they calculate their Supercoach points.

    The article can be found <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/ranking-mixture-spiced-up/story-e6frf9jf-1226025762939">here[/url]

    These tweak dont look to have been used when determining new salaries, so if we take a look- we should be able to find a bit of an advantage- no matter how small. Where they really take effect is with the premiums who you are looking to get a couple of points out of.

    So, lets check em out over the break

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    <blockquote>
    Similarly, free kicks against have gone from minus six points to minus four because Champion Data has found they are not as critical to team performance.
    </blockquote>

    Now, if we grab the greatest offenders from last year, we can see how much more they *should* have scored under the new formula.

    NameFA

    Dean Brogan4.6

    Michael Osborne4

    Ed Barlow4

    Mark Jamar4

    Darren Jolly4

    Lance Franklin4

    Brad Ottens4

    Daniel Jackson3.86

    Brock McLean3.67

    Leon Davis3.67

    Nathan Lovett-Murray3.67

    Domenic Cassisi3.64

    Cameron Ling3.56

    Stephen Milne3.52

    Luke Hodge3.52

    Mitch Clark3.37

    Brad Sewell3.33

    Byron Schammer3.33

    Nick Suban3.29

    Colin Sylvia3.2


    Makes a big case for Franklin who is automatically 4ppg under priced due to this change, but a couple of other big names are Jolly, Neon if you swing that way, Hodge when hes back from injury and Colin Sylvia who, based on this is at least 3.2ppg under priced.

    <blockquote>
    Turnovers are no longer marked as hard because the forward press forces more of them.
    </blockquote>

    Now,its unknown exactly how many points this one will actually add to a player, so Im just going to list the average TOs per game and we can speculate from their.

    NameTurnovers

    Matthew Boyd10.1

    Dane Swan9.8

    Liam Anthony9.7

    Chris Judd9.4

    Sam Mitchell9.2

    Leigh Montagna9

    Colin Sylvia8.5

    Daniel Connors8.4

    Luke Hodge8.3

    Shane Tuck8.2

    Adam Goodes8.1

    Ryan Griffen8.1

    Brent Moloney8.1

    Bradley Ebert8

    Andrew Embley8

    Gary Ablett8

    Kane Cornes8

    Michael Barlow7.9

    Brett Deledio7.9

    Travis Boak7.8

    Adam Cooney7.8


    Unsuprisingly, the most turnovers are generated by those guys who get the most votes. I wonder how much these TOs are worth- surely just a percentage of a point? or does this mean there could be some huge upside to the DreamTeam stars, Boyd, Swan and even Sylvia?

    *amended changes*

    <blockquote>Uncontested mark from teammate 2 Points from 1 point</blockquote>

    nameUncontested Marks

    Brian Lake8.1364

    Sam Gilbert7.0909

    Sam Fisher6.9000

    Darren Milburn6.7895

    Jason Blake6.4091

    Nathan Bock6.3077

    Andrew Mackie6.2857

    Cheynee Stiller6.1111

    Robert Murphy6.0000

    Liam Anthony6.0000

    Heath Grundy5.9545

    Nick Riewoldt5.9091

    Cale Morton5.9000

    Bret Thornton5.8333

    Brad Green5.8182

    Jarrod Harbrow5.6842

    Brent Stanton5.6500

    Adam Goodes5.6364

    Brady Rawlings5.6364

    Paul Bevan5.6154


    Now, apparently these only relate to forward kicks, so while they mightnt be great for the Lakes of the world, Roo and Goodes will love it!

    Additionally, 2 new stats have been added under the hood.

    <blockquote>Long kick to advantage - 7 points
    </blockquote>

    nameLong kicks

    Brett Deledio7

    Paul Chapman6.9

    Leigh Montagna6.8

    Brendon Goddard6.8

    Daniel Jackson6.7

    Daniel Connors6.7

    Nick Malceski6.7

    Paul Duffield6.7

    Matthew Pavlich6.5

    Quinten Lynch6.4

    Josh Drummond6.4

    Ryan Griffen6.4

    Richard Douglas6.4

    Shannon Hurn6.4

    Danyle Pearce6.3

    James Gwilt6.3

    Sam Mitchell6.3

    Heath Scotland6.2

    Heath Shaw6.1

    Andrew Mackie6


    Now, firstly remember- these are already currently worth 4 points, and must be effective to take the points (which is something the above doesnt!). That said, it makes Lids and Goddard even tastier.

    <blockquote>Mark on lead - 5 points
    </blockquote>

    nameMarks in 50

    Daniel Bradshaw4.8

    Barry Hall3.8

    Nick Riewoldt3.6

    Jack Riewoldt3.6

    Jonathan Brown3.6

    Jarryd Roughead3

    Travis Cloke3

    James Podsiadly2.9

    Kurt Tippett2.9

    Steve Johnson2.9

    Kyle Hardingham2.8

    Cameron Mooney2.8

    Brendan Fevola2.6

    Lance Franklin2.6

    Brad Green2.5

    Mark Lecras2.5

    Jay Schulz2.5

    Brett Burton2.5

    Brett Ebert2.4

    Ricky Petterd2.3


    This is a 3 point increase from the current uncontested mark, but still a 1 point decrease from the current contested mark. The above doesnt neccessarily relate to a lead-up mark, but it does show a fair indication on the type of player that should see a couple of PPG increase due to it. Hello tall and lead-up forwards!

    <blockquote>
    "Clangers" have been converted into one stat -4 points, Clanger kick down from -8 Points and Clanger handball down from -6 Points
    </blockquote>

    NameClangers

    Ed Barlow4.0000

    Lance Franklin3.9412

    Stephen Milne3.9048

    Colin Sylvia3.8667

    Daniel Jackson3.7143

    Byron Schammer3.6667

    Nathan Lovett-Murray3.6667

    Jared Brennan3.5556

    Matthew Boyd3.5000

    Brock McLean3.3333

    Travis Boak3.3000

    Domenic Cassisi3.2727

    Sam Gilbert3.2727

    Sam Mitchell3.2222

    Luke Hodge3.1905

    Adam Goodes3.1818

    Brendan Fevola3.1765

    Jarrad Waite3.1333

    Brent Moloney3.1111

    Dean Brogan3.1000

    Ryan OKeefe3.0952


    Now, this one could be a huge benefit! If Buddy was averaging 4 clangers by foot per game, then were looking at a massive 16ppg increase from it! Same probably goes for Sylvia as well!

    *end amended changes*

    A rumour that I heard earlier in the year when I first heard that CD were tweaking their formula. When a player gets a contested possession, and is infringed before they dispose of it (ie- Selwood picks up the ball in a pack and the slides an arm up to his neck) - last year- the disposal was chalked up from a contested possession. This year, its only chalked up as uncontested. Someone has mentioned to me that all free kicks are contested possessions- so Im not exactly sure how much this will affect the players listed- but unlike the chart, being high on this one is probably a bad thing.

    Adam Selwood2.56

    Hamish Hartlett2.5

    Andrew Swallow2.36

    Joel Selwood2.29

    Dean Brogan2.25

    Luke Hodge2.05

    Mark Jamar2.05

    Daniel Cross2.05

    Sam Reid2

    Daniel Kerr2

    Matt Priddis2

    Lance Franklin1.94

    Jimmy Bartel1.9

    Jude Bolton1.86

    Marc Murphy1.86

    Sam Mitchell1.83

    Trent Cotchin1.82

    Angus Monfries1.82

    Dean Cox1.82

    Nick Riewoldt1.82


    Unsuprisingly, J. Selwood features prominately in this chart, but also to look at is A. Swallow!

    Finally, the last rumour I heard was
    <blockquote>
    Gaining possesion from a hit out will not automatically be regarded as a contested posession.
    </blockquote>

    Name1st Possession

    Matt Priddis8.5

    Matthew Boyd8.4

    Chris Judd7.8

    Jobe Watson7.8

    Sam Mitchell7.4

    Brent Moloney7.1

    Simon Black6.7

    Dane Swan6.5

    Shaun Burgoyne6.4

    Lenny Hayes6.3

    Josh P Kennedy6.3

    Adam Cooney6.2

    Aaron Sandilands6.1

    Shane Tuck6

    Gary Ablett6

    Joel Selwood5.9

    Andrew Swallow5.8

    Luke Ball5.7

    David Mundy5.6

    Benjamin Hudson5.6


    Again, this is a rumour, and its unknown the exact effect of it, but hey- it could be worth considering...

    Anyways, its very late in the piece, but better late than never with this info, right!!
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by bbas2910, Mar 22, 2011.

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