I've just been revisiting some previous Beat the Best posts and am really curious what people think. 2 weeks ago, a lot of people including some coaches near enough to the top agreed that Cheeky was almost home and hosed. I think the difference was almost 900 points between 1-10. I was one who didn't think it was all over for a lot of teams and now things have really changed and with the multi byes coming up, there are real opportunities to make up ground again. I don't consider myself to be able to be one of the teams to make up the ground over the last 8 weeks (1300 off the pace) but considering what has happened in the past 2 weeks, how far do people feel is too far back to make a tilt at the title?
I said it was not home and hosed but he'd be in a position where he'd have to have some bad weeks. If Cheeky has trades in the bank, then he will go past Impromptu and maybe Wood is Good. But yeah the losses experienced in massive scoring weeks by teams have been more than I expected from the lead bunch. The multi byes with Pavlich-Fyfe-Sylvia etc and then O'Keefe-Goodes-J Roo etc, will be very interesting. I'd say up to 1500 away and you can't win full stop, but this season we have seen swings and roundabouts and so therefore my advice, as often is the case, is always keep having a go, never give up because the wheel can turn your way. If StKilda Thunda keeps going at his current rate, even he could win the thing LOL
LOL now wouldnt that be the fairy tale story of the year. Sitting 76K after round 8 or 9 and storms home to take it out!!!! But seriously im in 4500 position now, only 300 points from 1500th spot. Im backing myself by years end to be top 1000 with that in mind. (btw im only 1700points off top spot!! watch out Impropts )
At about the same time 2 weeks ago I said that the top 10 were basically the only teams with a chance, and then said the top 5 (which was Cheeky Boys, Joshua's Team, Wood is Good, Impromptu SCE, Dirty Whorks)were the teams that I tipped to win it, since then, the top 5 has changed, and now stands (Impromptu SCE, Wood is Good, Cheeky Boys, Sack The Coach FFC & Joshua's Team). I rightly picked "Cunning Stunts" who was 6th at the time out of the race, since then he has dropped 12 places to 18th Overall. Dirty Whorks has dropped to 9th place after a low scoring week of (2367). The Cheeky Boys has dropped from 1st to 3rd, and Wood is Good has been steady and holds his 2nd place. Run Down of The Top 10 Teams 1st: Improptu SCE (34,366) This Week, if all players make their averages, Impromptu will score around 2188 + a Captain Choice (assuming Gary Ablett). Looks a solid score for the Multi Bye Round, and may have an edge over the other sides in contention for the following reason. Missing: Pavlich, Lower, Mzungu, Callinan. Projected Overall After Round 16: 36,683 2nd: Wood is Good (34,361) Just 5 points behind Impromptu SCE. If all of Wood is Good''s players make their averages, he'll score 2201 + Captain's Score (assuming Gary Ablett). Personally I think Wood is Good is still going strong, he has a full strength Midfield & Backline this week, but will have to bench a premium, Brendon Goddard has to go somewhere. Going Strong. Missing: Pavlich, Lower, Mzungu, Howe. Projected Overall After Round 16: 36,693 3rd: The Cheeky Boys (34,273) 93 points behind 1st placed Impromptu. If all players make their average The Cheeky Boys will score 2148 + a Captain (assuming Scott Pendlebury). Missing: Pavlich, Thompson, Sylvia, Mzungu, Callinan. Projected Score After Round 16: 36,545 4th: Sack The Coach FFC (34,206) 160 points behind first placed Impromptu SCE. If all make their average this week he'll score a massive 2340 + a Captain (assuming Gary Ablett). That looks like a monster score for the multi bye round and not missing many players. Has come out of nowhere and in my opinion has a chance. Missing: Pavlich, Callinan. Projected Score After Round 16: 36,675 5th: Joshua's Team (34,151) 215 points behind 1st placed Impromptu SCE. If all make their average he will score 2166 + a Captain (assuming Scott Pendlebury). A pretty good score, but will be missing a few this week. Missing: Pavlich, Sylvia, Lower, Moran. Projected Score After Round 16: 36,441 6th: Don't Do....Think! (34,136) 230 points behind 1st placed Impromptu SCE. If all players make their average his score will be 2277 + a Captain (assuming Gary Ablett). Good position and will crack 2400 with the Gary Ablett (C) choice. Missing: Pavlich, broughton, Sylvia, Mzungu, Callinan. Projected Score After Round 16: 36,552 7th: El Presidente V (34,122) Sits 244 points behind 1st placed Impromptu SCE. If all players make their averagé his score will be 2184 + a Captain(assuming Gary Ablett). Missing: Pavlich, Thompson, Broughton, Martin, Mzungu, Callinan. Projected Score After Round 16: 36,435 8th: BlueHeaven (34,120) 246 points behind 1st placed Impromptu SCE. If all make their averages he will score 2209 + a Captain (assuming Gary Ablett). Nice score. Missing: Fyfe, Griffin, Mzungu, L.Thompson, Spencer. Projected Score After Round 16: 36,458 9th: Dirty Whorks (34,117) Is 249 points behind 1st placed Impromptu SCE. If all make their average this week Dirty will score 2217 + a Captain (assuming Gary Ablett). Buddy killed him last week, surely you're scared of a Franklin Captain choice for now? Missing: Pavlich, Fyfe, Lower, Campbell. Projected Score After Round 16: 36,463 10th: ffc (34,092) Is 274 points behind the 1st placed Impromptu SCE. This week if all make their averages ffc will score 2257 + a Captain (assuming Gary Ablett). Very good score in the multi-bye week. Projected Score After Round 16: 36,478 The Would Be Leaderboard 1st: Wood is Good = 36,693 2nd: Impromptu SCE = 36,683 3rd: Sack The Coach FFC = 36,675 4th: Don't Do....Think! = 36,552 5th: The Cheeky Boys = 36,545 6th: ffc = 36,478 7th: Dirty Whorks = 36,463 8th: BlueHeaven = 36,458 9th: Joshua's Team = 36,441 10th: El Presidente V = 36,435 This is barring trades, highest average Captain Choices and MPP. Next week Hawthorn has the bye. Sack The Coach FFC is climbing steadily and I think he has a good chance to win it, with Hawks bye next week, he'll only be missing Franklin + Puopolo & Smith. Good position. Come on Impromptu, Dirty Whorks, Joshua's Team & El Presidente V. The competition has closed in extremely over the past few weeks, 2 weeks ago when The Cheeky Boys was 1st, he had a 300 point lead on anyone bar P2 & P3 (this is from Lucas' comment), now, at this stage with Prompts leading, he has his 300 point lead from 1st-13th, rather than from 1st-4th or what's not. The competition can change heaps in the space of a couple of week. And if you count my predictions, it's only a 158 lead from 1st-10th, and closing in fast, too. There is still 8-9 rounds left, and any team if they score well enough and climb steadily (like I said, 158 diff from 1st-10th is tiny, and a 300 point lead from 1st-4th or something has closed in, that's around 140-150 points slashed in the space of a few weeks, any team inside the top 50 may have a shot at it in my opinion with those stats, and if their team is good enough.) I think Wood is Good & Sack The Coach FFC are in good positions, but go TSers all the way! Sorry for the massive post, you may get bored reading it but there was a lot of statistics & predictions to get through.
good work sainter from my perspective currntly ranked 45th overall and would need a lot of luck, having said that i'm not hurt by this weekends multi bye so hoping to make ground, i think from where i am will need to jag the right captain and obviously a different one than the leaders for a few rounds, maybe swanny could pump out a 200 and pray the leaders choose wrongly, anyhow i like your dedication in posting this all the best with your team.
@skiddy All the best to my team? LOL, funniest thing I've heard , I'm ranked 27,000, got no chance. Good luck skiddy, you're still in the race for it I reckon, I think Swanny may get back to pumping those big 160+ scores out for you. Left-Field Captain Choices will help you to get back in it I reckon instead of going same old-same old Ablett, Pendlebury or Judd. Good luck.
Nice post Sainter, a really good read! @ Lucas, very true about trades. That is the variable that I don't know, maybe you do though. I'd be speculating but think that by R19, there will be plenty of high placed teams with no trades left, really just covering the multi bye and then rolling the dice home. Good luck to all the TS teams.
Great work Sainter. Good read. The last couple of weeks have definately made things very interesting (obviously except from Cheeky's point of view). Even those sitting outside the top 10 are still very much in the race if a few things can fall their way.
Thanks sainter - good work mate The next 3 weeks will obviously sort a lot out. Come round 20, I reckon the field will be narrowed a lot, but atm I reckon anyone within 1000 points are still a chance. Approx top 250. Well I'd like to think so anyway. I reckon this year with the byes, and specifically multi-byes, someone could come from way back to win it. A lot would have to go right for them though. Go hard or go home, if in this position (ranked 100 to 250) Gotta take risks and hope for the best.
Alright i thought it would be interesting to see what kind of points you can make up in a short period of time. Well since Round 9 im averaging 2357 points... The current leader is only averaging 2291 for the year. I have gone from 71K overall upto 4589. Thats a hell lot of ground in very short space of time. End of Round 8 Impromptu SCE: 17,951 Big Test Icicles: 16,104 Difference: 1897 End of Round 15 Impromptu SCE: 34,366 Big Test Icicles: 32,604 Difference: 1762 So even though im ave 2357 over past 7 weeks, I have only gained 135 points over that entire 9 week period over the current leader. During that period ive only had 2 scores below 2300, a 2239 & 2129. So i would say to have a realistic shot at winning it you need to be within maybe 300 points and you have to nail it every week. You cant afford to have i off week like i did last week. Need to score over 2350 for rest of the year..... Not as easy as it sounds cos remember the top teams are still upgrading....
That's interesting stkT. Thanks for working that out. I still reckon the multi-bye rounds could bring out some surprising results that see someone come from way back. .
Yea i agree, multi bye weeks you can easily catch up 200 points in a week if you play your cards right.. Im only missing Broughton, Pavlich & Thompson this week. and have good cover in mid/back but not up forward. I was looking at it and im only like 600 points off the top 1000 and i reckon i can make that up easily and would be a remarkable effort for me to finish in the top end considering the balls up i had at the start of year....
sainter i reckon with your passion you'll be a chance next year. this is my first year on too serious my 4th year on supercoach and lovin the forums and ideas keep up the good work
Excellent work Sainter with your post, fantastic analysis. Wood is good is definitely the favourite from here, Goddard currently at M7 with a full premium backline is a luxury. Anyone currently around 1000 points away could still win it IMO, especially if those at the top run out of trades. I've jumped from over 700 points behind to 244 behind in the space of 2 weeks. 2 trades for me this week then hold for a while (barring injury) and keep some up my sleeve for later on. Good luck to all the TS'ers at the top!
Nice work Sainter, very interesting read.... I find myself in 886th place this week after hovering around the 2000s for the first half of the season and it sort of makes you think, well what if? 6 trades left and firmly entrenched in the top 4 in all leagues and no doughnuts to speak of this week or rd 19 bar goodes and delideo but have full benches to pick from. Im telling myself to just sit tight and go bang for the league, but the little voice within is whispering go bang bang bang now and see what happens
NV can you do a quiet bang now and then another for the leagues? In other words keep some powder dry but bring in some guys who have already had a bye. I'd suggest doing a trade this week and a trade next week, then holding 4 for LTI's. Only for upgrades though if you can manage it.
@Lucas, possibly.... fully upgraded except for d7 and Smith in the ruck. Havnt given it much thought to be honest, like i said im fighting the little voice so i havnt been thinking trades at all. Heres my team, what do you think... Deledio, Goddard, Fisher, Gibbs, Broughton, Heater, Heppel (Puopolo L.Thompson Toy) Murphy, Pendles, Boyd, Ablett, Swan, Boak ( Hibberd Bewick Mzungu) Cox, Smith (Mcauley, Tippet J) Goodes, Buddy, Petrie, Chappy, Pavlich, Fyfe, NRoo (Darling, I smith, Lynch) Have to trade Murphy in rd23 not so concerned about Gibbs, Puopolo Heppel and Hibberd have shown their capable of a 90+. So thats 5 trades left really.... Was thinking of swapping Petrie for Sandi when he came back, thats now off the table and was thinking Callinan for Bewick but thats off the table as well now with his hammy. Cash flow isnt great 10.5k, i think im done! have to trade down before upgrading Smith same goes for d7 i guess, havnt checked the market for a gun defender in a while.