Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Carlton

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

 

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2012 List Analysis:

Carlton is a team that can win the Premiership in 2012.  There arent that many teams in the league who can do it.  I count 5 - all from last years top bunch, and yes even the NAB Cup wooden spooners can still rate a mention.

Why they do is quite simple.   They have a very strong list of excellent and very good players, spread across most areas of the ground.   They have depth which can be called upon (though at the moment not quite as good as some key finals rivals), and their high end quality, particularly in the midfield where the game is won and lost is strong.

But theres only so long the "well be coming round the mountain when we come" cuts ice before we want to see real progress.  Not beating Essendon in the finals progress, but an invitation to the penultimate dance.   They need at least a Preliminary Final to justify all those cold dark days of being fed manure by wooden-spoon toting rivals.   Yes, its been so long since Carlton was in a place where they could actually be justifiably arrogant.   However, what I see is they are actually coming this time.

Carltons list ranks a score of 46, with a depth of 23.   This places them 3rd in quality of best 22, and 4th in terms of depth.  The main weakness of the list is in the area of tall forwards.  Pity Kennedy is playing for the West Coast Eagles.   Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and West Coast hold much more of its Supercoach points forward of centre, and even though the Blues have a brilliant midfield, it can only cover the rebound deficiency of their forward division for so long.   Particularly when other teams like Hawthorn have perfected a model of getting the ball from defence and not giving you a chance to get it back before making you pay on the scoreboard.

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2011 Supercoach Statistics:

PPG Average: 1772 (Ranked 3)

DEF Average: 732 (1) - 41%
MID Average:  637 (6) - 36%
FWD Average: 264 (16) - 15%
RUC Average: 139 (8) -  8%

Just like Brisbane, Carltons problem is forward of centre.  I mentioned this earlier, and its the way it is.  The issue I see is by playing Yarran in defence, the Blues robbed Peter to pay Paul.  By taking Henderson and turning him into a KPD, which by the way, the Blues have more than one of, probably isnt the best way to resurrect a flagging forward division.   Im thinking the Blues are counting on their midfield moving from number 6 to top 3 this season, hoping their forward line will magically improve with Waite and a lumbering ruckman (Kreuzer/Hampson/Rowe), and bolstering their high walled defence to win games of footy come September.   Im not as convinced as Malthouse that solely a good defence is required to win flags though.  I think a good forward line, especially in Supercoach scoring terms, is just as vital.

2012 Fixture Analysis:

Fixture Analysis has been completed on 2011 Finishing Position (GWS is ranked 18)

Highlights:

- Carlton have a good run early, a very tough middle patch (fortuitously around the bye offering plenty of rest), followed by a steady but generally soft run home.
- I see the strategy of choice with Carlton players is get them as keepers.  And hope that you might be able to snag a nice cheap player at the end of your upgrade cycle (say Round 15 or so)
- Carlton has the bye in round 13.   Means yes another team with great defenders will be out of action when you need them in.

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Games have been grouped as the average finishing position of their opponents, sorted in a 5 match collection, apart from the first and last 4 games, which are listed to see which teams can really start and end the year with a bang.  Start represents the round number to begin the analysis, and stop means the round number to end.   If a team played GWS and Gold Coast, then their ranking for 2 games would be 17.5 rounded to 18.   If a team played Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and WCE in a run of 5 games, the ranking for these would be 3 (the average finishing position of last years top 5).   Anything close to 18 is good.  Anything close to 3 (or even 1 or 2 in the first 4 or last 4 rounds) is bad.

Purple: Less than 5 games to assess
Yellow: Key trading period
Green: Easy run of matches
Red: Difficult run of matches
Orange: Medium difficulty run of matches

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Carltons Top 5 Players for your Supercoach Team:

1 - Marc Murphy (MID) - He is becoming the most important player at Carlton.  A better standard deviation than Judd means that he is more consistent in scoring points, even though hes not the perfect captain material for the risk taker.

2 - Heath Scotland (DEF-MID) - The traitor is still a very fine footballer.  He has a multi position, which could prove handy later in the year, and I think he provides good solid early scoring in defence, something that even though the Round 13 bye lads are all stuck together, you still need to invest and get them into your team.

3 - Chris Judd (MID) - Dont underestimate a champion.  Particularly when hes been robbed (supposedly) of a Brownlow Medal, and the chance to be seen as a modern-day Bunton.

4 - Chris Yarran (DEF) - Should be even better at mopping up in defence having had more practice over the off-season.  Look for his numbers to again rise.

5 - Bryce Gibbs (MID) - This is the year that he needs to throw off the plan of being a tagger and get his own productive ball in big matches.   Time for him to step up as a leader, or otherwise, Carlton might see 5th as their natural resting place, just as Richmond see 9th as their birthright.

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