Draw Analysis - hope it helps a few

Discussion in 'AFL' started by Bettsy, Feb 28, 2012.

  1. Bettsy

    Bettsy New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    35
    Likes Received:
    0
    Games ------Interstate. Against top 4. Against top 8. Against bottom 4 + GWS

    Melbourne. 2. 3 7 4
    Richmond. 3 4. 8 2
    Brisbane. 6. 4. 6. 2
    Adelaide. 6. 3. 6. 3
    Port Adel. 5. 2. 6. 2
    Fremantle. 5. 3. 6. 4
    Hawthorn. 2. 3. 5. 3. + 3 games at Aurora
    West Coast. 6. 2. 5. 2

    GWS. 6. 2. 5. 3
    Gold Coast. 5. 2. 5. 2
    Geelong. 4. 2. 4. 3
    Collingwood. 2. 3. 5. 4
    Calton. 3. 3. 5. 4
    Sydney. 5. 2. 4. 3
    Bulldogs. 3. 3. 4. 5
    Essendon. 3. 4. 4. 4
    St Kilda. 4. 2. 4. 4
    Nth Melb. 5. 3. 5. 6. Includes Gold Coast twice



    This is based on last years ladder positions and is the first 13 rounds ( so everyone's had there bye )

    disclaimer - This is a rough ladder of hardest to easiest first 13 rounds

    May do the second half of the season analysis during the week. ( recovering from second hernia op )

    cheers Bettsy
     
  2. Bettsy

    Bettsy New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    35
    Likes Received:
    0
    Sorry about the format, no much chop on the iPad
     
  3. walesy

    walesy Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2015
    Messages:
    3,872
    Likes Received:
    2,565
    Norths draw is funny, while they do have a bunch of "easy" games early, they really seem spaced out: essendon, easy, hard, hard, easy, hard, hard, easy, easy, hard

    Meaning that while they should score decently early, they won't gain any of those "double high" scores in the rolling average that really smash up your salary.

    Essendons round 2/3 is nice, but the round 2 is only counted one, and it's followed up by hard/hard
    Adelaide has a fantastic early draw
    Collingwood will be tough to buy into. Hawthorn up first only effects 1 salary movement, after that, they aren't going to have 2 hard games enter their rolling average until round 15/16
    Hawthorn have a horrible opening season. Outside of Buddy, (and maybe even Buddy), it looks a really risk on paper. Lots of bargains come round 8 I reckon.

    Dunno, might have the initial seeds of a post right there. :)
     
  4. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    10,677
    Likes Received:
    6,115
    Problem with Adelaide having an early easy draw is finding players from there you can bet on with confidence.
    The Saints and North draws are more enticing in that you are more likely to have them in your squads?
     
  5. Lucas

    Lucas Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,974
    Likes Received:
    121
    In terms of North's draw, their players should maintain their salary then, with no clutch of difficult games really spiking badly to cause majorly missed BE's.

    I don't like the Hawks' first 6, but it opens up considerably after there. I also think that given the tough start, some Hawk defenders might be in order.
     
  6. FixEmUp

    FixEmUp New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    163
    Likes Received:
    0
    Already got Birchall in my side. ;)
     
  7. Bettsy

    Bettsy New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    35
    Likes Received:
    0
    I think it could sway me towards thinking about A.Swallow a bit more.

    Also deters me from Deledio,Cotchin, Martin etc a little

    Does Suckling score better in wins or losses? After Pies and Cats there draw is awesome
     
  8. Lucas

    Lucas Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,974
    Likes Received:
    121
    Suckling was identical in wins and losses last year (90.8 average) meaning he gets more in losses than he should, as on average winning defenders score 8ppg more than losing.
     

Share This Page