Cookie Cutters

Discussion in 'Blog' started by ~walesy, Mar 6, 2013.

By ~walesy on Mar 6, 2013 at 11:00 AM
  1. walesy

    walesy Administrator Staff Member

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    <p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 17.990449905395508px;]Cookie-cutter&amp;rdquo; is a term often used in fantasy football, particularly in the pre-season, to describe a generic team line-up. As with an actual cookie-cutter, if everyone uses them then all our cookies end up looking the same.
    <p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 17.990449905395508px;]While there certainlyisn'tanything wrong with using cookie-cutter players, whom the majority of coaches will select, it is important to consider how many of them to select and which ones.
    The term POD&amp;rdquo;, or Point Of Difference, is another one bandied about often in fantasy football, and is essentially the opposite of a cookie-cutter. These players are the ones that will hopefully score at a similar level to their cookie-cutter counterparts, but that will for whatever reason not be selected by as many coaches and can therefore offer a significant advantage.
    <p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 17.990449905395508px;]The right mix of cookie-cutters and POD's is essential for success in all form of fantasy football, POD's are great but only if they score higher than their opposing players, but more often than not the cookie-cutter players are cookie-cutters because they are amongst the best in their position. Clich&amp;eacute;'s become clich&amp;eacute;'s for a reason.
    <p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 17.990449905395508px;]Here we'll take a look at what the cookie-cutter line-up will most likely be for 2013, and which players you should and probably shouldn't consider including in yours. We'll break it down position by position, starting with the back-line.

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    DEFENSE
    Each line is looking decidedly different this year in terms of set-up, and the defense is an interesting one as the two main locks have both had significant changes over the off season. The guys I'm talking about here, are Brendon Goddard and Bryce Gibbs.
    Brendon Goddard (ESS) Position D/M SC price 541.5k 2012 avg. 100
    Goddard had been a defensive lock in fantasy football teams for years now, as a dual position player (DPP) defender/midfielder he controlled the Saints backline and had a clearly defined role. Now he has moved to Essendon and is set for a mainly midfield role his number will hopefully see an increase and should be the first picked defender in most teams. Essendon worries and an uncertainty of role should not put many coaches off.
    Bryce Gibbs (CAR) D/M 509.8k 95
    Gibbsy lost his DPP status last season, becoming a midfielder only and writing himself out of contention for many SC and DT teams. He then spent the majority of the season playing a similar role to previous years, in an often poor Carlton side, and failed to really fire. In 2013 under new coach Malthouse he looks set for a much more midfield oriented attacking role, but has been given his defensive DPP status back for fantasy sports and should be great value in the backline.
    Aside from Gibbs and Goddard the cookie-cutter backline will likely include one to two blokes from the next group of players, and again for good reason. While they won't quite rack up the selections of the first two, they will all likely be found in a lot of teams and will form the backbone of a lot of defences.
    Heath Shaw (COL) DEF 541.3k 100
    Beau Waters (WCE) DEF 536.5k 100
    Grant Birchall (HAW) DEF 506.4k 94
    Dyson Heppell (ESS) D/M 450k 83
    Greg Broughton (GCS) D/F 441.9k 82
    Shaw and Waters are solid players and will essentially only need to maintain current outputs to be great additions to any team, while Birchall only needs a small increase to truly break into the ranks of premium defenders. Heppell is an interesting one after a bit of a slow 2nd season he should have some good improvement this year, but with Goddard's addition to the Dons engine room he may see a more defensive role. Broughton's move to Gold Coast will tempt many coaches into grabbing him this year, and his role in NAB has been promising, but personally I've been burnt too many times to go back to him again. Having said that, his defender/forward positioning is quite handy, and this could well be the year he can finally step up to his potential.
    This next group of players will likely only manage one entry per team between them, but could well make or break a coach's season. They're the high-risk, high-reward players who offer so much potential, but haven't quite delivered on it just yet.
    Paul Duffield (FRE) DEF 496.7k 92
    Duffman has been a solid if inconsistent fantasy option for a couple of years now, but was also competing for the running half-back role with Broughton. Since Broughton has now gone to the Suns that may hopefully open up this role for Duffield alone, and increase his scoring nicely. If he can regularly perform at his higher levels he should be a good pick-up.
    Hamish Hartlett (PTA) D/M 489k 91
    Hartlett has showed a lot of potential when he has played, but has had a horrible run with injuries. After a better run in 2012 he managed 15 games mainly as a midfielder, and if he can manage to stay fit, could well join the ranks of elite defenders.
    Shannon Hurn (WCE) DEF 488.8k 91
    Hurn has been a risky fantasy choice for a while now, while his DT numbers are usually pretty poor he can have one of the higher DT:SC conversion rates in the game when he's playing well. A good average from 2012 and quality players around him mean he will having more than a few coaches taking the punt on him.
    Jed Adcock (BRI) DEF 482.3k 89
    Adcock will be looking to have more of an impact on the field in 2013, after being named co-captain for the Lions during the break. Inconsistency is his worst issue, but if he strings together a good pre-season expect many coaches to jump on.
    Jack Grimes (MEL) DEF 472.4k 88
    Grimey is another classic high-potential player who has frustrated many fantasy coaches for years now, showing great skills and run both off half-back and through the midfield but constantly getting injured and not seeing out a season. He improved in that regard in 2012 and at one stage in the second half of the year managed to average 105+ SC points per game (PPG) over 7 games. With an improving side he could be another player to break into the defensive elite, but will have to stay injury free first of all.
    Pearce Hanley (BRI) DEF 485.2k 90
    Hanley had somewhat of a break-out year in 2012, averaging 91 SC points over 22 games in a generally losing side. One of the safer&amp;rdquo; mid-priced choices in the backline he will be a popular choice this year and should be a good one.
    Matt Suckling (HAW) DEF 442.4k 82
    Suckling has been on peoples radar's for a couple of years now, when he's at his best his disposal is exceptional, however some question marks remain about who will be playing what role down back for the Hawks. With Lake to come into the side and Gibson and Birchall already liking to run off their man it will be interesting to see who ends up having to play a strict shut-down role.
    Alex Rance (RIC) DEF 464.8k 86
    Rance showed in 2012 that he is capable of some good football and solid scores when allowed to play a bit looser in the Tigers back-line, and has many Richmond supporters already locking him into their squads this year. How the return of Dylan Grimes and the addition of Nick Vlaustin will affect things remains to be seen, but Rance certainly has the potential to be a top-notch fantasy defender.
    The pre-season rookie choices will generally change week to week, as different ones get games and so on, but at the moment most teams will have one or two of the following players in their squad based on performances so far or draft hype.
    Nick Vlaustin (RIC) D/M 159.5k
    Sam Colquhoun (PTA) D/M 109.5k
    Jasper Pittard (PTA) DEF 128k
    Sam Docherty (BRI) DEF 115.9k
    Brett Goodes (WBD) D/M 128.2k
    Obviously they'll all need to be watched to see whether they look like getting early game time and stay fit etc. but so far they've generally managed to impress.
    Charlie Dixon (GCS) DEF 393.3k 73
    Dixon is my left-field defensive choice, and in 2012 played through half-back and also the forward line, while chopping out in the ruck. His average isn't particularly impressive, but if he can continue to improve he may well end up averaging near 90.
    MIDFIELD
    The midfield. Where the big scores usually come from, and as of this season, where the biggest group of players are in your team. There are a lot of quality midfielders to choose from here, so we'll get started with the elites. We'd expect most teams to be starting two of these players.
    Gary Ablett Jr (GCS) MID 740.5k 138
    Scott Pendlebury (COL) MID 667.3k 124
    Josh P Kennedy (SYD) MID 6436 119
    Dane Swan (COL) MID 675.3k 125
    Dayne Beams (COL) MID 657.6k 122
    Patrick Dangerfield (ADE) MID 636k 118
    Jobe Watson (ESS) MID 647.2k 120
    Gazza is still the elite player in SC, and not too shabby in DT either, while Swan takes out the number one spot in the DT honours with Pendles happily in the top echelon in both. All are consistent and have been at the highest level for a few years now. JPK, Beams, Danger and Watson are all fairly new to the elite category, some not quite averaging 120 in 2012 even, but should all make up the core of most midfields this year. Danger has the lowest average of these players, but after putting on some more muscle over the pre-season he is looking like being a real force this season. Most teams will likely start with around two of these players, but hope to trade the majority of others in through the year.
    The next group of players are the premiums that will make up the remainder of the midfield grunt in most starting teams, before adding in a risky selection or two and then the rookie selections to fill it out. All of these players have the potential to become elite players, or have previously been, and picking the best of these guys early can make a real difference as they will likely stay in your team for the season. Again we'd expect one or two players from this list in most starting sides.
    Trent Cotchin (RIC) MID 622.1k 115
    Marc Murphy (CAR) MID 602.9k 112
    Brett Deledio (RIC) MID 624.1k 116
    Joel Selwood (GEE) MID 629.5k 117
    Matthew Boyd (WBD) MID 605.8k 112
    Sam Mitchell (HAW) MID 592.6k 110
    Scott Thompson (ADE) MID 591k 110
    Matt Priddis (WCE) MID 588.3k 109
    Cotchin earned many new fans in 2012 with a break-out year, and if he can continue to improve could easily step up to elite this season. With a move to a more midfield-oriented role Deledio had a great season, even by his standards, but may be overlooked by some due to remaining a midfielder only. Priddis is a consistent and reliable choice, who should give peace of mind along with his near 110 average, and Matthew Boyd, Scott Thompson and Sam Mitchell have all proven over many years that they can get the job done. Selwood is looking likely to be avoided by quite a few coaches over concussion concerns, so if he can play out a full season could be a really good grab. Marc Murphy had a slowish season with some injury concerns last year but will be looking to impress his new coach and has played well in the NAB.
    The next group here is the midfield potential stars. By no means are these guys duds, hell they almost all average over 100 in SC, but they haven't made it into the top 10 scorers or so yet but coaches will be looking for them to do so. The majority of coaches will only have one or two players from here in their side.
    Shane Tuck (RIC) MID 613.4k 114
    Kieren Jack (SYD) MID 601.4k 112
    Andrew Swallow (NM) MID 585.1k 109
    Callan Ward (GWS) MID 570.1k 106
    Brock McLean (CAR) MID 568.6k 106
    Ryan Griffen (WBD) MID 567.4k 105
    Steele Sidebottom (COL) MID 568.4k 105
    Rory Sloane (ADE) MID 567.7k 105
    Brent Stanton (ESS) MID 559.7k 104
    Luke Shuey (WCE) MID 553.1k 103
    Chris Judd (CAR) MID 558.3k 104
    Ryan O'Keefe (SYD) MID 555.4k 103
    Scott Selwood (WCE) MID 556.7k 103
    Jack Redden (BRI) MID 550.1k 102
    Nick Dal Santo (StK) MID 544.8k 101
    Harley Bennell (GCS) MID 521.9k 97
    Shane Tuck, Kieren Jack and Andrew Swallow should all probably be in the previous group, but for whatever reason will most likely not see as many starting selections as those others. After a slow 2012 Swallow is set for a big year, and Tuck will be overlooked by the majority of non-Richmond supporters. Jack is an often unheralded, but quality player. Sloane has been a year behind Dangerfield in development so far, and could really explode this season. He should also benefit from Dangerfield receiving more taggers and Thompson being tagged occasionally. Sidebottom, Stanton and Selwood all started 2012 with a bang, but died down a bit as the season wore on. If they can start the same way this season, and maintain it for longer, they are all capable of becoming the 120+ ppg players we're all searching for. Shuey, Ward, Griffen, Redden and Bennell are all improving each season and should continue to do so, while Dal Santo, ROK and Juddy are all previously true premium players who could well return to form.
    David Swallow (GCS) MID 418.2k 77
    David Swallow is my left-field pick for the midfielders. After injury hampered him in his first two seasons, as a third year player with a solid pre-season under his belt he may well really start to shine this season. He is priced a little on the high side, but is certainly capable of increasing that average by a solid amount if he can stay fit all year. Gold Coast have looked a lot better team so far in the pre-season and will be hoping to carry this momentum in to the season proper.
    Kane Mitchell (PTA) MID 126.2k (Rookie listed)
    Oliver Wines (PTA) MID 169.5k
    Jesse Lonergan (GCS) MID 139.5k
    Jaeger O'Meara (GCS) MID 115.9k
    Brad Crouch (ADE) MID 115.9k
    Jimmy Toumpas (MEL) MID 184.5k
    Jack Viney (MEL) MID 109.5k
    Nathan Hrovat (WBD) MID 114.5k
    Jackson Macrae (WBD) MID 174.5k
    Again as they're rookies these selections may change each week, but these guys have all put up their hand for fantasy selection come round 1. The majority of teams will likely have 3-4 of these players already.
    RUCK
    The ruck is an interesting position this season, as DPP looks to be more important than ever with the majority of the top 5 ruckmen all being forward eligible also. This offers up the nice advantage of being able to switch players between the lines for additional coverage and can also help out with the Captains Loophole (see other TS articles). This season many teams will be looking at one ruck from this list and probably one forward (DPP). The leading group of six ruck contenders is as follows.
    Ivan Maric (RIC) RUC 606.9k 113
    Dean Cox (WCE) R/F 600.7k 111
    Patrick Ryder (ESS) R/F 564.3k 105
    Jarryd Roughead (HAW) R/F 554.8k 103
    Sam Jacobs (ADE) RUC 546.3k 101
    Ben McEvoy (StK) RUC 557.4k 103
    Maric had a true break-out year in 2012, going from somewhat un-rated big man to the leading ruckman in fantasy land. Should be in for another big year but expect more opposition clubs to work on shutting him out of games. Coxy is still one of the ruck greats in SC, and his new DPP certainly doesn't hurt his case for selection. With Nicnat in doubt for the season opener this makes the big Cox all the more appealing. Ryder had an interrupted season and the Dons had their own worries, but he still managed to average a very solid 105 over the games he did play. Bellchambers may start to take some ruck time off Ryder however, and therefore should be watched. Roughie is another solid choice but may play a more forward oriented role this season and McEvoy will be a popular selection after remaining the sole true ruck for the Sainters. Jacobs was outstanding last year, and once he gets into form this is likely to continue.
    Mid-priced rucks have really gone out of fashion in fantasy football terms recently, however that may well now change after Maric's success in 2012. Doubts around some of the leading rucks (Sandi, Goldy, Nicnat) may well lead a lot of coaches to look to the lesser lights, and these players should certainly at least be considered. Currently Goldy and Burger have made their way into many squads, but these players should all be looked at closely before committing.
    David Hale (HAW) R/F 511.6k 95
    Hale should once again take the mantle of number one ruck at Hawthorn, and will be overlooked by many coaches due to his relatively low media profile. An average not much shy of 100 in a premiership contending team make him a solid if not spectacular selection with some serious POD credentials. Interestingly enough the Ticker shows the Hawks as not leaking many points in the ruck at all, also something to keep in mind.
    Matthew Leuenberger (BRI) RUC 301.1k 56
    The Burger had a slow 2012 and as such has dropped in price (SC) all the way down to around 300k. As a mid-priced option and the clear number one ruck at his team he is definitely worth looking at, however his NAB form to date hasn't particularly impressed.
    Matthew Kreuzer (CAR) RUC 494.1k 92
    Kreuzer has been a long-time member of the potential break-out&amp;rdquo; club, and this year is no different. A new coach and an improved pre-season indicate that Kreuz could well take off this year, and finally live up to the hype, but it must be said that this has been a pattern with Kreuz for a while now. He already has a solid if not spectacular average and if he can improve by around 10ppg will break into the top echelon of fantasy rucks, but with Kreuzer unfortunately these are always big ifs.
    Todd Goldstein (NM) RUC 497.9k 92
    Goldy struggled in 2012, not really managing to gel with McIntosh, and unfortunately seems to have carried that into the pre-season. While McIntosh will no longer be an issue, two of the most promising rucks from the NAB in Currie and Daw are fighting it out for a spot on the North Melbourne list and either has the potential to take points from Goldy. His no possession game earlier in the NAB doesn't help his case either.
    Daniel Currie (NM) RUC 109.5k OR
    Majak Daw (NM) RUC 115.9k
    Brodie Grundy (COL) RUC 114.5k
    For the rookie rucks there is really only one team anyone is watching, and that's North. Their two new rucks in Currie and Daw have both impressed in their NAB showings, and the eventual winner will surely be in the majority of starting teams come round 1. Grundy has also had a lot of hype, and was rated by some in the top five of the draft, and should be watched closely for signs of early game-time. If there isn't one of these guys in at least 80% of teams come round 1 I'll be amazed.
    Cameron Pedersen (MEL) D/R 278.2k 51
    Cam is the left-field selection for the rucks, after struggling for game-time at North Melbourne he will be hoping to get better chances with the Dees in 2013. Jamar hasn't been in great form for some time now, and if he performs well early Cam could well lock himself into the Melbourne 22.
    FORWARDS
    The forwards are another interesting bunch, with the high scorers coming either in the form of goal kicking machines, M/F DPP's and now R/F's as well. The main R/F's have been covered briefly in the ruck section, as there is less choice there, so we'll be focussing on the strict forwards and M/F's here. Most teams will be looking to start two or three of these guys.
    Lance Franklin (HAW) FWD 618k 115
    <strong style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.888888359069824px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 12.499999046325684px; background-color: #ffffff;]Matthew Pavlich (FRE) FWD 593.5 110

    [/b]
    Taylor Walker (ADE) FWD 536k 99
    Jimmy Bartel (GEE) M/F 527.4k 98
    Tom Rockliff (BRI) M/F 520.5k 97
    Paul Chapman (GEE) M/F 535.6k 99
    Cyril Rioli (HAW) M/F 527.3k 98
    Dale Thomas (COL) M/F 515.8k 96
    Jordan Lewis (HAW) M/F 513.4k 95
    Steve Johnson (GEE) M/F 516.7k 96
    The forward line is again dominated by Buddy this season, but with some handy players gaining DPP eligibility during the off-season he should at least have some company. Pav is coming a close second, and if he can stay injury free should be in for another good year. Bartel has looked good so far in the NAB, and Rocky has already locked himself into the majority of fantasy footy teams. Chappy, Rioli and Stevie J are all solid choices but decent chances to miss games going on history and age, while Daisy needs to step up to the next level. Lewis is a solid contributor, and reliable, but will need to also lift his game by a few ppg to really make it to the top. Tex took his game to a new level last year, and if he can keep up that form going he will again be a great pick early on.
    The mid-tier forward players are a mix of older players hoping to regain their previous best form, and some younger ones who appear on the cusp of a break-out. As always picking the break-out players is a difficult task, so careful selections here could save both trades and money over the season. The right selection here in conjunction with the previous group and some R/F's will make for a truly potent forward/ruck mix.
    Jarrad Waite (CAR) FWD 520k 96
    Waite is still on restricted training at Carlton as he recovers from various niggles, and while the positive hype about Carlton will tempt many coaches into considering him, he has always failed to deliver thus far and being less than full fitness won't help him there. If he gets fit and fires he could be great, but too risky early on for my liking.
    Nick Riewoldt (StK) FWD 513.1k 95
    Roo is still doing the same old thing, running all game and wearing down opponents but not really setting the game alight on his own terms. As the Saints younger brigade picks up pace Roo could see a more supporting role, which ironically may see better fantasy scoring from him. Roo is getting a bit old in the tooth these days, but should still have a good season left in him.
    Tom Hawkins (GEE) FWD 508.8k 94
    The Tomahawk impressed many coaches in 2012, and is now really pushing to break into the leading group of fantasy forwards. His consistency is a big worry however, as he still struggles to maintain his form, but if he can improve this in 2013 he should be one of the leading scorers up front.
    Jack Riewoldt (RIC) FWD 485.9k 90
    JRoo has been a decent option for a while now, but needs to take the next step before being considered a great one. The improving Tiges squad should offer him some good support and ball supply, however again his consistency is a worry.
    Matthew Wright (ADE) M/F 475.3k 88
    Wright was highly underrated in 2012, averaging a very nice 88 and a DPP M/F he is one of the sneaky selections that a few coaches will be banking on going big this season. Natural improvement should see him push his average to 90+, and the Crows have plenty of other tagging options running around for them.
    Mitch Robinson (CAR) M/F 474.7k 88
    Robbo should make his way into more than a couple of teams in 2013, his hard-at-it contested style of play draws attention and he always gives 110%. Big numbers however aren't really his forte, as his style of play leads to him often playing in a tagging H/F role, and his aggression may well cause him to miss weeks through suspension or injury.
    Shaun Higgins (WBD) FWD 425.2k 79
    Missy has been the bane of many fantasy footy coach for years now, constantly ripping up the pre-season and showing why he has such hype around him, before failing to deliver in the regular stuff. The Dogs will likely struggle in 2013 and while this can see some bigger scores from individuals, I'd still be expecting Boyd to take the majority of points with Dahlhaus also likely eating into Missy's points-pie.
    Dustin Martin (RIC) M/F 473.5k 88
    Dusty burnt many bridges last season, being one of the most selected players in the pre-season and then essentially doing bugger-all once the real stuff started. An average of 88 isn't particularly bad, but certainly not what you want from a near 500k player. This season many of the burnt will ignore him because of this, and therefore if he can fire could make a good sneaky POD.
    As with the other rookies we won't go into any detail, as information will change daily, but these guys are all solid options worth keeping an eye on.
    Sam Kerridge (ADE) M/F 115.9k
    Sam Mayes (BRI) M/F 164.5k
    Marco Paparone (BRI) M/F 114.5k
    Jake Neade (PTA) M/F 115.9k
    Troy Menzel (CAR) M/F 149.5k
    Joe Daniher (ESS) FWD 154.5k
    Sam Rowe (CAR) R/F 115.9k
    Brent Macaffer (COL) FWD 128k
    My left-field selection for the forwards, isn't actually playing forward much, but nonetheless has shown positive signs over the pre-season and has his clubs supporters locking him in in droves.
    Arryn Siposs (StK) FWD 316.6k 59
    Siposs has been touted by many Saints fans to take over the Goddard&amp;rdquo; role in the St Kilda backline, which as we all know can see some great fantasy returns. A new role, a poor average and a low media profile may well see Siposs slip past many coaches, but for those that take the risk, he could well pay off in spades.


    As a final piece, here's what a cookie-cutter line-up will
     

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