JP Kennedy is starting to get out of the affordability range - this week will be one of the last weeks where he is reasonably affordable - in the next few weeks its likely he'll be around the $640K mark and still rising. His average is 133.8 (skewed by last rounds outstanding 173), with a year low of 107 (against North) - he's in 5.37% of teams. The Swans have a very good run up until the bye - however in the finals Kennedy will be up against Collingwood, Hawthorn (which didn't stop him on the weekend) and the Cats in the final home and away (the Bulldogs are also in there). Looking back over previous years he averaged around 81 in 2010 and 96 last year - so the rise in his scores this year isn't surprising - more the magnitude of it. He's risen from being a quality inside midfielder with upside into a brownlow favourite and Super Coach star in the first 5 rounds. He's a solid unit built a bit like Pendlbury so he's also good overhead because of his height. Hence he can play forward, take a contested mark and kick goals. Pleasingly he scored very well against the Hawks without the Swans no. 1 Mumford hitting it down to him - albeit against a Hawks team whose ruck stocks aren't exactly premium. The question is whether he'll be a top 6 mid by years end? Is his improvement sustainable over the entire season? He improved ~ 15 points per game from 2010 to 2011 but that improvement from last year in the first 5 games is over 35 points per game. What does everyone think about JP? Worth trading for now or a wasted pick whose average will decline by seasons end?
I would be looking at one of Rockliff or JPK but not both. Top 6 mids for my money will be: GAJ, Pendles, Murphy, Swan, Selwood, then take your pick of around 15!, but probably Rocky
Remember that the Swans have had a pretty soft draw, their draw after their bye gets a fair bit tougher. That is not to say that Kennedy will score any less, but that they have had a pretty easy run so far.
<blockquote>Quote from Astro39 on May 1, 2012, 05:48 He's a solid unit built a bit like Pendlbury</blockquote> Not sure if serious! Pendlebury is the perfect specimen for a modern day footballer. JPK is a tank, Pendlebury is a Rolls Royce. But.. you did ask a question. Top 6 mids for JPK, I'd suggest not. I certainly think he's started well, but he will garner more attention, and this will more than likely affect his performance. He might reduce down to just below Judd, if he gets the treatment I think is coming. Judd I see as just below the top bracket, mainly because of the really hard tag he cops. If JPK cops a tag similar, then I think his DE will go down the tubes to more of an extent than Judd. JPK does have a SC advantage in that he has less players to steal points than Judd, but not that many. Parker and Hannebery stepping up offers the Swans a significant amount of SC points, meaning eventually the 3300 will hurt him. So where will JPK end up? I'd say somewhere between 10 and 20. Mainly due to opposition analysis, and the fact that I see him as not quite enough silk, and a perfect bear hug target. The bigger issue is if you buy him, you will get someone who scores worse than 10-20, because you will have already missed his big points games (the ones he has just been munching on). Someone to consider buying might be Trent Cotchin. When the Tigers turn for home, they have a golden run after the bye, and so you can get him when he truly matures into a near AA mid, something he's been threatening to do this season.
Maybe I didn't make my point that clear. The key is not getting a top 6 mid, but having mids that are top 6 quality for the time they are in your side. So you're not after the best mids to put into your team in terms of overall average over the year, but from when you bring them in. JPK could end up top 15 largely off the back of what he's already done. Ditto Stanton. But if we are looking at futures, what they can do from say round 9 to 23 in the 13 games from there, you might find a whole different top 6. That may or may not include Ablett. I know I'm talking sacrilege but there you go. Do some analysis and make your own call.
Thanks for the replies - yes I was just throwing it out there for discussion - agree with the soft draw and the fact Kennedy will be looked at much more closely by opposing teams from now on. As for the Pendles comparison - I did say "a bit"! Namely I just meant he is a tall mid like Pendles - just on that I think the fact JP is a tank will help him with tags, but having said that I think he will find it hard to maintain this pace over the entire season. In other words while he's top 6 right now he won't be by seasons end; his especially difficult draw at the end against teams that will be scrambling for home finals probably ensures this. Lucas: excellent point about top 6 being relative to the segment of the draw they are in - the SuperCoacher who does best at the end of the season will have weighed up the draw, looked at team rosters, and probably have a POD in there that is playing lights out at the pointy end - obviously there's also a luck element with all of this.
<blockquote>Quote from Lucas on May 1, 2012, 10:11 Maybe I didn't make my point that clear. The key is not getting a top 6 mid, but having mids that are top 6 quality for the time they are in your side. </blockquote> Very very good advice.
The POD at the moment I see is Cotchin Run home after the bye: ADEL MELB GC NM CARL BRIS WB FRE ESS PORT On form Richmond would probably win or be right in most of these games. Cotch has averaged a fair amount so far in games where the 3300 pie has been hotly contested. Certainly one to watch for your M6, should be fairly cheap.
Nice shout out there Lucas. He is def on my radar too but for us in the real world playin just for leagues the week before their bye would be ideal v GWS - could go large. Not sure on the fairly cheap though. I dont think he will drop below the $550k. Reckon he was better than 123 v WC too just quietly. Although his tackle count was down on his norm.