For a decade, FU has served as a battleground for those of us who take it way too seriously and allowed us to construct teams of our own making. This FU stats thread delves into 10 years of data, uncovering the ups and downs, tears and joy, and the triumphs and misfortunes of our great league. From the drafting room to the trade table, every decision is reflected in each team, whether or not the player contributes or ultimately gets traded out or delisted. This thread comes with a warning. Some of these stats may cause you to reach for the tissue box, yell at the monitor in anger or hide your face in shame. Others may cause you to pat yourself on the back, demand that someone nearby pats you on the back and tells you how good you are or a sense of overconfidence that could result you in making a great decision like drafting Richard Tambling in the first round. So let’s get into it. The conclusion of the 2023 season was the 10th season of FU. Over the last decade we’ve had: 3,188 team scores 1,594 matches 650 unique scores 262 days of Melbournians being in lockdown 198 rounds 64 finals 63 bye affected rounds 22 coaches 10 years of tears and joy 9 different teams winning the runners up plate 8 different teams claiming the wooden spoon 7 forfeits 6 different teams hoisting the FU premiership cup 4 matches where the margin was 69 points 1 season where a team won 0 matches And. Not. One. Drawn. Match. This thread will have a few parts to it and will be released over the coming week or so as I complete it: 1. A Review of 2023 2. FU Records Part 1 Part 23. Club Records All Teams Ararat Blanchetown Bueng Kan Carnamah Christmas Island Coolgardie Cow Bay Eden Exmouth Groote Eylandt Horsham Hughenden King Island Korumburra Nuytsland Pakenham Serengeti Staghorn Flat4. Analysis of FU related stuff
A Review of 2023 Each year provides new reasons for real and false hope for the coming season. Maybe that hack who’s average 60 every year of his career will finally break out into uber premium status and score 140+ each week. Maybe that player that finally broke out last year and increased his average by 30 points to 110 will increase their average by another 30 points this year. The review of the year provides us with an opportunity to look back and see how we got it oh so right or oh so wrong. From our draft picks achieving greatness in their first year, to breakout stars who elevated their status and average, to seasoned veterans who continue to defy the odds and to players who suffered injury curses or others who were simply overtaken by others in the team. We’ve seen slow starts, late season surges and teams fall apart in the last part of the season. Now to delve into the numbers. First up, we’re going to look at each team’s ladder position at the end of the home and away season, number of wins and each team ranked by the total points scored. For the first time in FU history (maybe even across all TS leagues I cbf checking), the ladder positions of the teams in the top 8 mirrored the rank of the total points scored. On the other hand, the ladder position of just 2 teams in the bottom 10 aligned with the team’s rank of points scored across the home and away season. Christmas Island had the largest difference between their final ladder position and points for rank (a difference of 3). The box plot below shows us the range of scores each team had over the course of the season. I have ranked the teams by their median score over the H&A season. We can see that Ararat and Nuytsland are a step ahead of the rest of the competition. Their median scores (1410 and 1394 respectively) are about 100 ahead of the next best – Pakenham’s 1318. Although Ararat and Nuytsland had very similar median scores, a difference of 2 wins separated both at the conclusion of FU round 17. You could say from looking at the chart and table that the next pack comprised of Pakenham, Serengeti and Korumburra. Korumburra scored 2 wins less than Pakenham and Serengeti but it shouldn’t be too surprising based on the range of scores the team put together. The majority of scores was in a tight range of about 1200 to 1350ish. They were only 2 teams in the top 8 that didn’t manage to break the 1400 barrier at some stage. The next pack seems to be another group of 3 – Groote, Cow Bay and Staghorn Flat. Of these 3, Cow Bay managed the lowest and highest score of the 3 but also had a more consistent middle range of scores with the box being smaller and higher. The red dashed lines simply mark out the 8th highest team median (Staghorn) and the average score we saw in our league this year (1200). Blanchetown had a median team score of above 1200 but the extra loss they suffered during the year saw them slip to 10th. Coolgardie and Bueng Kan also appear to be knocking on the door of the 8 with some high scores in the 1350-1400 range but also some low scores of around 1000 which dragged them down a little. It appears there’s also a bottom 5 pack – King Island, Exmouth, Christmas Island, Eden and Hughenden. All teams have roughly similar median scores, yet Christmas Island finished 11th. The team’s large range of scores got them some unexpected wins. So what changed from the previous year? Well, our minor premier Ararat improved across the board. Average team score was up 87 points resulting in 4 extra wins and an improvement from 5th to 1st. Nuytsland and Serengeti didn’t see too much change. Pakenham saw an increase of 130 points in their average team score but only an extra 2 wins. Cow Bay was the biggest improver – average team score up 166 points resulting in 9 extra wins and a surge up the ladder from 16th to 5th. Groote saw their average score drop by 54 points and they just stayed in the top 8 with 3 fewer wins. Horsham saw a big increase in average team score (+113 points) but not much changed ladder position wise. Christmas Island improved from 17th last year to 11th thanks to 5 extra wins and Carnamah got off the bottom of the ladder with 3 extra wins. On the flip side, Coolgardie dropped out of the top 8 with 3 fewer wins, King Island dropped 9 places from 8th to 17th, Hughenden saw a 108 point drop in their average team score and Eden claimed their 2nd wooden spoon with 4 fewer wins than 2022. Where specifically did things change? To answer that, I’ve pulled out scores by line and ranked them over the course of the H&A season. The FU back-to- back premier looks to have ranked better across the positions in 2023 compared to 2022 but they were no longer our best scoring team. Defence improved by 6 positions but the forwards fell 4. Ararat only saw a decline in their ruck scoring power but an improvement in the mids, forwards and interchange (essentially squad depth). Our 2 biggest improvers in 2023 (Cow Bay and Pakenham) improved across the board. For both teams it was the midfield that primarily drove the improvement…although Pakenham saw an equally large improvement in the rank of interchange scores. Our 2 biggest declines (King Island and Hughenden) had different things go wrong. For the Monarchs, their interchange and forward line scorers saw double digit drops in rankings…although defence and mids improved a little. For the Prairie Dogs, the ruck department improved slightly but the mids dragged the team scores down. But a drop in positional ranking change may not always be what it seems. Coolgardie fell out of the 8 and their defensive line rank fell 3 points. When you look at the averages, the average score per player fell from 89.04 to 86.21, a drop of just 2.84 points per player. On the other hand, their midfield ranking fell by just 1 ranking position and saw a larger drop of 3.44 points per player. Blanchetown improved their midfield ranking by 1 position to 11th in the league last year. But when you look at the table below, the average score per midfielder dropped ever so slightly. It’s not always what happens to your team but also what happens to those around you. Lower midfield scores by teams closer to the bottom of the ladder meant Blanchetown saw a slight improvement in their midfield ranking. At the end of the season, it’s just 2 teams who have the opportunity to play for the FU premiership cup. After an interesting finals series, Nuytsland and Korumburra faced off for the 2nd year in a row. In 2022 we saw the 3rd highest scoring Grand Final with the 4th lowest margin. In 2023 it was the 2nd lowest scoring Grand Final with the biggest margin we’ve ever seen.
@fresh ............mate, you are a marvel and deserve to be knighted... Sir fresh........has a nice ring about it...
So good to read. No tears here! I have always wondered who have had the biggest Tamling moments over the FU? Nic Nat would have been close to the biggest opportunity which just didnt work out due to injury.
I used to keep track of draft picks but even getting that back up to date would take me a while, let along lining it up with AFL games played and SC scores. I'll start a list of future ideas and put this one on there. Tracking individual players picks in FU teams and scores is another thing I would like to do to improve some of the stats so this idea ties in nicely with it. Don't expect anything anytime soon though, it's going to require quite a bit of effort.
FU Records - Part 1 This section uncovers a treasure trove of records, both wanted and unwanted. From the highest scores to the lowest lows, from the longest winning streaks to the most crushing defeats, each record serves as a reminder of greatness or acts as a slap in the face. We’ve had 22 teams in our league. For the sake of completeness, I’ve included the now defunct teams in the FU records section. Although we’ve had 22 teams, only 10 have win rates of at least 50%. Overall, Ararat is our most winningest team with a win rate of 73.1%. Nuytsland isn’t far behind with a win rate of 70.6% and they’ve also win 3 premierships compared to 2 for Ararat. Both teams have missed finals just once (although Ararat missed out in 2020 when the team finished in the top 8 but we only had a Grand Final). Groote has 2 premierships to its name and a win rate of 69.2%. Both Bueng Kan and Gisborne also achieved ultimate FU success but have win rates of less than 50%. Blanchetown (41.1% win rate), Christmas Island (43.8%), Korumburra (59%) and Staghorn Flat (54.8%) have all made it to the big dance without winning on the day. At the other end of the spectrum, Manangatang has the worst win rate but were only with us for 1 season. Horsham has the next worst with 21.6% but have only been with us for 3 seasons. So really it’s Cow Bay with a win rate of 33.1% that is currently the team with the worst record, with Eden just 0.2 percentage points (and 1 loss) better. It’s no surprise that both Cow Bay and Eden have won the wooden spoon twice. Blanchetown also has this honour next to their name but have 15 wins more than either team and a Grand Final appearance they can hang their hat on. Serengeti and Staghorn have made finals in 5 out of 10 seasons and have overall win rates of about 55%. Exmouth, King Island and Pakenham have done so in 4 seasons and have win rates of about 50%. Once you get to teams with finals appearances in 3 or less seasons then we start to see win rates of 49% and below. Splitting these results into H&A season and finals... In terms of H&A games, Carnamah, Cow Bay, Eden, and Hughenden all have a lower number of wins than other teams. However, Eden and Cow Bay are the only 2 with more than 100 losses. Bueng Kan, Christmas Island and Hughenden are all within 8 losses of this mark which they’ll hit either this year or next. 4 teams – Ararat, Groote, Korumburra and Nuytsland – have recorded more than 100 wins. Nuytsland and Korumburra recorded their 100th victories in 2023 in round 10 and the quarter final respectively. It looks like Serengeti and Staghorn will get to the 100 win milestone at some stage in 2024. Pakenham (88 wins) will likely also get there next year. The only team yet to play finals is Horsham. But it’s a young team that’s only been with us since 2020 so no doubt in the coming years we’ll see them in the top 8. The now defunct Gisborne only appeared in finals in one year, and won all 3 so claim their maiden premiership. We have had 64 finals wins and 30 of these have been recorded by just 3 teams. It’s no surprise who they are – Ararat, Groote and Nuytsland. Interestingly, Pakenham have made finals in 4 years and have been bundled out in the first week every single time. Coolgardie has had the same thing happen to them in the 3 years they made finals, Cow Bay twice. 5 current teams plus Horsham have yet to record a finals win – the 3 I have just listed as well as Hughenden and Eden. Breaking these figures down into head-to-head results give us the next table. I’ve set it up so that reading down the column (not across the row) shows the H2H record across all matches, H&A and finals. Orange cells highlight any 0 and something records, blue highlights something and 0 records. One really interesting record stands out to me, Exmouth has a 0-10 record against Ararat. Both teams have had reasonable success, yet this matchup has been very one sided in every year. And splitting those H2H records into H&A season… The conclusion of each H&A season gives us the total points scored by each team. As we saw earlier, it gives us a pretty good indication of ladder position. With 180 scores that have been recorded, we can get a pretty good indication of which have been the more successful teams and which haven’t...but we kind of already know that. Ararat and Nuytsland’s efforts in 2023 see them take out the top 2 ranks on the highest points scored across the H&A season. Serengeti and Pakenham also achieved pretty decent results with the 8th best and 11th best efforts respectively. No team has cracked 24,000 points yet and to do so you’d need to score 1,412 points every week on average. In 2023 Ararat achieved an average score of 1,397 and Nuytsland 1,380. Ever so close and it just shows how difficult it is. Manangatang still holds the lowest total points scored and will probably hold it for the foreseeable future. They had 3 weeks where they scored 0 and forfeited the match. Serengeti had 2 forfeits in 2015 which affected their total points scored and they sit with the 3rd lowest total points scored. Unfortunately for Eden, their effort last year saw them with the 11th worst effort at the conclusion of the H&A rounds. Hughenden and Exmouth managed to sneak in to the bottom 20 and King Island and Christmas Island got into the top 30. It’s no surprise that Ararat, Nuytsland and Groote make up half of all appearances in the top 30. On closer inspection, only half of all teams (current and not current) have appeared in this table. Christmas Island leads the way for the number of appearances in the bottom 30 total points scored across the H&A season with 5. A number of teams have appeared 3 times and Horsham has appeared in 2 out of 3 of their seasons. 14 out of our 22 teams have appeared in this table.
FU Records - Part 2 Now for individual matches. There were 8 team scores in 2023 that made it into the top 30 of all time, 6 of them by Ararat. Nuytsland’s score of 1,634 was just 5 points shy of Groote’s all-time effort of 1,639 from 2020. Pakenham also snuck into equal 19th position with their score of 1,514 in round 8. Just 8 teams from our league have managed high enough scores to appear in this table. Ararat holds 9 of the top 30 highest scoring records and Groote 6, combining for half of all scores. Not so surprisingly, no team score from 2023 made it into the top 30 lowest scores. It’s a table littered with (12) scores from the bye affected rounds of 2020. Of the bottom 30 scores, Cow Bay (8 scores) and Blanchetown (6) combined for almost half of all entries in this table. 10 teams in our league appear in the bottom 30 scores table. However, Blanchetown, King Island and Pakenham appear in both the top 30 and bottom 30. A top and bottom 30 for the 64 finals played captures almost half of all scores recorded (128 coz each match has 2 teams). But in any case, we had 3 awesome and 3 not so awesome team scores in last year’s final series. For the first time ever, the total points scored in a match broke the 3,000 point barrier. The match between our two most successful teams Ararat and Nuytsland in round 9 was a mighty shoot out decided by only 10 points. Of the 5 new entries to the table this year, Ararat was part of 4 of them. 2020 is over represented in the lowest match aggregates of all time and I think it’s safe to say that those efforts ranked 1 and 2 from our early years will probably hang around for a while. However, one match made it onto the list, a combined 1779 points were scored by Hughenden and Eden in round 10 placing that match at number 19. The final margin displays either a team’s dominance or another’s heartbreak. 2023 had 4 matches that made it into the top 30 biggest margins of all time. Cow Bay’s 544 point win in round 10 placed them at 14th on the list. Nuytsland had 2 large victories that made it into 22nd and 24th and Ararat’s slotted in to equal 28th. Streaks. Not of the nudie run type. Not long after FU was incorporated, Ararat put together a 10-game winning streak in 2015. This recorded stood for 3 years until Ararat then outdid themselves and put together a 14-game winning streak in 2018. Right on the dot, 3 years later, Groote broke the record with a 17-game winning streak that started in round 2 and ended in the quarter finals. In 2023, we had a couple of 9-game winning streaks appear in the table for longest winning streaks (one from Ararat and another from Nuytsland) as well as an 8-game winning streak from Cow Bay. Pakenham also achieved a 7-game winning streak which puts it at equal 23rd longest. That 8 game win streak effort by the Crocs this year also saw them end their 8-game losing streak in round 2, equal 25th longest streak. Exmouth (9 losses) and Horsham (7 losses) also made an appearance in the list this year. The blanks in the End Year and End FU Round columns for Exmouth’s streak mean it’s still a current streak. Carnamah ended their 12-game losing streak in early 2023 while Eden’s losing streak which started late last year came to an end in FU round 16 when they recorded their only win for the season. This losing streak went for 19 games, the 3rd longest seen in FU.
Ok, now I am in tears. Great write up, Bunyips are in too many of the "shit" columns and we aim to change!
Club Records - All Teams Each club strives to improve, whether through drafting, trading or both. The months of the off season where we tinker and refine our teams through player movement all comes to a head in round 1 and gives us an indication of whether or not our team will go from strength to strength or fall apart during the year. This section comprises club specific records, including highest score, biggest winning margin, longest streak etc. I’ve also put together records against other teams and team specific charts and stats such as scores, ladder position, wins, positional averages etc per team. Most of the team side of things is self-explanatory so I won’t bother doing any analysis there. 4 teams recorded highest scores for their club this year - Ararat, Cow Bay, Nuytsland and Pakenham. 1 team recorded a new low score - Hughenden. Not surprisingly, a number of club record low scores were achieved during 2020. 3 club biggest margins were recorded this year and 2 biggest losing margins. 1 match - round 10 between Cow Bay and Bueng Kan - resulted in the biggest win for Cow Bay and biggest loss for Bueng Kan. 5 teams recorded highest match aggregates this year. 2 involved Nuytsland, 2 involved Ararat and 1 was between Nuytsland and Ararat. No surprise really since they recorded the top 2 highest points scored during the H&A season ever. 5 new longest streaks were recorded this year. 3 were new longest winning streaks, 2 longest losing streaks. Horsham recorded 2 wins in a row for the first time in their short history. And finally, each team's current streak is listed below. At best you'd see 9 teams on a winning streak, at worst you'd see just 1. We've got 4 which is what you'd typically expect.