I'm attempting to ditch a GC player from my squad, and I just wanted to see what the opinions were on Swallow. It seems that just about every team has him pencilled in (including mine), but what do we expect his average to be? Unless he does a Barlow, most people will be upgrading him mid season. Priced at 213k, there seem to be a lot of other guys who could earn an equally good price gain, and play the first 10 rounds; Luke Shuey 224k, Brock McClean 216k, Hamish Hartlett 232k,.... aside from the cheapies. Is he a better option than these guys?
The thing about Swallow is that right now, he's the cream of the crop- so if you've got him on the field (and really, who wouldn't), he's likely to be the highest scoring rookie that you can field. Of course, pre-season will be essential, so will pricing. As for his expected average, I'm thinking 80+
Yea i agree with Walsey, expect him to ave 80+ easily this year. Will play every game barring injuries (touch-wood).
well at 80+ you would take him over those three guys I mentioned due to their injury woes.... and I would take a 60 point average from a cheapie... so I guess he is worth the extra $.
With GC having the bye in Rd 1 I'm tempted to take a wait and see approach to Swallow. Most teams have him locked in so it could give an edge to teams without him if he doesn't hit that 80 point average. Plus we have until Rd 4 to snap him up if he hits the ground running. It's a risky ploy as it might take two trades to get him in for a cheaper option but there are a lot of viable alternatives this year. On the GC, does the prospectus have VFL stats from last year? Marc Lock, Maverick Weller and Zac Smith have all been voted in as 'leaders of the club'. At 107,500 this gives them pretty good job security. I'd be interested to know how prolific these guys (and Swallow) were in the VFL.
I saw that article too, so trying to find a bit out about those three. This statement on Lock's GC profile worries me a bit.... "Now played almost exclusively as a negating midfielder capable of pushing forward and pinching the odd goal...". However he did win their B&F last year, so looks like a handy one. Also, quite tall to be playing on-ball (192cm)... might spend more time shutting down mid-sized forwards. Weller is from the big smoke (Burnie residents would get the reference) and looks like the tough nuggety midfield type. He played mainly off halfback last year, so all the experienced defensive players GC signed, would have to put pressure on him. McKenna did say this about him last year... "I'm focusing on Maverick Weller playing round one and by the end of round 18, if we're the whipping boys and we're not playing finals, I want him to be a better footballer,". Zac Snith must have rucked okay in the VFL, as he made the Queensland All-Australian team.. only vfl guy to do so. His game output could depend on Fraser either a) getting injured, or b) Being sent forward due to their lack of goal scoring options. He is 97kgs, turns 21 in Feb, and has rucked against big guys... must be a bench option to watch.
Looking forward to getting to see Swallow in action, but barring any kind of mishap/severe under-performances in the preseason matches, I think he'll be a lock for me. Very interested to see what SC do in fact end up doing with the GC prices too.
Where does the 213 come from? I know I've been under a rock for a few weeks but haven't seen any reliable start prices for these GC rookies? Thanks and sorry if I'm ignorant to previously entered info.
Just the Monty prediction. Based on the fact that there is a $4(ish)k difference between each player drafted in the first round. (Like there was last year)
So given his great VFL form he could conceivably come in at 280 or even higher. It's all just guess work but after Barlow last year I think the top rookies will be even higher priced. I wonder who would have him at >250.
It's possible- but unlikely. As it stands, at $220k I'll be doing the sums on how worth it he is over some other options.
Anyone considering not picking swallow imo is crazy. There are many more oportunities to pick unique selections.
I don't think it's crazy to leave Swallow out. If Foley is priced under 300K and Swallow is over 200K I only need to see Axle on the field during NAB games to go that way. Assuming a first year midfielder in a struggling side is going to be pumping out regular tons is a little loopy imo.
Good point Wal, it's easy to forget that the midfielders are playing in a young team that hasn't played together for very long - how much of the ball will the GC realistically see? Especially early on, they could be in for a few thrashings. Towards the end of the year they might start seeing more of the 'points pie' but that isn't going to be particularly helpful when most SC teams will be near full with premiums.
A lot of people thought that about the titans in the nrl and they were pretty competitive straight off the bat (serious premiership contenders in 3rd and 4th years!) If swallow is a similar price to shuey it will be a toss up for me. If there is a nailed on starter for half the price, you'd have to consider spitting.
I have no doubt shuey will be a good player, Jet. My concern though, in terms of having him as a fantasy player, is his potential durability issues (injuries). Having a quick peak at the lovely new 'injuries' section under his player profile, he has missed a multitude of games over the past 2 years (36 weeks), and when he gets injured it seems to be for a considerable period of time as well (9,11,7 & 9 weeks respectively for his 4 injuries).
That is true spud, however... one thing you could say is that at least none of his injury problems are reoccurring. He had a groin issue, bereavement leave for a family matter, then fractured fibula, then a hernia operation, then finally glandular fever. Two of these (glandular and fibula), he couldn't do much about..
If only I'd found this place sooner, I wouldn't have wasted my 1st 2 SC seasons. :x I've never seen this guy play, but it would be important to consider - is he better or worse than his brother? His brother avgd 57 from 12 games in his 1st season and 73 from 22 in his 2nd season.
I'd take him at 250k. I don't think there's much doubt that he will play every game and win the rising star. Should appreciate to 400k and be a cheap upgrade to a fallen ultra premium such as Swan, Judd, Montagna or Ablett, whichever you aren't starting with. 300k and I'd re-evaluate.
Griff- Big call saying there's not much doubt he'll win the rising star! No one pre season would have predicted the last 3 winners - hannerbry, rich, palmer. Especially against favorites like scully, natanui etc It would be a great feat just to play 22 games. I think this kid will disappoint a lot of coaches if they are expecting him to produce Barlow like numbers.