Everyone can write about players from their teams who they think could improve their scores in 2011 and increase their value ADELAIDE A.Otten-The obvious one, missed all of 2010 and will therefore be nicely priced. With the potential move into the midfield could average around 80. B.Martin-Only played 4 games across 2 years mainly due to injury, but this guy can play and should play and score very highly dont count out him out of averaging 90. C.Knights-Will be cheap after injury last for most of last year and averaging way below what he normally would, could prove as a nice cash cow in 2011 B.VinceHe was elite in late 09 again injury plagued him in 2010, but he can average 100. He has had recent setback with his knee but should be right for Rd 1. P.Dangerfield-His average last year didnt reflect his improvement. At some stage hes going to explode and score big scores. Im tipping for him to steadily improve again and average early-mid 80s or could hopefully have a genuine breakout year.
In regards to the Adelaide players, you would not touch Vince (has yet to prove he can handle a tag), Dangerfield (I picked him at the start of the year and he cost me big time - turns the ball over too much in SC). Otten will be in everyone's team as he will be the sweeper in the backlines for the Crows. As for Port, Marlon Motlop is the interesting one. Apparently is being groomed to take over Krakouer's role on the half back flank and is listed as a forward. Will be watching him very closely in the NAB cup. Never touch Higgins from the Bulldogs - too injury prone for my liking. I rate Ward highly, the kid can play the game but he is at that awkward price where you really want to get huge improvement out of him.
For Collingwood, hard to see much improvement in player scores. The team is pretty even, and the stars had very big 2010 seasons. Cloke averaged 90s while kicking like a dud. Fix that and he becomes the highest scoring SC forward (not that hopeful of this occurring) Macaffer showed he can go very big on occasion, has a very good contested mark for his size, tackles 5 times a game, appears to have fixed his set shot yips. I can see him getting a few 4 and 5 goal games in 2011 even though he is the Pies number 1 defensive forward Jolly should average more. He ended the year stronger with Fraser banished to the VFL. That's why I'm more bullish on him than most. Of the mids, Wellingham would be the one I'd expect to rise to another level in 2011. Fast, wins his own ball, crisp with possessions, hits the scoreboard. Slight query on durability. --- I would agree with Steve on avoiding Vince/Danger - too midrange for my liking. Higgins is one that could be worth a risk though. JnrChappy scored 90 average while injured. If he has a big preseason and starts strong, I think he can become a bonafide forward line premium. His utility status is a handy bonus worth considering. Don't mind Sherman and Vez - but I'd think Vez is a more likely go given the low start price. Sherman again is harder to pick being fairly high start price and not a legitimate premium.
Vince's only problem is his body. If u look at his late 09 scores he was scoring massive consecutive hundreds with the tag. So to say he cant handle the tag is rubbish. The only thing stopping me from picking him is his troublesome knee. On Dangerfield he didnt score very high last year because he didnt get enough ball not that he couldnt use it. I think his numbers and use will improve with every extra year he plays. I thought of some from other clubs SYLVIA- Body issues are behind him, he will become truly elite SHUEY- Hes a very good young player if hes on the park hell get some nice scores. HURN-Average year last year but his kicking is such a feature, and he is suited to SC, If priced as expected hes almost got a guaranteed spot in my team i believe he can average 100 if fit. LEUENBERGER- Body is right now and will play most of the game in the ruck, he could average very nice scores
Thanks for giving a few other options Danger. Vince - Issue is the body and the relatively high start price for that risk. Tag is not a real issue and should be less so in the days of rotation. Can play the game, but represents too much risk for my liking to pick in my squad. Dangerfield - One year some time soon if he gets his engine up he will have a breakout year. The issue I see is that I'm not certain it will be this season or next or the one after that. So after taking the risk last year, I won't be doing the same this season. Sylvia - Too high a start price for mine Shuey - 352k way too high for the risk he won't develop further Hurn - Good solid option. Was tagged hard last year but also injured. Should improve his score greatly and worth a spot particularly in "value" lineups Leuenberger - Good choice for ruck if Mitch Clark needs to play forward for longer. With more experience and time on the ball, a 10-15% improvement in scores is not unexpected.
I guess Danger the other thing we have to have in our minds is what sort of team we are putting together. Most on this site I would suggest would have a gun-rookie combination of some sort. If you are trying to play a team of underpricers, you need to have a lot more skill to pick 90% of them to be improving. In other words in the past few years, it's been easier to say Barlow will do better than 150k, or Scully better than 180 than will Thomas improve, or will Dangerfield improve or will Ziebell improve. The margin for the second lot of players is a lot finer as well. They can do a little better (say 10% if they breakout, but they won't have the big price increase of a player like Barlow/Podsiadly/Rockliff. And there's a fair chance with an injury or two, team balance or change of role, that they will even do worse. It's almost impossible for a rookie to decrease in value (Relton Roberts aside), but it's at least a 35% chance for your mid range players listed. That's why I think that most teams will be trying to avoid having too many players in that dreaded 300-450 zone to start the year. Does this make sense to the community out there?
I think this year u can afford to have a couple. Im only going to have 2-3 maybe 4 absoloute max. Actually i think ull find it hard not to have no midpricers in ur team unless ur going to play alot of rookies(which is always risky) IMO players like Sylvia and Hurn are very safe options, they are cheaper than most elite players, if fit they cant really go backwards because they are young and improving every year. If they arent proven enough for your likely what about Pendles and Murphy they are young proven 100+ scorers they cant go backwards if fit. Young high scorers are so much more valuable that older players
Depends how you class mid-pricers. For example, while Hurn is neither premium priced, nor rookie priced, his scoring suggests that he is a premium player, when injury-free. So while you can define him as mid-priced, you can also think of him as a cheap premium. For me, classing him as a cheap premium instead of a mid-pricer only applies to certain situations, where they are almost certainties to increase their scoring. A mid-pricer is someone like Stephen Milne, who is an awkward price, and i really can't see him making the jump to premium. So while i would include someone like Hurn, who i would ultimately keep as a premium, someone like Milne i wouldn't start with, because the only way to go is down really.
I have to politely disagree with classing Hurn as a cheap premium- that said he'll probably make a fool of me and have a huge year. I'm of the same school of thought as Lucas - premium/rookie teams allow the most money to be made throughout the season (provided you get the right rookies). I agree with Danger that you should limit your exceptions to 2-3 players - any more and the odds go up that one will burn you. I really like the looks of Otten , undecided about Foley but the news that Porplyzia is training with the mids is music to my ears! Of my beloved Swans, I can't see Dennis-Lane, Jetta or Hannenberry going down in value but I'm not convinced they'll increase enough to be worth getting. Any player I pick other than premiums I expect to go up a MINIMUM of 100k.
My midpricers are Adcock, Otten, Petrie, Harris, Fraser & Stanley. 3 of those I've selected due to injury discounts, 2 from moving to the GC and getting much more opportunity and 1 to have a breakout year and replace the recently retired #1 ruckman. The latter (Stanley) is my most doubtful choice, with Hale also in the mix. I don't like trying to pick midpricers who will have a breakout year, which sends me back towards Hale over Stanley...
what are peoples thoughts on brock mclean?? this season he will be priced well enough to warrant selection. HOWEVER, he seems to be too much of a risk. was way too inconsistent last season - mainly due to injury - and he has been prone to injury for a while now. imo he could ave 90+ if fit and healthy. but in saying all this, i dont think i will end up starting with him. but interested to hear what others think. I reckon Hurn, Otten, Petrie, Harris and Fraser are musts. (although does depend on what happens between now and start of season obviously). hopefully harris is priced really cheap. and maybe Higgins and/or Adcock will be in there too. plus Stevie J and ROK if they are considered midpricers? mclean, Gibson, JBrennan are others im considering and M Motlop too, after what Steve said on page 1 and i must add that this is all just speculation at this point, just throwing names out there. i havent considered byes yet. and a lot will depend on actual $ value when announced, of course. and ive named a lot more than what im planning to actually include. at this stage, im thinking between 5 and 8 midpricers will work, but it depends on what one considers a midpricer... ROK/Goodes/StevieJ for example.
McLean = do.not.want. Not convinced completely on Hurn, Otten, Petrie just yet. Wouldn't touch Brennan or Bock until I've seen how GC will play them. Fraser and Harris look fairly solid bets on previous form given the GC team is pretty raw this season.