Now that I'm out of the running for overall, I've done some research as a way of planning for next year by looking at a 2011 starting team that would be leading by almost 1000 points without a single trade been made. There are a couple of conditions in this - firstly, that we take the score of the premiums that are playing each week when possible and then use the highest scoring bench players when needed. This means that the team could potentially have more points if using the highest scoring players in each line but in reality we back our premiums each week. Secondly, Pendles is perma captain every week except for the weeks he has a bye - then it is Cox. Again the team could have scored a lot more points if the team's highest scoring player was captain each week but as we saw in the recent post on TS we are never going to get that right. Thirdly, MPP is not used at all. So here is the team: Def: H Scotland $461,200 (avg 107.1) S Fisher $443,500 (104.9) G Birchall $387,000 (93.1) R Murphy $346,000 (90.6) J Adcock $333,000 (90.8) M Suckling $223,400 (94.7) S Martin $114,300 (87.6) Bench: D Heppell $153,600 (82.8) D Stanley $117,700 (76.7) N Lower $103,600 (79.8) Mids: N Dal Santo $547,300 (122.4) M Murphy $543,500 (118.4) S Pendlebury $537,900 (128.7) S Mitchell $481,200 (115.8) D Thomas $471,500 (111.8) T Rockliff $418,200 (109.7) Bench: S Savage $110,200 (78.6) T McKenzie $110,200 (69.8) M Wright $103,600 (71.1) Rucks: D Cox $428,200 (126.2) T Goldstein $320,000 (114.9) Bench: Z Smith $117,700 (77.4) M Bailey $110,200 (71.1) Fwds: A Goodes $4458,900 (104.5) R O'Keefe $440,200 (102.9) S Johnson $436,900 (108.9) N Fyfe $353,900 (107.6) D Zaharakis $337,900 (89.5) L Davis $337,100 (98.2) D Petrie $216,000 (96.7) Bench: I Smith $110,200 (79.2) L Markovic $110,200 (48.7) J Darling $103,600 (68.2) Rd by Rd scores for the team: 1: 2069 2: 2342 3: 2281 4: 2148 5: 2244 6: 2137 7: 2129 8: 2587 9: 2404 10: 2469 11: 2619 12: 2202 13: 2607 14: 2483 15: 2335 16: 2391 17: 2597 18: 2551 19: 2664 20: 2504 21: 2295 Total: 50,058 (lead of 876) The things that stand out to me are: - There are a few players that weren't seriously on the radar in the pre-season (eg. Fyfe, Suckling, S Martin) but most of the others were - Loading up on premium midfielders maximises points - Going cheap on defenders but finding those in the D3-7 category that can average 90-95 for the season is gold - This team doesn't really hit its straps until Rd 8 I've got no doubt someone can come up with a better team that would generate even more points, but I thought I'd post this as a start.
Great work Ex-Prez. Regarding picking more quality mids at the start of the year, was something that I was thinking about as well. It probably depends on the quality of mid-pricers / rookies available up forward and down back. This does give a little more credence to the midpriced strategy. Would love to see previous years results to this.
Great read ExPrez, does it show we overthink it too much sometimes. I'm seriously thinking of having a better starting midfield next year at the risk of those more expensive backs as you've indicated. Also wondering if the ruck bias (scoring) would allow us to go cheap there as well for R2
I forgot to mention - the total salary is $9,887,100 - more than $100k in the kitty. The team also cops a few donuts along the way - even in Rd 1 in the rucks with Goldstein missing.
Great analysis ExP. Really highlights the importance of getting the starting team right and trusting your selections. Would require nerves of steel to not tinker. Never close to winning the car but gets the chockies. You may have created a whole new thought /decision making process. May have to change ur name to the Returned Prez.
You also have to note the players you didn't choose in order to pick that team. These would include Swan, Sandilands, Judd, Selwood, Hodge, Boyd, Franklin, etc. To get all those midpricers right is pretty much not going to happen. Suckling was one that maybe 10% had at start of year. Martin you could have got before bubble Rockliff was unexpected The midrange ruck is the key to the whole thing. Should have done it myself after so many teams have won with that combo. Davis would have hurt early before rewarding the faith. Most would have said see ya. Smith has been an amazing coverage later in the year, but do they always appear? Most would have had to get him in after he broke his bubble (sat on 2 games for a long time - most of us would have got impatient and moved him on before then) I don't reckon the bench players are that strong, but I think you are utilising those who come good late rather than early, and that's almost impossible to pick at the start of a year. Good exercise for sure, and I'd be certain there's some good points to work through. Just thinking that you could have a more star-laden team to do this as well - the midprice element of this team might be a touch too mythologised.
Very interesting, but as has been said would have been very difficult to pick all those midpricers accurately
I did this exercise earlier in the year for 2010 and came up with similar results. If I can find it I'll post it later. Whilst its virtually impossible to get all those mid-pricers right, it shows how much benefit you can get from them. This is why I still advocate taking a punt on a few rather than going full GNR. I started this year without all 7 of the players Lucas mentioned. I always start with a mid-price R2 but got it badly wrong this year(Fraser=spud). One of Prompts best moves this year was not starting Goddard.
Thats incredible! Nice work ExPrez. So anyone keen to go the first half of next season without making a trade, then storming home for the win???
Think my mates supercoach teams which have many mid prices in them are proof enough why not to go the mid price strategy. Yes that team ended up being great, but it was more likely to go 1600 a week.
thats a great read exprez. but i have to gree with lucas here, its just too difficult to get those mid pricers right. if you think about it those mid pricers dont really make up even a quarter of the potentialmid pricers at the start of the year.. so if you get it wrong, it can really hurt. having said that the upside certainly is appealing!
This is a team you could have started 2010 with if my calculations are right? I did this in pre-season and was trying to work out the best possible team you could have started with in hindsight. Backs: Hodge Lake Kelly Milburn Malceski Gilbee Grundy Waters Stratton Mids: Goddard Judd Selwood Cross Jack Barlow Howlett Bastinac Rucks: Sandilands Mumford Trengove Skipper Fwds: Franklin Rioli Thomas Giansiracusa J.Riewoldt Staker Podsiadly Rockliff Peterson This may well not be the very best team you could have had but that was my aim. One conclusion I've drawn from the last 2 seasons is the forwards are much harder to predict. Every year there seems to be easy value to find in the other lines but the forwards just seem so volatile. Maybe its just me but I cant pick them (except Petrie, we all saw that).
Great work ExPrez. Fascinated by it! I'm in my 2nd SC year but only found TS this year. I was only a partial convert to the GNR strategy. I therefore find the revisiting of mid-pricers interesting as I reckon I started with too many. Happy with the relative success of Suckling, Adcock, Yarran and Cotchin. But counter that with Johnson (FRE), Everitt, Rohan and Duncan. Hurley, Ward, Boak and Higgins were OK but not SC quality and were traded out fairly early with little or no salary increase. I also have Vickery who remains in the team. Of the 13 mid-pricers, only 4 showed SOME success. So I must agree with Lucas, shanaz and Squiz. And another argument for GNR, I've trade-tracked my two major leagues this year. The ladder in both is almost a perfect measure of the number of rookies in Rd 1. More rookies, higher position. GNR for me next year!!
<blockquote>Quote from JPK on August 19, 2011, 22:39 So anyone keen to go the first half of next season without making a trade, then storming home for the win???</blockquote> Save those trades. Rookies galore.
Very interesting read ExPrez.Ihave kept post and it will definately come out next year when picking team.
The only captain I can see in that list is Goodes? It was just something Impromptu said in the yscc interview about picking captains that I was reminded of. Mind you I'm sure a Judd, Pavlich, Boyd, Newman or Ablett could all slot in nicely to that team
Appreciate the post, but to me this exercise is like saying that if you picked the 6 correct numbers in Tattslotto you would be a millionaire. Yes it can happen, but the likelihood of it occurring is remote. You have to bear in mind as well for the above team that the lineup has had very good luck with regards to injuries and that all the players' byes probably linked nicely together...not to mention having psychic abilities in correctly picking 10 midpricers, nailing all rookies, and not picking any dud premiums - all easier said than done! I can't even pick my captains correctly from week to week! The problem with midpricers is that there is not enough reward for the initial risk you take (and on the flipside, the potential cost is huge). Picking Fyfe is great, but you wouldn't be cheering too much if you picked up Callan Ward or Chris Yarran - the latter would result in salary foregone, lost points and wasted trades to rectify, as well as sleepless nights. Don't think many Leon Davis owners would have been crowing about him at the start of the season... As long as rookies are priced at a discount to non-rookies, GnR will always be the strategy to go if you are looking to win overall.