In the good ol' days you could get reliable cash generation out of your top rookies, downgrade them to someone on the bubble and then stand a good chance of a second round of cash generation to get to your fully upgraded team. Now, with any rookie coming into an established team almost certain to cop multiple vests, their ability to generate cash is being severely compromised by the low scores that accompany the vest. The full effect of this has been hidden so far as we have had a truckload of playing rookies from expansion teams to prop us up. Just ask yourself, how do you think you would be travelling for cash generation if you did not have GWS rookies to rely on? Ditto for GC last year. Next year, however, this will not be the case and I expect the game will change completely in trying to generate enough cash to get your upgrades. As they say in the fashion industry, red and green should never be seen...
Thought it was blue and green turbo but I get your point. Fits and bursts. Will be interesting to do the sums. I think the majority of teams will still want their best players on the park, but more risks will be taken on LTIs - players with high risk, and players who had a bad year but will improve. I'm still thinking that the teams that dominate the ranks have gone the right makeup. There will always be rookies who will get games that are not sub-affected, the key is spotting them, which plays again into the hands of those who do not just the "let's read the NAB" research, but those who see specific needs in teams and players drafted to meet those needs. I do think that to survive teams need to bring 5 new players into the mix each year. At least 2 of these will be badly sub affected. The others could get a run in the team and stay there. The issue is when teams bring youngsters in around crisis times or injuries. This compounds problems. Most teams will prefer to blood players a few at a time, but not how we've seen at Collingwood this year. Thing is also key position players rarely are subbed in. The trend is to get a younger fresher legs player to come in around 3/4 time, for a larger player. Generally matches are done and dusted by then and points scored by those subbed in are badly affected. Learning point: Don't give up on key position rookies, and take good care of the smalls you put in either defence or attack. For midfield rookies, they have to be near certain of regular game time and be part of a rotation (e.g. Magner this year) Learning point 2: Most likely the best teams next year will go a 5-0-3 midfield, like I did this year. I chose the right strategy, wrong players.
I think the big thing amongst all this is - as you highlighted Lucas - you have to put more premium mids on the park from the start. If you can nab a couple of mid rookies that will play a role like Magner, James MacDonald, then all the better. If you can nab those mid playing rookies as MPP and put them forward or back, even better. These mid rookies are now almost going to have to be the funnels that channel the cash cow dosh towards the other lines. Mid rookies traded down to mid rookie, money used to trade up a forward or back rookie/mid pricer to a premium. I went a 4-0-4 midfield this year, with James Mac and Magner as M5 and 6. I've since added a semi-premium M5 to the mix and won't have to upgrade anyone else for a while. This is good because the forwards in particular need work this year. Probably also brings about another lesson - If you can nab someone who is a Mid/Fwd, who will be a forward keeper but a midfield non-keeper (talking about guys like Sidebum, Fyfe (perhaps), Dustin Martin, Chappy, etc etc - nab them as a forward. Certainly, put a MPP option in among your rookies to swap forwards and mids, but stick to premium mid only players in all bar the most extreme circumstances.
Absolutely Lucas, spotting the right rookies who won't be part of the sub rotation will be absolutely critical next year. This is where mature age rookies may provide some paydirt. Having said that, as AngryAnt is alluding, if you're running a GnR strategy you need 12 or more rookies. Outside of the GWS boys, how many rookies are providing decent cash generation now? Well, there are the 2 Richmond boys (although Ellis was sub-affected on the weekend), Magner, Milera, Stanley and Clarke if you count them and then...err...umm... The rest are sub or rotation affected. Move over GnR, there's going to be a lot more value picking of mid-pricers next year I reckon.
understand what your saying turbo and i agree, but, next years rookie stocks are alot stronger and go deeper than this year. So alot more can play a bigger impact or game time than this year. Also the 17 yr olds that where traded off by gws ie jagaer and the ones from the crows they wanted them playing this year and where going to apply to allow them. So you would think that both would slot traight in next year. But then we will not have GWS and GC too also pick 8 rookies or so out of either. There will be a pleathera of midpricers
Get fair dinkum guys! We pick rookies who we think are best placed to play maximum game time and have job security. To think we can get that totally correct no matter the amount of research done is fantastic. To think we can avoid vests with those rookies is fantastic-er. If the answer is to go mid-priced next year, good luck with that. After 5 rounds, this seems to be a thread to justify the fact that we've done everything right but are still struggling. Well, maybe we have done everything right but it's still a game of luck. Get over it and stick to your strategies. It's just a shit year! (IMO)
That's the point whips, we won't be able to avoid our rookies getting vests which will seriously diminish our ability to generate cash from them. If you think this year is a shit year, just wait until next year when you don't have a stack of expansion team rookies to prop you up!
If they go a 2-2 vest as we've heard movements about then the situation could be even more tricky. Will sort the men from the boys very early with rookies choices. Definitely spoilt this year and last.
proves mid-pricers like Ebert, Tippett, Lake, Masten, TWalker,etc... carry huge value this year and may have to play all season perhaps. its the sub rule alone that has brought the change. true that GnR might prove to be an old 8os rocker?