Moooo! Ahh. the sound of a cash-cow, prime for the slaughter! What a wondrous sound it is, allowing you that last trade up to some prime premium talent, catching your grand final opponent unawares and stealing the silverware! But my question is: "When is a cash-cow ripe?" Whilst factors such as ability to cover as genuine emergency (Harris) or possibly improvement into possible keeper status (Curnow?) will obviously effect the decision, I'm wondering at what point people are completely happy to pull the trigger on a down grade purely to make cash. $50k? $100k? $200k?
I wouldn't put a cash value on it. Not much point waiting for a rookie to gain another 30k if you miss the boat on a trade-down or upgrade target. The following circumstances might mean its better to trade before they reach peak price: - Need to jump on another rookie before its too late - Need to upgrade immediately or miss the boat on a fallen premium - Player has a bye next week and is named on extended bench this week, meaning possible exteded leave of absense but you won't know before lockout because they are playing on Tuesday!
Some people will have a basic standard of wanting to make at 100k at least before a trade. I think it's about making as much as you can and then jump off them. When the cow's BE is around their average. Then they no longer will be making lots of money, and it's time to cull. They could make you 300k+ like Curnow or only 80k like a poorly chosen Suns player (I have one of these...sigh). Krak with his performances has an average of 68, his BE is 26 this week, has only made $38,500 (so far hasn't been a great cash cow). In the next 3 weeks will only increase 37,045 if he keeps his average. http://tooserious.net/stats.php?steam=COL A lot of people will be trading him in soon (after the Pies bye), if he doesn't get a chance (or decides) to play like he did in the first round. So, if Sam Iles, or Mitch Wallis come in and start to averages 60-80 then people will be jumping on them. So if a cow in under-performing and a new rookie comes in and starts to blaze away, you will want to jump on the new rookie before their price increase. You blow a trade, but hopefully you've made some cash already (all be it small) to get a better cow. I now have to decide if it's time to drop Bewick for Polec(before price increase) or wait to see how Wallis/Iles go. Of course getting another GCer isn't a preferred option for me. Last years winner was an accountant and stated that you have to treat your players as stock, and not people, sell when they have made you enough or are going downhill and buy the ones on the rise...Adcock/Fyfe for example (ships sailed for me on those ones). So far I only made 1 trade Hibberd to Curnow, I started with a GnR tactic, with many of my Guns not performing well, but not bad enough to drop, and some rookies doing well enough. I'm sticking by not dropping my prems even though I've lost cash on them, they will come good. I'm 400 off the pace, and hopefully will be making those positions back when I upgrade and my prems start firing again, just a matter of time.
Ok, ok, let me rephrase the question... How much money are you happy making from a cow? You pick a player, with the express purpose of making $$ and then the SC gods align themselves perfectly with your plans and you can downgrade at the EXACT perfect time, how much do you want for the trade? $32k for a $200k investment is clearly not enough from Krak, so how much is a good result? I guess I'm strying to put a value on what a trade is worth... One trade to bring a cow in (culling a different cow usually) and then another to trade them out. That's 2 trades out of 24... What're they worth? PS: Yes I know we all want $1 million for each cow, but if they're worth that, they're not being culled, they're captain! This is the ideal profit from a purely cash-cow trade(s).
well with the likes of your curnows, libbas, heppels, smiths and those sorts it is more i beleive a matter of once their price begins to stabalise and not rise quite so dramatically, for most that should happen around round 10-12
Even with the re-phrased question, I reckon demonspud has nailed the answer. There's no magical formula. That's why it's so hard.
for example if Hibberd/Wallis have 2 gun games i will be trading out of one my cows who looks likes his projected rise is flattening out. example Duigan at round 8 after he has played 7 games and his team has the bye trade ins omeone is about to go up in price say a Hibberd if he has only played 2 games and has good job security
Well, when I first picked my rooks from the pre-season, I looked at if they would get me at least 200k. That way, when it was time to cash in, I would downgrade one, upgrade another, with cash left over as I would pick a prem whose de-valued...Didak, JRoo, Jnr, etc. Sadly, it isn't a pefect world, some of my rooks are only going to get me 100k while some will get me more, it kind of averages out anyway. Not enough research... I did read somewhere, that a trade is good if it nets you 100k+ or 10-20 pts, but that's just wishful thinking, and trades are worth a lot more than that. Thank God, GC had a day yesterday, and Dixon, Stanley and Wonderkid Matera will have a nice increase over the next 3 weeks, so now I won't have to trade Dixon early as I thought I chose a bad cash cow. Still won't earn me as much, but....
@Demonspud Yeah, I think I'm agreeing. I always think that making less than $100k is a wasted trade. I guess the question is more based on who you choose to trade out when a new cash cow is on the horizon. If I look to bring Hibberd in, because of his MPP status, I can choose from 6 different bench players. One of these is one K. Hunt (GC) and another would be Harris. Harris has already made me $60k and may go as high as another $150k ($200k total). So, do I trade Hunt who's JS is solid, but is never going to make $$$ or be useful as a reserve whereas Harris might be a reserve in a pinch. So choices are: 1) Take the money I've made, missing the potential future earnings and trade Harris (or similar). 2) Trade Hunt (or similar) make a tiny profit, but maximise potential profits. 3) Keep the trade in hand, knowing profits will be made and not burning a trade chasing $$. PS: DS also love the avatar!
ok, the toughest part for me is if you have a Curnow, which I don't. He might average 85 to 110 and get his $$$ up pretty quick, why kill the cow? You could just as easily leave him in the team longer knowing he's getting you those points weekly even though his price may have steadied and he's probably not yet a premium, but have a look at Roo, Gibbs etc, they aren't a garuanteed 100 each week either... Should you trade the cow who is not doing as well but not make so much money out of the trade? or make the $$$ but lose the points?
Thanks MM and Hornsy, Do you already have Heppell as a link? Don't trade too early, especially those who can make a lot more. Hunt looks to peak at around 132k after the 44SC against PA at the end of rnd 7. If Hibberd gets his two games soon, trade him when he is listed to play his 3rd, so pull the pin on Hunt. Unless a miracle happens and Hunts starts scoring and his worth goes up. It might hurt as you don't make much money, but you need to know when enough is enough. Harris as a lot more games to really increase, he looks to be able to reach 350k, so if you can hold off on the trade keep him until then, but keep an eye on his BE(Breakeven), and once again, only trade him for someone worthwhile, perhaps Mzungu around rnd 11 or 12 (once again, only trade when your new rookie is ready). Of course, these ideas are all about getting the most out of your cash cows. A spanner might be thrown into the works if a prem drops in price that really needs to be picked up ASAP (JRoo), or a rising star comes out of the blocks ie Fyfe and/or Adcock (yet to be seen if they can hold form). So you might have to trade in a cow before they are ripe. I was going to ask how many trades you make, but it doesn't matter when trading out cash cows as its about moving them on to get the new ones in (especially the low scoring ones)
@Zander League or Overall? For me, at the moment, Curnow is an 'on the field' late cash cow. If I need the money he might go as something unexpected might pop up. If I trade him, it's going to be classed as an upgrade for a "Pendles, Chappy, or Jnr" type of prem who will score more than him. I certainly won't be trading him for another cash cow, I need him on field for the points. Blues with a bye in the Finals, is a great trade at the end of the season for someone who will play through-out the finals. Heppell also looks to be this type (and perhaps Darling). It is a long season though, and it's nice to have players to stick with all year, however Curnow has had a pretty serious injury from the past and LTIs can occur. So you can play it like chess and try and stay 20 moves ahead, but be ready for a Crazy Ivan to pop up.