There has been a bit of discussion in various other TS posts recently as to punters thoughts on which players would have collected Brownlow votes in their respective matches - so why not start up a post dedictated to the topic?

I dont always get the opportunity to watch all 8 games each week, so invariably have to rely on a bunch of key indicators as to which players are likely to pick up the votes.  Whilst stats come in to it - they for obvious reasons cannot be the be all and end all...case in point GAJ on the weekend had comfortably the most disposals, and a decent SuperCoach score of 128 (x2 for many of us) - however many of you would agree there would have been 10+ players play a more infuential game on the day.  Jnr didnt pick up one coaches vote, and wasnt named in the best players on any of the major AFL reporting websites (that I could find anyway...).

It is these opinion-based indicators that give the best chance of estimating who will get the votes come late September.

Other considerations when predicting votewinners: key position forwards very rarely pick up the three.  J. Roughead and B. Fevola from Round 6 2009 comes to mind.  Both kicked 8 goals in a game that was decided by less than a kick (and a poster on the siren from the former Blue Badboy).  Yet 3. B. Sewell, 2. J. Roughead, 1. C. Judd.  Not only did Roughead not get the three (despite picking up a maximum 10 coaches votes), but Fevola didnt even get a mention!

Another consideration is the winning team will on average pick up > 80% of the votes.  It takes a very good game (or a very delusional set of umpires) for a player on the losing team to get any more than 1 vote, and an exceptional game for a player on the losing team to get the three (happened only a handful of times in 2009, Richo in rounds 2 & 4, Judd in Round 3, Goodes in Round 7, Brennan & Sylvia in Round 9, and GAJ and Black againt the Bulldogs later in the season.  What do all of these players (minus Sylvia and Brennan) have in common?  They are the games elite.

Players also tend to get on runs...when a player has a couple of good games in a row, he can often then have a shocker and still poll!  NDS had a massive start to 2009, and should have polled in the first 4 games before being shut down by Kornes against Port in Round 5.  However, he missed the votes altogether in Round 1, Before picking up 3, 3, 3 in Round 2-4.  He then picked up the 2 in Round 5, for a poultry 19 disposals in a game there Riewoldt kicked 4 goals from 23 disposals (and 8 coaches votes), and Fisher with > 170 SuperCoach points and 7 coaches votes also failed to get a mention.  When players are being talked up in the headlines - they seem to pick up the votes.

Anywho, with all that food for thought, here are my predictions for the first two rounds:

Predictions over the break.
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Round 1
Richmond v Carlton
3. A. Carrazzo (3) 2. E. Betts (2) 1. B. Gibbs (1)...Kreuzer, Murphy, Scotland (next best).

Geelong v Essendon
3. S. Byrnes (3) 2. G. Ablett (2) 1. J. Bartel (1)...Stanton, Selwood, Ling

Melbourne v Hawthorn
3. L. Hodge (3) 2. J. Lewis (2) 1. S. Mitchell (1)...Gibson, Birchall, Brown

Sydney v St Kilda
3. N. Riewoldt (3) 2. J. McVeigh (2) 1. L. Montagna (1)...Gilbert, Goodes, OKeefe

Brisbane v West Coast
3. J. Brennan (3) 2. J. Brown (2) 1. L. Power (1)...Rischitelli, Black, A. Selwood

Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
3. K. Cornes (3) 2. B. Ebert (2) 1. B. Harvey (1)...Salopek, Boak, Rawlings

Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
3. D. Swan (3) 2. H. Shaw (2) 1. H. OBrien (1)...Boyd, Murphy, Didak

Fremantle v Adelaide
3. M. Barlow (3) 2. P. Duffield (2) 1. A. Sandilands (1)...McPharlin, Pavlich, Edwards

Round 2
Brisbane v Carlton
3. J. Brown (5) 2. M. Murphy (2) 1. T. Johnstone (1)...Drummond, Scotland, Power

Collingwood v Melbourne
3. S. Pendlebury (3) 2. R. Petterd (2) 1. D. Beams (1)...Davey, Grimes, Jamar

West Coast v Port Adelaide
3. J. Davenport (3) 2. J. Westhoff (2) 1. T. Chaplin (1)...A Selwood, K Cornes, Naitanui

St Kilda v North Melbourne
3. N. Riewoldt (6) 2. B. Goddard (2) 1. L. Montagna (2)...Dal Santo, Gilbert, Jones

Adelaide v Sydney
3. R. OKeefe (3) 2. B. McGlynn (2) 1. M. Seaby (1)...Dangerfield, McVeigh, Goodes

Essendon v Fremantle
3. M. Barlow (6) 2. A. Sandilands (3) 1. H. Ballantyne (1)...Hill, Watson, Broughton

Richmond v Western Bulldogs
3. A. Cooney (3) 2. L. Gilbee (2) 1. D. Cross (1)...Griffen, Boyd, Akermanis

Hawthorn v Geelong
3. J. Bartel (4) 2. B. Ottens (2) 1. C. Enright (1)...Mooney, Mitchell, Byrnes

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Leaderboard
6 - M. Barlow, N. Riewoldt
5 - J. Brown
4 - J. Bartel
3 - K. Cornes, S. Pendlebury, L. Hodge, J. Davenport, A. Sandilands,  R. OKeefe, J. Brennan, D. Swan, S. Byrnes, A. Cooney, A. Carrazzo.

So there you have it - my thoughts on the line...time for the other Brownlow Armchair Experts to speak up and tell me Ive got it completely wrong!  None of us will really know for another six months though...