When we see the Supercoach leader score one of the best scores of the round, its probably time that most of the other 380 thousand teams start to focus on leagues (if they havent already). It does need to be noted that there are obviously still some of us that are (to borrow a line from Simonoz) too far away to actually challenge for the top spot, but still too close to actually throw in the towell. My mrs is in this boat - being ranked 200th is close enough to keep hoping, but realisticaly too far away... still gotta keep trying though. However that is less than 1% of teams that can still challenge the likes of Dirty Whorks and Impromptu for the title, so Im guessing the majority of us are focusing on our leagues now - and hopefully this writeup can be of interest and assist us to take out a league title or two...  or 3 or 5!
When aiming for a league victory, there are many factors that need to be taken into consideration when choosing the last couple of premium spots in your team - I reckon moreso than when aiming for overall. This has already been explored in one of the TS Extras a few weeks back, and also in a round-about way in the Best Buys from week to week. I will now add to this over the break, where I will outline a few things to consider from here on in when deciding who the final upgrades should be when your focus is on your leagues.
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Where are you on the ladder?
The answer to this question is fundamental as it allows you to prioritise all the other aspects outline below. For example, if you are comfortably in the top 4, having a Geelong player who is on leave for Semi Final weekend isnt as much of a worry as it would be if you are fighting to get into the 8; and if you are holding up the ladder, having players from teams on a multi-bye weekend may be a priority. This will be explored more later.
The Ticker
Everyone should be well aware of the Ticker by now. Its an amazing feature of this site that needs to be utilised in conjuction with the ideas that follow below.
How many upgrades do you have remaining?
The assumption I am taking is that most people have less than 4 upgrades remaining. Hopefully most people have almost all of their first choice players, and the remaining few can be subject to the following ideas.
Byes during SuperCoach finals
This is a biggee! Not so much if you are up top of your ladder as you will be able to conserve your trades to help you throughout the finals; however if fighting for a spot in the 8, you may need to use your trades to make those final upgrades, and you dont want to be left stranded come the finals. If you are in the latter situation, players from the following 4 teams need to be avoided at all costs.
Rd 21: North Melbourne
Rd 22: Geelong
Rd 23: Carlton
Rd 24: Essendon
Good run in the finals
The opposite to a player having a week off in the finals, could be a player having an easy draw in the finals. Looking at the Ticker, the following 4 teams have the easiest draw in the SuperCoach finals: Hawthorn, Sydney, Melbourne, & West Coast. If you are confident that you will make the finals, then its a great idea to get the last few players for your team from these 4 clubs; however if you are struggling to make the 8, then it is far less important, as you need to maximise your chance of making the 8 first and foremost.
Multi-Bye Weekends
For those of us that are fighting it out for one of the last remaining spots in the 8, then this factor needs to be one of your highest priorities. For those already entrenched in the 8, it is far less important. I suspect everyone is aware that the leagues have a bye in rounds 16 and 19 when there are AFL multi-bye weekends. So therefore, players in the 6 teams that have the week off over these two rounds will, most likely, be playing every remaining league game for you! The 6 teams are as follows: Adelaide, Melbourne, Fremantle, Brisbane, Richmond, & Sydney. Having players from these 6 teams can be an obvious huge advantage; however, as you will see from reading on, taking this route without considering the other aspects outlined here may not work out so well.
The run home
In the Best Buys today, Lucas outlined the results of a "basic run home outlook" that he worked out. The results are as follows, with the higher the rating, the better the run home:
"Hawthorn 10.91, Geelong 10.09, WC 9.73, Melb 9.55, Port 9.36, WB/Adel 9.27, Rich 9.18, Syd 9.09, NM/Coll 8.82, Freo 8.73, Â StK/Bris 8.64, GC 7.92, Carl/Ess 7.91."
This is especially good to consider if aiming for overall, but as we are looking at ways to maximise your chance to win your league, it should only be noted, and not taken as high of a priority as most of the other aspects discussed here.
Gold Coast
As we suspected preseason, and have come to realise, the Suns leak good points to their opposition week in week out. Having this in your thinking when choosing your last few upgrades is highly important. Gold Coast still play 11 different teams over the remainder of the season, but it is when they play them that is important.
Firstly, it needs to be noted that Gold Coast play Sydney and StKilda in the multi-bye weeks, so if you bring in players from these 2 teams, you need to realise that their scores against the Gold Coast will be wasted!
The 5 teams that dont play the GC from here on are as follows: Carlton, Port Adelaide, Essendon, West Coast, & North Melbourne - So buying players from these 5 teams may also be unadvisable, but this is obviously arguable, so its up to each of us to decide how important this factor is.
And lastly, it should be noted that Hawthorn play them twice from here on - this week and in the SuperCoach Granny.
If you are entrenched in the 8, then players who play against the Gold Coast in the finals could be handy: players from Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne, & Hawthorn. Although, if you are fighting for your finals spot, then its probably better to aim for players playing against the Suns in the rounds that you need them most - and this will be discussed more in the next 2 aspects.
League fixture
For the teams up top of the ladder, this is not as important as for those that arent; however for all of us, if you havent already, its about time you looked up your league fixture and identify the weeks that are most important for you, maybe against a rival for a top 4 spot, or someone thats also fighting for a spot in the 8 - These are 8 point matches as they say, and a win in them could be crucial to helping you realise your dreams!
When you know what weeks are most crucial for you, you can identify (in no particular order) which team plays against the Gold Coast that week, which team has the bye, and which teams look good on the Ticker. Another thing that you can do is to have a look at the team you will be playing against and see what PODs they have, but the choice of cancelling out that POD, or countering it is one that needs to be up to each individual IMO, but is quite important all the same.
How many trades do you have left?
As mentioned earlier, If fighting for a spot in the 8, you may need to use up your trades quicker than those that are already assured of making the finals. Being up top allows you the luxury of saving your trades for those unescapable LTIs or finals byes late in the season, not to mention the flu and general soreness that seems to be contagious and goes around every year at the business end of the season! Either way, it is important to save a few trades for these types of things, but how many is up to each individual... and a hard one to work out. One thing is for sure though, its not nice being bundled out of the finals race with trades in hand, knowing that you didnt do all that you could to go deeper than you did.
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Now, there are a few different factors there to be considering, and others that I have not mentioned, so it is a bit tricky to be working out what to prioritise and in effect which clubs to be scouting for your final few players.
For those lucky ones that are entrenched in the final 8 already, I reckon your best plan of attack is to sit tight and save your trades for when they are most needed, and if you are intent on making your last few upgrades look for players from clubs that have good runs in the finals and also no byes in the finals - Hawthorn, Melbourne, Sydney and West Coast.
For those that are trying to get into the top 8, it is a lot more difficult to analyse; however, I would firstly avoid Sydney and StKilda players, and look for players who have their bye on one of the multi-bye weekends - Adelaide, Melbourne, Fremantle, Brisbane, Richmond, especially ones that still play the GC during the supercoach regular season - Fremantle in R15, & Richmond in round 17.
But in either situation, it is important to look at all aspects holistically and make an overall judgement.
So what strategies do people take that are not outlined here, and what are you all planning to do for your last few upgrades?
Where are you currently on your ladder, and how do you like your chances?
Final upgrades when aiming for a league victory
Discussion in 'Blog' started by RoyBoys, Jun 15, 2011.
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Discussion in 'Blog' started by RoyBoys, Jun 15, 2011.