So now with the bye rounds behind us, how'd we all come out the other end? Position / Points / Trades Remaining / Team Value + cash in hand 416 / 27,641 / 8 / 13,074,500 Anyone want to have a crack at a formula to assess teams strength? Something along the lines of - take total current overall points, divide by x, take number of trades remaining, multiply by y, take current team value + cash in hand, divide by Z. Add totals, + some tweak for holding injured players? I'd reckon the winner will come from the current top 100, perhaps even top 200 at a stretch. Where do you think the cut off would be now, to still be a chance? Is it possible that a team ranked 150th, worth 350k more than the leading teams & with 4 more trades in hand, could swamp the leaders in the run home? For a few of you who are currently in the top 200, how many trades remaining? (If you're comfortable revealing that, or are able to, without revealing your team) I think current team value + cash in hand would have to be a huge indicator of teams strength, so even if only in it for leagues, like me, that figure alone when compared to main league rivals should give a decent clue as to how you're travelling.
I think any equation would have to take into account premo injuries from now on to your trades remaining. Many teams out there will be very similar by now but does 100th place and 5 trades with 1 extra 500k+ player beat 300th placed with 9 trades and 1 less premo? I think the latter wins if Ablett Pendels Thomo Buddy Lids type players get injured from here on but if the big guns mostly stay fit and play most of their games I think 100th hold out from here. I might have a think and see if I can come up with a formula that even half makes sense.
I had a play with assigning different values to x,y & z but when applying it to league rivals it's difficult to come up with an accurate weighting for each factor. I have a decent idea of how my main league will look at the end & was trying to find a simple formula to reflect what to expect, it'd be handy to know how many trades the top 100 have in hand, would it be fair to assume most of the top 100 have an average of 6 trades remaining?
Wow, you got me doing some research there. I came up with something at least...was that last post 3 hours ago? hmm. My formula came down to a few simple 'rules' that I came up with. They are: 1. You pretty much have to be in the top 205 at the very worst from here, 960pts behind the leader. This gives you 96 points per round to catch up, about the most I was willing to stretch it to. 2. You must have at least 7 trades to cover injuries for 10 rounds if you have 18-22 premos on the field. (Based on this weeks snap shot of 80 currently injured players 15 that I class as premo, a 420k+ player you won't trade and averages 90+. There are 90 odd of these players in the game currently.) I figure an extra trade is worth on average about 6pts per round from here depending on when/how it is used, as a rough guess. 3. Every team in front of you will average 14 players the same as you, this leaves only 8 players to do your catching up with. These players have to average 10 points more than the leader every round: 80x10=800. 4.You must have the right captain each week, if you don't someone else will and missing just a couple of weeks will cost you in the long run, say 10pts per round 10x10=100. 5. If you have more than 7 trades you can add roughly 6pts per round per trade up to a max of 10, so potentially 18pts x 10 rounds 180pts but that is pushing it a bit, I rounded down to 1 more than you need or 8 trades max in my equation, about the most a person that far up the ladder would have. 1 extra trade 6pts x 10 rounds = 60pts. 6. Therefore the maximum a coach can be behind from here and catch the leader is 800+100+60 = 960pts or 205th position. 7. Trades are important but you really can't have more than 10 atm, 3-4 upgrades from here assuming you have 18/19 premos on the field already and 6-7 injury trades. 8. Your team including money in the bank should be worth around $13m or just over now. This seems to be a constant with most teams in the top 200. 9. During the next 10 rounds there is a 20% chance if a premo is injured you will have him. There is a 50% chance the teams in front of you will have him depending who he is of course. This is where extra trades help if lots of premos go down in the next few rounds, if that happens this will add extra value to any extra trades you have over the minimum 7 I worked out from here. Keeping in mind your extra trades will only be of value after everyone else has used theirs, about rnd 21 resulting in only 3 or so rounds of 'extra value'. Any questions? Because I'm confused now
Come to think of it, there is no point coming up with an equation with your whole squad or comparing your team to any team other than the leader each week. Only your POD players, your captain and your trades/$ should be a factor from here. There is no point having the same team as 1st place now if you're 500th, you won't catch him. So maybe take POD players value/avg from your team and compare them to 1st place and see if that helps. Call the average trades of the leading teams about 6/7 with maybe 100k in the bank and go from there.
Nice work GB! Giving it some more thought & now I'd consider even that 960 points to be too far away, because even though good captain choices and a good run might gain some on the leader, there'll always be others among the leading group who'll also have made the perfect captain choices & dodged the same bullets, so if we have a good round & gain 100 on the leader, chances are that rather than us taking a giant leap in the rankings, the leader would fall back and there'd be another top 20 team who we gained only 10 points on, am thinking now, that perhaps half of that, within 480 points of the lead might be more realistic. Trades remaining could be a huge factor here, every top 100 team must have traded hard and especially so through bye rounds to get into such a strong position. All it would take is a late season injury to a top premium or 2, to a trade depleted team & it's all over for them. History tells us a front runner holds on for the win for over all & the swoopers win the leagues, but with the trading required through bye rounds to get to front runner this season, the leaders would have to be low on trades and vulnerable. It'll be interesting to see how it pans out.
1057 / 27366 / 7trades / 13,827,600 Are you still a chance at overall Fidel? Happy with my aim of top 1000...well and truly in sight now! My team is complete but I want to upgrade Giles and Dempsey, and also get Scotty Thompson for the finals (sideways for Swallow or upgrade Jmac)
nah, 416th too far off, your 13.8k value is impressive, there's only 1 team in the top 10 within 300k of that, assuming the leaders have all their cash in play, so you'll be 1 premium up on the leaders and 1 or 2 trades better off, probably too far away to catch them but a big finish into the top 100 should be on the cards, GL.
Ok I have something but it would need to be plotted on a graph week to week to give you an indication of whether you can win. I'm not sure how trades factor in but they would certainly affect your weekly value once used, if you have a few more than those around you, you may notice a steep ascent late in the competition. Say 205 are able to win from this round using the equation from my previous post. I sit 52 at the end of this week for example, I divide 205 by 52 = 3.942 then using a logarithm (just press the log button on the calculator) i get the value .595 the leader gets a value of 205 divided by 1 = 205 log10 = 2.3. Their value will decrease as the size of the potential winning field narrows each week. Mine on the otherhand must go up, so if by my previous calculation, next round there are only 192 potential winners I must move up to 48th to achieve the same value. Your value by the last few weeks should be approaching 1.0 and extra trades at this point may add a lot to your value if you are still in the equation. You may need more than a few weeks for a graph to take shape but it will give you a good indication as to where you will finish depending on remaining trades.
There are so many other factors that could affect this and I have rounded a lot of numbers off to make them easier to calculate but this was the simplest sum I could come up with.
11,455 / 26530 / 9 trades / 13,320,600 19 premiums in the team (a couple injured for another week or two, though) Feel confident for a good run at league finals which is largely what I was concerned with this year anyway.
<blockquote>Quote from fidelsfinger on June 25, 2012, 23:35 nah, 416th too far off, your 13.8k value is impressive, there's only 1 team in the top 10 within 300k of that, assuming the leaders have all their cash in play, so you'll be 1 premium up on the leaders and 1 or 2 trades better off, probably too far away to catch them but a big finish into the top 100 should be on the cards, GL.</blockquote> I only have 20k in the bank, so I can assume that a few of the leaders would most likely have a few hundred k's sitting in the bank. Good luck also! You should easily make top 100.