For the past 3 seasons, the top 6 super coach point earners have had an average date of birth as follows - 2010 = average d.o.b. = 1984 2009 = average d.o.b. = 1983 2008 = average d.o.b. = 1982 We can expect that the top point earners this season will average a date of birth of 1985. This season, players born in 1984, 1985 & 1986 are in their prime. Exceptionally talented players can peak 1 to 3 years early &/or improve a year or 2 beyond expectations. If a player's born in 83' or earlier, we can't expect them to improve on last season, they are at the end of their prime. Players born 86' & after, should improve. Rucks seem to be the exception to this rule & there'll always be 1 or 2 players who'll also be an exception & make the top 20, like chapman last season, Hayes the year before & Harvey the year before that. Regarding price movement... If you didnt consider, for your team, the following 30 players, you'd likely be wrong with 3 or 4 & right to leave out all the other 26-27... Judd, Chapman, Montagna, Cross, Riewoldt, Boyd, Lake, Hayes, Didak, Bruce, Tuck, Johncock, Bolton, Harvey, Pavlich, Burgoyne, Millburn, Mitchel, Brown, Cassisi, Enright, Fletcher, Green, Rawlings, Scotland, Black, Gilbee, Goodes, Giansiracusa, Newman. So if you're having difficulty choosing between guns fromthe same team,look towards their d.o.b to see who's in their prime, who's enteringand who's leaving... GL
Players born 86' & after, should improve... So we should ignore... Murphy Pendlebury Selwood Swallow Gibbs Deledio I agree they are not going to be quite at their peak this year, but just as old players can have "vintage" seasons, younger players can also mature. You're right with your overall philosophy, that once players age over 28 they don't generally pass their previous peaks. The issue with picking <25 year old players is also genuine, that they will improve but not generally to an elite level, because they are still learning the game. There is also quite a crash and burn element, where a player such as Heath Shaw, burns brightly, then gets tagged and has to learn to reshape his game so it doesn't destroy the team. Go without all of Chapman, Didak, Pavlich and Riewoldt (not to mention Goodes, Brown and Harvey) and win the thing and you deserve a toast not to mention the 50 grand!
Interesting angle and a good bit of research to add to the overall analyses that will do out head in. However can't be applied in blanket fashion. For example rucks get a lot better when they are pushing 30.
Go without all of Chapman, Didak, Pavlich and Riewoldt (not to mention Goodes, Brown and Harvey) and win the thing and you deserve a toast not to mention the 50 grand!</blockquote> I would have thought most people were going without Chapman, Didak, Pavlich, Brown and Harvey? At least initially, just leaving Riewoldt and Goodes from that list and clearly premiums are few and far between in the forward line anyway so age is less of a factor. I think the OP was getting mostly at mid premiums where there are way more options and age could be much more of a factor...
Interesting thinking Chief and others. Just thinking that if you completely leave the list of 5 above out of your team from the start, you might be pushing uphill to win the comp. I agree however you could make something like Riewoldt, Goodes, Franklin, Rioli work
Yeah, you're right Lucas - I was really just illustrating that you could easily leave any of those guys out but probably not all. And it would literally JUST leave the four premiums you mentioned if in fact Rioli is (to be) a premium. I have difficulty picking Harvey while Brown, Chapman and Didak are too risky for me with no preseasons - bound to take a bit of time to get going.. Maybe it's a bit over-cautious but when it comes to premiums I want to minismise risk factors..
Yeah, I am "wrong" with 3. Riewoldt, Boyd, Mitchell. Without overdoing the analysis, some of these guys might not play a full season (i.e., do number of games per season also slide with age), factor in different roles given to players that can move their score either way (Yarran/Neon), plus some may have just a terrific half season of big scores (e.g., JB), so it is more a question of only having them during their peak throughout the season. Good stuff.
Some good points there, thanks for the comments. I agree the age factor applies mostly to the midfield. Hard to omit all of the listed players, although I expect most of them could be picked up at reduced price later on. I expect the saints and bulldogs to decline this season with their midfielders leaving their prime & their next generation needing a few seasons to mature. Time will tell... I'll revisit this list quarter way into the season & compare starting prices with then.
What's happened to the 86' crop? only 1 or 2 made the top 50 scorers list last season. The 84's & 85's had 7 in the top 20 The 87's & 88's had 6 in the top 20. Anyone have any 86's in their team?
86 well let's remember that was the year Pearce won the rising star so no doubt that group is pretty ordinary! Probably Dale Thomas is an 86 or close to it, Andrew Swallow, Heath Shaw and not much else. Marc Murphy?
Since there is an obvious flair here for demographics, wouldn't it be nice to have SC totals for each year matched with the coach's age. Might be a few surprises. But I digress. Sorry.