Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Collingwood

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

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2012 List Analysis:

So near, but yet so far.   Winning a premiership is difficult, but following it up the next season is nigh on impossible.  Every other team comes at you, rule and game plan changes target your dominance, and complacency settles in like an unwanted bad smell.   This is what confronted Collingwood in 2011, and they were not able to clear the minds of distractions enough to get the job done when it counted.   Geelong was just too good when it counted.

However, a new season gives fresh opportunity to a team that would consider only one premiership from this generation of players to be an under-achievement.  There is a new coach, Nathan Buckley, with a new fresh bunch of assistant coaches, after the main bulk of Malthouse assistants find themselves in the senior coaching ranks.  It means there will likely be changes, but Collingwood will be trying to do this without throwing the baby with the bathwater.   Its an immensely tough job for the new coach, I believe.

Collingwood has a strong list in all areas, with a small query on the ruck division, and possibly on backline talent (as distinct from the ability to shut-down an opposition team).   Even though the depth looks a little thin in defence, there are players who do a significant role, such as Tarrant, Goldsack and N Brown, who are listed outside the main 22 on the list analysis, which means there are a few players to spare when the whips get cracking.  This is important, as it is in depth where the Magpies and Cats will be tested by the Hawks in 2011, having been overtaken over the off-season.

Collingwoods list ranks a score of 48, with a depth of 22.   This places them 2nd in quality of best 22, and 6th in terms of depth.  As outlined earlier, the Pies will need to build depth in season 2012 in order to contest again.   This will probably mean games to players who are not ready for senior football (Yagmoor, Clarke, Elliott, Paine, Young), will probably cost wins, meaning a top 2 finish at the end of the H&amp;A will be difficult to achieve.  However, the necessary blooding of youthwill offer an interesting opportunity for someone willing to take a risk in the Supercoach buying bazaar, and above all, a chance for players to become the Blair of 2010, or the Krakouer of 2011.

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2011 Supercoach Statistics:

PPG Average: 1780 (Ranked 2)

DEF Average: 488 (11) - 27%
MID Average:  765 (2) - 43%
FWD Average: 426 (7) - 24%
RUC Average: 101 (14) -  6%

Collingwood enjoyed a brilliant Supercoach scoring season in 2011, with almost the most points.   It was the problems in the ruck, caused by the serious injury issues from Darren Jolly, that caused the most impact for the season.   The forward division did well, but did not take a large component of the points pie, as much was already eaten up by the top 3 - Pendlebury, Swan and Thomas.  I cannot see this midfield dominance of the points mix changing in 2012.   This will mean, once again, not too many points available for Collingwood defenders.   Is this reason enough to ignore Heath Shaw, or will his recent rise to playing more often on a wing be enough for him to be considered?  I think the Pies bye will be the crucial factor in the Shaw selection.  And with that, lets look at the Pies fixture.

2012 Fixture Analysis:

Fixture Analysis has been completed on 2011 Finishing Position (GWS is ranked 18)

Highlights:

- Collingwood has a tough run in 2012, with return games against Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast and Carlton (among others)
- That said, there is a nice run up to the byes, and though the run home is challenging, there are enough easier matches to ensure that its more middling than horrendous.
- Collingwood has the bye in round 12.   Shared with teams with lots of good forwards.
- So the advice is - get on the premium or elite players early, and ride them all the way home.  I cant see a brilliant window for upgrades to Pies players.

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Games have been grouped as the average finishing position of their opponents, sorted in a 5 match collection, apart from the first and last 4 games, which are listed to see which teams can really start and end the year with a bang.  Start represents the round number to begin the analysis, and stop means the round number to end.   If a team played GWS and Gold Coast, then their ranking for 2 games would be 17.5 rounded to 18.   If a team played Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and WCE in a run of 5 games, the ranking for these would be 3 (the average finishing position of last years top 5).   Anything close to 18 is good.  Anything close to 3 (or even 1 or 2 in the first 4 or last 4 rounds) is bad.

Purple: Less than 5 games to assess
Yellow: Key trading period
Green: Easy run of matches
Red: Difficult run of matches
Orange: Medium difficulty run of matches

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Collingwoods Top 5 Players for your Supercoach Team:

1 - Scott Pendlebury (MID) - The number one player in Supercoach in 2011, because he is clean, team oriented, durable and gets the job done when the match is won.  Hes not the perfect captain material, as he is more consistent than able to produce a massive match, and he does come with a big sting in the hip pocket.   But hes the best there is, and you avoid having him in your team at your peril.

2 - Dane Swan (MID) - The reigning Brownlow Medallist ended 2011 with a bang.  He racks up getting the ball, has improved his ability to hit the scoreboard over the years, and the sub rule means he remains on the ground more often.  It adds up to an impressive package.  It makes sense to have one of Pendlebury and Swan in your starting squad, and both have their pros and cons.

3 - Heath Shaw (DEF) - Yes he is a frustratingly inconsistent player in Supercoach.  Yes he gets injured with back-related hamstrings too often.   But hes the big option for those who dont want their entire backline premium ranks missing in Round13.  His midfield roles have been more consistent coming off a wing, and will probably get a few cheap points from taking back the kick-in duties from Leon Davis.

4 - Dayne Beams (FWD-MID) - At the moment the main caveat I have on this selection is his preseason fitness.  Its always a danger picking players who are not fit over the start of the year, and Beams injury worries in the past few seasons make him a risky pickup.   However, hes clearly the 4th best scoring midfielder in the Collingwood rotation (Ball is simply a junkyard stopper), and being able to put into the forward line a player who can average 100 points is a rare luxury.  The talk is Sidebottom from many in the SuperCoach ranks, but it ignores a player who is desperate to show his best when it counts most.   Watch his fitness in the next two weeks, and please consider.

5 - Peter Yagmoor (DEF) - Its hard to pick Collingwood Supercoach players, because they are often either overpriced, or midpriced.   This counts out many who want a GNR strategy but dont want to overdo it on the very top line.  So therefore at Collingwood, you need to find the player who might break into the starting lineup and be a starter.   Many have identified Clarke to be this years Andrew Krakouer - cheap and ready to start.  The problem I see is Clarke appears to need a few weeks in the VFL to crack off some rust.   This opens a starting spot up for Yagmoor for long enough for him to get points on the board, then be upgraded.
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