Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Fremantle

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

 

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2012 List Analysis:

Fremantle is a very difficult team to assess for a range of reasons.

Their best is very good.  They have a collection of Elite players across the park.   They have an exciting crop of young players, and a seasoned veteran core.  They are now being coached by one of the leading strategists and motivators in the game, in Ross Lyon.  They have no excuses for mediocrity this season.

And yet thats what, for the most part, this team of young talent frustrated us all with once Mark Harvey took an aging list and in a few short moves gave the refreshment necessary.   The finals opportunity was granted in 2010, and they claimed a pretty decent scalp, that of the Hawks, to frank their ability.   What followed in 2011 was nothing short of a nightmare, with a morbid finish once top 4 was taken from the equation, everything dissolved, and the 8 was too much to ask for.

Of course, there were injuries to very important personnel.   Not content with losing Barlow for much of the year, Lady Luck took Sandilands and Mundy just when the team had some momentum.

So 2012 holds more questions than it does answers for Fremantle.  Will Ross Lyon turn them into a stingy defensive bunch of misers?  Most likely.  Will that mean more points in the backline, like there was at St Kilda (Goddard, Fisher, Gilbert all chomped on tasty points)?  Not certainly but quite possibly.   Will Pavlich become the teams Nick Riewoldt, or is he already?   Is he great at every level except the absolute pinnacle of the game?   All these questions will be answered this year.

Fremantles list rating is 43 and a depth of 21.  This ranks their list at 5th best in the competition, and the depth is 8th.  On any rating of the list and Ross Lyons ability to get the best out of it, they should play finals this season.  However, for mine, I see a year of transition not unlike St Kilda of 2007, where a reshaped game plan took a full half-year to learn, and that meant no finals action.

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2011 Supercoach Statistics:

PPG Average: 1619 (Ranked 11)

DEF Average: 623 (5) - 38%
MID Average:  386 (17) - 24%
FWD Average: 463 (3) - 29%
RUC Average: 147 (6) -  9%

Fremantle had the worst midfield in the competition from a Supercoach perspective in 2011.  Its not hard to see why.   Barlow and Mundy, the two shining lights were not there for a large amount of time, and two forwards in Pavlich and Fyfe did the heavy lifting, meaning the forwards score was in the very top echelon.   Knowing the way Ross Lyon coaches, look for the defence to shine again, or even improve, for the forwards to get a little worse, but the midfield to start to step up to what it is capable of.

2012 Fixture Analysis:

Fixture Analysis has been completed on 2011 Finishing Position (GWS is ranked 18)

Highlights:

- Fremantle have a challenging start to 2012, no getting around this.  If they can survive the early onslaught with a 50-50 record, it looks like the year could open up for them in the last half.
- Given the more difficult start, and the way things are going to ease off for the Dockers fixture wise, they may have some great upgrade options later in the year.
- Fremantle have the bye in Round 12, with a lot of other teams with good forwards.  Watch the player balance.
- My advice with the Dockers is to upgrade into their stars, rather than starting with too many.   One of their elite players is probably enough to start with.   Sandilands looks a perfect upgrade at mid season.

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Games have been grouped as the average finishing position of their opponents, sorted in a 5 match collection, apart from the first and last 4 games, which are listed to see which teams can really start and end the year with a bang.  Start represents the round number to begin the analysis, and stop means the round number to end.   If a team played GWS and Gold Coast, then their ranking for 2 games would be 17.5 rounded to 18.   If a team played Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and WCE in a run of 5 games, the ranking for these would be 3 (the average finishing position of last years top 5).   Anything close to 18 is good.  Anything close to 3 (or even 1 or 2 in the first 4 or last 4 rounds) is bad.

Purple: Less than 5 games to assess
Yellow: Key trading period
Green: Easy run of matches
Red: Difficult run of matches
Orange: Medium difficulty run of matches

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Fremantles Top 5 Players for your Supercoach Team:

1 - Nathan Fyfe (FWD-MID) - I have been a doubter all along, but lets face it, last year showed this kid is the real deal.  If he were at Essendon, they would be talking about the Second Coming.  Thats how good he is.  With the multi position a handy side benefit, ignore the niggling injury rumours and lock him into your forward division.

2 - Greg Broughton (DEF) - Ross Lyon will want his defence to stand up this year, and this guy is the general down there.  Sure, hes no Goddard, but as one of the options that doesnt have a Rd13 bye in the defensive zone, hes in a good battle with Heath Shaw for a starting spot in most lineups - maybe even alongside.

3 - Matthew Pavlich (FWD-MID) - Pavlich is a great player for the Dockers, and will remain so.  Im not sure how Ross Lyon will use him, whether he will flood an extra player back in defences and make it 7 on 5, therefore meaning Pavlich is forced to deal with the double or triple teams that so frustrated Nick Riewoldt last season.   The great news for Lyon is that if that occurs, Pavlich can always swing effortlessly into the middle.  Thats why hes a great Supercoach option, because hes never out of the game.

4 - Michael Barlow (MID) - Yes it goes against every "midprice is evil" bone in my body, but the question on everyones lips is "Was Barlow a flash in the pan, or the real deal?"  We will find out this season.

5 - Lee Spurr (DEF) - Yeah he is a mature aged recruit and not all of them succeed.   But given Fremantles, and Ross Lyons ability to turn manure into strawberry jam from late in the draft, we could see another wonder pick here.  Thing is, hes got some work to do to get a spot in the Fremantle defence.  Once there, though, some juicy points tend to await.

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