More dark clouds to come? Has been some good discussion in the Forum on the Top 20 which nicely complements Lucas’ Beat the Best. Have had a look at some of the teams to see how badly they might be affected by the absence of Ablett as well as the Hawthorn bye, so this is focused on Round 17 only, which should see some movement in the Top 10. Captain choice will become critical again, with fortunes decided between Swan/Pendles and Judd/Murphy, with some perhaps tempted to go for a POD or NDS. 1. Impromptu. Will welcome Selwood back for Ablett. Thin in FWD with Franklin/Smith, Richo and Callinan, but MPP should see him through. Needs Kreuzer to start firing to beat off the McEvoys and Goldsteins. 2. Cheeky. Has Suckling out but has a choice to swing Goddard back to DEF. Also has Franklin/Smith, but will welcome Sylvia and Mzungu back. No Ablett and should hold his ground this round. 3. Yamum. Looks set for a worry-free week and a good score. No Ablett and has the Cox/McEvoy duo. 4. Wood. Has Suckling/Poopoo, but covered. Also has Ablett, but MID chock full of talent. Has Franklin/Smith + Hale in FWD, so may need to swing Mzungu into there for cover or to fill in for Darling. 5. Sack the Coach. Has Ablett and Callinan in MID, so will be looking for Harris to start. Franklin/Smith and Richo will leave FWD a bit thin. 6. Don’t Do. Has Hodge, Ablett and Callinan in MID and Franklin, Richo and Lynch FWD. 7. El Presidente. Has Ablett, Hodge, Didak and Callinan in MID, but can swing Krak or Mzungu in from FWD. 8. ffc. Has Ablett, Hodge and Callinan. Franklin/Smith FWD with Darling as cover. 9. shags nags. Has Birchall, Tape and Retzlaff in DEF, making it a bit thin. Has Ablett. 10. Fisker. Has Suckling, Poopoo and Toy. Also has Ablett and Hodge. Will rely on Howe to cover for Franklin. 11. Fanfooty. Have Ablett, Hodge and Mitchell in MID, so will need Buckley to play. Bit exposed in the Ruck with Cox/Lobbe the main combo. 12. Riewoldt’s 22. Has Ablett, Hodge, Didak and Callinan in MID, Franklin/Smith and Richo FWD. Likely to be doing some trading. 13. Devil May Cry. Has Ablett and Franklin/Smith, but covered. Main weakness is the Cox/Smith combo. 14. Dirty. Has Suckling/Poopoo and Ablett/Hodge. Also a bit thin in Ruck with Cox/Smith. Has Franklin/Smith and McKernan, leaving him relying on scores from Matera and Lynch. Might be visiting the trade table. 15. Blue Heaven. Has Franklin, McKernan and Richo FWD. 61. Meataxe. To stay in the running, might need the double trade this week (possibly down Poopoo to Talia and up Darling to someone like Cloke). If he can avoid the donut FWD, should score well this round. 96. Lethaldons. Has Ablett, Hodge, Callinan. Also has Franklin/Smith, plus Lynch and Richo FWD, which could prove to be a problem. The top 4 should consolidate their position this round with Yamum looking strong. Changes are more likely to come in the 5-15 group.
Thats some nice work TiB. I agree it will be hard to take points of the leaders this week but think I will have reasonable coverage. If Ablett is out I can play Iles or Mzungu and can use Lower or A Johnson in the backline all those players could or have scored tonnes this season. I'm not overly keen to trade but if Ablett was out for more than 2-3 weeks I think he would be gone for me. My aim this week is to try and peg back 50pts on Impromptu but need my PODS like J Roo, LeCras, Gilbert, NDS, Zaharakis and Leuenberger to all do well but so far they keep spitting out a mixed bag.
Well Shannon, you've made a mighty effort to go top 10. Just count the numbers behind you. Was going to mention I thought Leuenberger was a good POD. Sadly Gilbert doesn't seem to be picking up as St. Kilda come good. LeCras is overdue for a big one and one suspects AJ still has another ton in him. Ablett in or out, Captain choice could make the difference. Even if Ablett does play, expect a lot will be gun shy. It looks like most of your alternative choices for the C have hard opponents this week, so will be interesting to see what Jasmine has to offer. Well done and stick it to them!
I'm flattered just to be mentioned in a post like this, and yes TiB you're correct I'll be forced to trade if ablett misses and Didak or richo can't get on the park. Other than that though I should be fielding a pretty strong side this week, after bringing in Brennan as my swing man if ablett plays I'll only have one rookie on the field in Mzungu. Should be another interesting week but yes I'm pretty exposed this week if there are any injuries or late withdrawals and it could be the end of my charmed run. Good luck to all the TS users near the top!
@Tib Leuenberger has been good to me as he was my trade for Sandi and I was lucky Sandi didn't come back scoring well, main reason I go him was to be a POD. I have been planning to have good bench cover cause as most teams in the top 10 I doubt I will have more than 1 trade left comes finals time. This is the reason to bring in Gilbert and keep Zaharkis (Who I had all year) as they could be on the pine once I have finished trading my team in all positions, both MPP too. I was planning to trade Lower to H Shaw this week but fall $12k short so thinking of leaving Lower in the team and not trading this week and hope he pops out one of those 140's he did earlier in the year. I'm only new to this website and just wondering who your team is and if your are a chance for overall this year?
Nah Shagga, I'm pretty new to this myself, but generally try to help out in the forums and I enjoy a bit of analysis. The good thing about this site is that people who have been at this game for a long time will step in and steer the advice back on course and you end up getting a pretty good balance of opinion. Any chance of overall is a few years away yet. Would like to get lucky and snag a monthly so I could donate it to walesy. Lower will have a bit of work to do this week, so he might score well (if Silvagni doesn't pinch his points). Lucas will be doing a Beat the Best sometime this week (on the main thread) and that should be a must read for you.
@TiB Great analysis, I think we get a bit spoiled on here with the regular updates on the Top 20! For me, with Stefan Martin at D8 and no starting Hawk defender, I can swing a Goddard/Deledio/Gibbs into my mids to cover one of Hodge/GAJ. I'm then hoping Didak plays to cover the other hole and then need to choose one of Mzungu/Lobbe/Krak at F7 for Franklin. What's your thoughts on the team ranked 16, King of Kings? It's my best mate's team and he has quite a few more trades left than I do, and I've still got a few. Also begs the question for those in the Top 20 - are there any other leagues with two teams in the top 20? With me at #7 and KOK at #16 I think we may be the only ones. League is still ranked around the 5000 mark though!
id hate to know how much time you guys spend studying this. i know im risking divorce every footy season and im only ranked 2400 odd! good luck fellas, enjoy the read. go shagga
TiB, very flattered to see my team getting a guernsey in your analysis! I need a lot of rabbits to be pulled out of hats this week: - darling to score 70 against the saints (tough), - if ablett doesn't play, ben Jacobs to pull a big one, - no more withdrawals! Only have 1 trade left, so I'll ride out a donut if I have to as that last trade would be better used on a 4+ week LTI...wish I could take back some of my dumb trades!
I was going to say that Gumby. Lings Bandits beat me in 2008. Very canny and made a late move that year when the other top teams were all arguing amongst themselves. If he were a Melbourne Cup racer, he'd be a Saintly or Makybe Diva (if he wins again) I'd also say we should keep watching Buster Gonad (2009 winner) as Chris is going like a freight train after a few average weeks early in the year. Thanks TIB for the analysis. I think teams will solidify this week and next before the Round 19 vertical climb for teams with Goodes, Deledio, Newman and O'Keefe. Essendon fill-ins cop Collingwood which doesn't inspire confidence in their scoring potential.
Anyone giving "Don't Do...Think!" at P6 a chance? Has excellent back-up in Backline, Midfield with a 1 premium in the backline + Heppell, 1 premium in the midfield reserves with Jimmy Bartel + MPP LInk Mzungu can switch into there too, he has Petrie MPP in the ruck behind Cox & Goldstein. But when the Roos have the bye he'll be in trouble because he'll be missing Goldy + Droopy and Curnow at R4 unlikely to play. Probably will trade at that point i think if Curnow doesn't play and in the forwards he has Mzungu/Lynch for cover and MPP Link to mids which allows Pavlich to go forward who is currently in the midfield. Could challenge and hasn't got many mentions I don't think.
384th too far behind to take it out? Im averaging 2384 over past 8 weeks and have risen from 41K in that time. About 1000 points behind seems little far... Heres my team and ive made it so i have high quality coverage during each bye. B: Delidio, Gibbs, Goddard, Enright, Hurn, Duffield, Broughton (Suckling, Strauss, Cripps) C: Pendles, Murphy, Swan, Dal Santo, Hodge, Bartel (A.Swallow, Smith, Mzungu) R: Cox, McEvoy (Gorringe, Cordy) F: Pavlich, OKeefe, Fyfe, Franklin, Riewoldt, Gray, Yarran (Gilbert, Lynch, Richardson)
ITS your team is solid and the backups will keep you in good stead when bad things happen. To win you'd need your PODS like Duffield/Broughton/Bartel/McEvoy/Gray/Yarran to beat the opposition players by 115 ppg or get some good captains weekends like last one. Opp players likely to be: Scotland/Fisher/Ablett/Judd/Boyd/Goldstein/Goodes Work cut out. But top 100 is a very achievable goal, maybe even top 50 well managed.
ImTooSerious, Reckon you have a ripper team and could definitely give it a shake. Reckon you could strengthen your FWD's a bit as this is your weakest line with Gray and Yarran. Also not sure that Duffield will cut it. Like Hurn and Hodge as POD's though.
ImTooSerious Yeah you're going to need your Captain choices to be spot on every week and your back-up is awesome. Your PODs are in good form like Hurn, Broughton, Gray etc so i think they will help you catch up. I think you have a chance but I'm not sure for #1 possie, good luck though.
Alrighty, let’s fill in some of the requests: 16. Kings. Has Poopoo, Franklin and Hodge, no Ablett, and no apparent worries this week. 17. Stunts. Has Ablett and is a bit thin on the benches, but strong where it counts. Has Franklin and Richo. Watch this bloke, might surprise a few. 18. Bandits. Has Suckling, Poopoo and Toy. Has Ablett and Callinan. FWD has Franklin/Smith and Richo. Can he risk no bench cover? Team may be cursed by having Higgins (well, mine was!). 19. E South. Has Ablett and an interesting double punch of Boyd/Griffen. Cox/Smith weakens the side a bit, but very strong FWD. If Z. picks up, could easily go top 10. 20. Flick. Has Ablett, Callinan and Franklin/Smith, but well covered. Cox/Smith in the ruck. 117. Buster. A DEF to dream for, but Ablett, Hodge, Callinan and Irons in MID might raise some sweat this round. Cox/Smith. Franklin and McKernan FWD will limit his ability a bit to swing Krak/Mz into MID for cover. Some observations. Cox/Smith in ruck is fine if you are going for leagues, but in overall you are conceding 30+ points a round to McEvoy, Goldstein and Griffin while Smith continues to pump out 70s. Z. has been exceptional in his first year and has saved our bacon a few times, but you need better to stay in the chase. Was surprised to find a number of teams in the top 20 have players out of position (e.g. Gibbs in MID). While this might enhance MPP, looking closely it appears to be a permanent arrangement (e.g. Gibbs might be swapped for Goddard, but you still end up with a DEF in MID). Surely this is a weakness? When you could have Gibbs in DEF and an alternative like NDS or Hodge in MID, the points gain seems obvious. Maybe those who have this arrangement could give a good explanation for it, but the general view on TS seems to be, keep your Pavs and ROKs in FWD and have pure midfielders in MID. Captain choice. Even if GAJ plays, suspect it will be a brave coach who returns the cap. Most of the top teams have the usual suspects when it comes to alternatives. Swan/Pendles and Judd/Murphy. However, this round these four will be pitted against each other with every chance of cancelling out each other’s scores. Coaches will need to be clairvoyant to predict who will cop the hard tags. Carlton will be fired up and it could be a bit of an arm wrestle. So the door opens this round for the brave coach who is willing to risk the cap on someone like NDS. Boomer. If the chatter on TS is true and Harvey is out this round (or consider; North can’t make finals, so Boomer goes for early surgery) it has the potential for significant impact on the race. All of the top 5 sides have Harvey. Teams 6 to 14 do not. Then there is 15-17 who do and 18-20 who do not. Buster, Axe and Lethal do not have Boomer. It could be a significant out, given some are already thin with Franklin/Smith.
On Captains Choice, Sylvia might be a very interesting one. If I were Impromptu, Mr Selwood would be getting the armband. Thompson is one that is a decent option this week. You would expect 120s from him.