It's SC GF week which means AFL finals are just around the corner and the teams are locked in, Just got me thinking how far people think their supported teams are from lifting the cup? Because although the mighty bombers have snuck into the September action, they are still seasons away from a premiership IMO - although I hope they can upset the blue boys week 1, they ain't got a hope off going deep into finals series. For mine I reckon the GF will be Collingwood vs. Hawks (who im tipping will upset the cats in prelim) I think in season 2014 essendon will be a force to be reckoned with, once blokes like Hurley and heppell are up and about. Who will win it this year and how far off is your team?
I expect, or probably would like to see a Geelong V Collingwood Grand Final, best two teams all year, but anything can happen in football, both teams have 18 players on the field, 3 on the bench and a sub, so anything is possible. I'd love Saints to make it past the first round, IMO, if we don't beat Carlton, it will be quite tough at ANZ Stadium. Obviously would love te Saints to win the premiership, but I'm not sure how we'll go, we need to beat Carlton to really make a statement. We have to face the facts, even if it means heart break, Pies V Cats for mine. Excuse if I've got it all wrong on who plays who, but these are my tips; Week 1; Collingwood V West Coast Geelong V Hawthorn Carlton V Essendon St Kilda V Swans (hey, I can dream! ) Week 2; West Coast V Carlton Hawthorn V St Kilda Week 3; Collingwood V Hawthorn Geelong V West Coast Grand Final - Week 4; Geelong V Collingwood Only cause I don't want those Collingwood ferals next door burnig there house down on Grand Final Day like they almost did last year Apologies Pies fans, but if you saw my neighbours, you'd be thinking the same regardless I think I might have the who plays who reversed after week 1, just correct me if I did. Norm Smith for Selwood. Not sure how Saints will fare next year, hopefully up there again, but you never know with all the duds we have that Lyon continues giving games to. Hopefully Cripps Adds a new dimension up forward, hopefully Gamble chases hard instead of half heartedly, hopefully Kosi keeps taking those contested marks like he has recently. Roo needs to fire, obviously. Forward line is where we need to jump, every week too, not once a month, goal spread, and Dawson doing some weights for better one on one body work, and 80% more one on one's with Roo/Kosi in the pre season. He just gets pushed out too easily from Cloke, Roughie etc. ?
Thats funny mate, because my team is 5 weeks away from winning the grand final - the perfect fairytale! I'd love to see an Eagles v Cats grand final (my boys have a pretty good record in those), but I fully expect to see a Collingwood v Hawthorn grand final (with the Hawks beating the cats in week 1). I tip the Eagles to be in the top four over the next 3-4 years, and maybe win one premiership. After that we'll have a Gold Coast and GWS period of dominance (say in 4 to 8 years time), then we'll finally get back to the status quo of a more even competition.
I reckon Essendon has the potential in 2-3 years to win the big one. They would want to get it done because after that its going to be all GC and GWS.
You can all get set with me. No one is going to beat Collingwood this year. Hawks will be found out when the finals start. You cant play that uncontested chipping the ball around stuff in finals. Collingwood have Geelong's measure, they will just put so much pressure on the ball carrier it will force the Cats into mistakes. As for my team, maybe we will contend in 5 years time once we move to Adelaide Oval and get a decent number of games into high draft picks we are going to receive. Plus we must keep Butcher at all costs.
Hey Steve remember our bet from the start of the year..... I reckon Its pretty safe now.... Gotta say like others the top 2 look to be the best bet for GF this year. hard to come from 5-8th to win it. But their is 4 teams that could cause upsets. WC coz of thier marking targets and attacking play. Sydney could as they play stiffle footy and love it hard and contested which is what finals is about. Hawks as they are the best kicking side(no stats) And some of thier boys love the big stage.... Bombers could if they get through week one as thier brand of footy is high risk/reward, just gotta keep opposition scores down...
Hawthorn Geelong Grand Final I think. The Hawks will beat the Cats in week one, but the Cats will come back and start to hit form in preliminary final week against the Pies. Should then be a close Grand Final with The Cats taking it out as revenge for 08
Interesting and maybe irrelevant stat number one Of the current finals contenders, Geelong has lost its most recent final against all except Essendon. Collingwood - PF 2010 St Kilda - QF 2010 Hawthorn - GF 2008 WCE - GF 1994 Carlton - GF 1995 Sydney - SF 2005 Essendon - SF 2004 ---- Think Bearfly will be correct, unless injuries or one bad day affects the Magpies. Fully possible with a very strong top 5 teams that the intangibles can impact, but the Pies have the game plan at full strength to beat their rivals. 20-1 is a very solid record, and it hasn't exactly come against soft opposition. Hawthorn v Geelong is more likely if Hawks get defeated first week of finals, and rise for a victory v Collingwood in a preliminary final. WCE will not be easily beaten in the first week of the finals by Collingwood, but if that occurs, it will be difficult, I feel, for Geelong to upset the applecart in the Prelim - could be a repeat of the scenarios from 2007-2009-2010, the weeks' rest makes all the difference. My thought is Coll v Haw, but that's largely dependent on the first finals week.
The scary thought is I reckon Collingwood have been purely in tuning up mode, they like all the great teams do, ala the Bombers in '00, Brisbane '01-03, they just seem to have an extra gear from everyone else. Teams seem to be able to mix it with them for a half or three quarters and then they flick the switch and ice the game in a 10 minute period of total dominance. The record from the regular season would suggest otherwise but I think hawks are a better chance to get up against the pies in a prelim than the cats are. Just seems to be a fair bit of similar lead up as 08’ when hawks “stole it†from the best performing teams all season. Rioli’s form will be pivotal to the hawks finals run as he adds another dimension to their game.
Agree 22, Rioli's injury-riddled year is a real concern for Hawthorn. On the injury front, really only Geelong have had it relatively easy, which I guess along with a "Brisbane 2003 passion" puts them back in the mix. Hawks worries with LTIs have been diabolical, and the Pies have been beset by small 'death by 1000 cuts', which at least in both cases has proved helpful in finding the best alternate replacement candidates for these positions.
Sticking to the exact question raised in the forum topic....I would say 5 years. I have three areas of interest in September : (i) The First Test (of three) from Galle starts tomorrow. (ii) Only two weeks until the first Grp 1 of the Spring Carnival (iii) Collingwood to be smashed with injuries, reports, chronic smugness, and illegal betting and to go out in straight sets ( I wish!)
Dan I have not forgotten about our bet at the start of the season. Send me an email and we can work how to transfer the money to you. Enjoy the first round of the finals because that is the only finals game the Bombers will be playing this year, lol.
Well as a lonely Crows supporter, I reckon 4 years away. New coach, some injury free years and we should be competitive - again. For this year, its hard not to see a Coll Vs Geel GF. With Collingwood (unfortunately) winning.
Lucas, Ill just say.. 2008 & 2009.... Geelong & Saints were miles ahead of any other team that year and both didnt win the premiership.
Completely agree SKT, nothing can be taken for granted. Complacency and a very soft draw were factors for Geelong in 2008 (in H&A played Hawks once, Dogs once, Saints once, Pies once - getting their butts whipped). Underestimated Hawks who went 17-5, a great result in most other years. Cats did have the GF on their plate at half time they should have been well up 6.12 v 8.3. History shows 34 scoring shots to 25 including the tactical rushed behinds. This GF debacle hurt St Kilda the following year with a 20-2 record. This was one game less of a gap because the 2nd place Geelong ended up 18-4. By the quirk of fate of the final 8 draw, the 1st team generally has to play 3rd in the prelim, which can catch them out. I think the tough prelim in 2009 v Doggies hurt the Saints, and might have been a factor in them not able to run out the game. The bigger factor of course, was the Geelong hurt factor which kicked in midway through that last term. Similarly the Saints had the chance in 2010 to use their hurt to inspire a similar back-to-the-wall success. Unfortunately (for them) the Pies were able to scramble a draw. So - onto this year. Do Geelong or Hawthorn have a hurt factor? No not really. For the top 3 teams it's all about dynasty building, as they are the past 3 premiers. WCE don't have much hurt because they are treating everything as a bonus. Their finals series really will be defined in week 1. A win, and they will play in a GF. A loss, and they will most likely have a hefty PF loss to go home with. Really the team with the hurt factor is St Kilda. I would suggest it will be miraculous if they were able to win 4 successive high intensity finals. Going into the finals, have to say the top two sides should get there and play off, considering Geelong has been the team that has beaten the others twice, and the Pies have beaten everyone else, I'm not out of line in suggesting the Pies v Cats GF
Blues in 5th place. Have won 5 premierships against the pies and are 5 weeks away from doing it again! Either that or we'll get knocked out in first week.