Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Essendon

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

 

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2012 List Analysis:

Necessity breeds invention, and in making the 8 last season, Essendon was nothing if not inventive in getting there.  Losing Gumbleton, Prismall, Winderlich and Lovett-Murray to big injuries meant other alternatives had to be found.

Heppell, Hibberd, Crameri - these names shone through as the Bombers added a core to the top quality of Watson.   It did enough to get Essendon through a difficult period midseason to be able to regroup and contest finals.

The Bombers list, therefore, is full of decent players across the board, everywhere except Elite.  And thats the reason why Essendon will struggle to get anywhere better than 6th this season.  The depth has been built, the base is there, but now is the time for a host of players to pick up and get to the peak of their talents.   No more underachieving from Stanton, Myers, Monfries, Hurley and Ryder.   And further growth needed from Heppell, Zaharakis, Hocking and Howlett.

Essendons best 22 ranks a score of 41 and have depth of 25 players.  This ranks their best 22 in 10th, but they have the 2nd best depth.  If we see growth in the natural curve from the talented individuals at Windy Hill, I can see the Bombers going late in the season and having finals success.   If we dont, it will end up being enough of a battle just to stay in the 8.  The pack behind them are chasing hard, and they have elite players at their disposal.

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2011 Supercoach Statistics:

PPG Average: 1661 (Ranked 8 )

DEF Average: 358 (16) - 22%
MID Average:  650 (4) - 39%
FWD Average: 452 (4) - 27%
RUC Average: 202 (2) -  12%

Essendon has a ruck division to die for.   Their midfield has shown great signs of life in the past few years with Watson really stepping up into the Premium ranks, bordering on elite if his fitness can hold up.  Crameri and Hurley offer something very special in the forward line, along with Zaharakis.  Where Essendon struggled most in 2011 was in points from their defence.  It appeared that when the "forward press" broke down, the Bombers were vulnerable, and more reinforcements than even the precocious Dyson Heppell are necessary to lift this team to the next level.

2012 Fixture Analysis:

Fixture Analysis has been completed on 2011 Finishing Position (GWS is ranked 18)

Highlights:

- Essendon has a great lead into the season and should start the year strong.
- I cant see too many bargains around the midyear for the Essendon team as their run only seems to stiffen in the last few matches.
- Essendon have the bye in Round 12
- My advice with Bombers is take advantage of their early decent run.  Get the premiums in there from the beginning and hold to the end.

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Games have been grouped as the average finishing position of their opponents, sorted in a 5 match collection, apart from the first and last 4 games, which are listed to see which teams can really start and end the year with a bang.  Start represents the round number to begin the analysis, and stop means the round number to end.   If a team played GWS and Gold Coast, then their ranking for 2 games would be 17.5 rounded to 18.   If a team played Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and WCE in a run of 5 games, the ranking for these would be 3 (the average finishing position of last years top 5).   Anything close to 18 is good.  Anything close to 3 (or even 1 or 2 in the first 4 or last 4 rounds) is bad.

Purple: Less than 5 games to assess
Yellow: Key trading period
Green: Easy run of matches
Red: Difficult run of matches
Orange: Medium difficulty run of matches

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Essendons Top 5 Players for your Supercoach Team:

1 - Jobe Watson (MID) - Premium priced, but borderline elite.  The Bombers have a good early run, so like last year, Jobe should start like a freight train.

2 - Dyson Heppell (DEF) - Im not predicting second year blues for this kid.  Hes something as Bruce would say "Special".  He is one of the non Round 13 defensive options you could insert into your team with confidence.

3 - David Zaharakis (FWD-MID) - Is one of the premium/midprice options for the forward line that needs to be considered.  Had a good finish to 2011, last 10 games averaging 99.

4 - Michael Hurley (FWD) - Its about time he became a great player.  Has all the tools, just needs to put it all together consistently.   Has been far more effective in wins rather than losses in 2011, so its all about contributing when the team is down, rather than just being a flat track bully.

5 - Jason Winderlich (FWD-MID) - At 302k, placed directly in the midprice zone is a player who when fit can certainly smash far higher.  Averaged 72 in completed matches last year, is priced at 55, and was certainly higher rated than this in previous seasons.  Averaged 87 in 2010, 97 in 2009.   All midprice selections are difficult to justify, but Winderlich might prove useful early, before being upgraded to a true premium in quick time.

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