Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Geelong

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

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2012 List Analysis:

Geelong is the reigning premier.  That alone means that it deserves respect.  The fact that they won last season when they were universally written off means that the sense of self-belief within the Cats ranks will be overflowing.

But the job of winning back-to-back isnt easy.  Even the best team since the AFL has come into being (Cats won 3 of 5 seasons and an additional GF and PF) hasnt been able to win the double.   Sure the Lions did - going b-t-b-t-b - but they only beat a weakened Collingwood outfit twice for their last two.

Geelong will have to do it without their skipper and stopper, Cameron Ling, and their talisman, Brad Ottens.  Both will leave big holes, which really cant be filled.  Thing is, the Cats still have a fully intact defence, which helps when it includes Scarlett.  They have a brilliant forward division, who are able to move into the midfield and add a depth that is envious.  The real only area of concern is the ruck, which after enjoy a GF win thanks in part to the West-Ottens double team of Jolly, makes one think that they need to pluck another Podsiadly in the big fella Orren Stephenson.

Geelongs list rating is 42 and a depth of 20.  This ranks their list at 7th best in the competition, and the depth is 10th.  This in terms of peak ability is a surprise to me, and indicates that losing two key players will be a big struggle.  With Ling/Ottens the Cats would have been ranked =3rd with Carlton.  Depth is not a surprise though, and thats why Brad Scott has been talking up players like Stephenson, Guthrie, Hogan and Smedts.

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2011 Supercoach Statistics:

PPG Average: 1755 (Ranked 4)

DEF Average: 590 (6) - 34%
MID Average:  480 (16) - 27%
FWD Average: 562 (1) - 32%
RUC Average: 123 (10) -  7%

This is a huge surprise.  Geelong the 16th best midfield in terms of SuperCoach points!  I mean we know that Chapman and Johnson effectively play midfield, and Varcoe has been pushed forward, but still...Selwood, Bartel, Corey, Kelly...and 16th best!   It confirms what Ive said for a while.  If your team is strong up forward in Supercoach, you will win matches.  OR...does it mean that if you win matches, your forwards will benefit and score a lot of points?  A chicken and the egg argument here.

2012 Fixture Analysis:

Fixture Analysis has been completed on 2011 Finishing Position (GWS is ranked 18)

Highlights:

- Man, Geelong always gets just what they need in terms of the fixture.  Its almost as if Brian Cook has ordered it personally.
- Geelong has a nice and easy start to the year, and a difficult (but not impossible) finish.  But who cares when you already have top 4 sewn up with 5 games to go?
- Geelong have the bye in Round 12, with a lot of other teams with good forwards and midfielders.  Again player balance needs to be monitored, dont load up too much on Cats just because of the easy start to the year.
- My advice with Geelong is to get as many players in as you can manage around the bye.  Consider players on the fringe, because the Cats need to improve their depth.   In your thinking needs to be players like Selwood, because the points from Ling and Ottens need to be shared around; most likely lapped up by the Cats captain.

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Games have been grouped as the average finishing position of their opponents, sorted in a 5 match collection, apart from the first and last 4 games, which are listed to see which teams can really start and end the year with a bang.  Start represents the round number to begin the analysis, and stop means the round number to end.   If a team played GWS and Gold Coast, then their ranking for 2 games would be 17.5 rounded to 18.   If a team played Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and WCE in a run of 5 games, the ranking for these would be 3 (the average finishing position of last years top 5).   Anything close to 18 is good.  Anything close to 3 (or even 1 or 2 in the first 4 or last 4 rounds) is bad.

Purple: Less than 5 games to assess
Yellow: Key trading period
Green: Easy run of matches
Red: Difficult run of matches
Orange: Medium difficulty run of matches

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Geelongs Top 5 Players for your Supercoach Team:

1 - Joel Selwood (MID) - Ive had an in and out approach with him in my team for this year.  Theres certainly reason to have him in from the start as an elite mid priced as a premium.   If he doesnt run into Farren Ray or Brent Guerra again, its almost a fait accompli.  The captaincy will sit well on his shoulders.  Might be time to lock him in.

2 -  Corey Enright (DEF) - A great reliable defender over the years, this guy just keeps doing the business.  Even though he occasionally has dropped a 50 or 60, he generally makes up for it in the 3 game bubble with a 130 that swings the match his teams way.  A good defender with a bye outside R13 is something that places him well as either a starter, or an upgrade.

3 - Jimmy Bartel (MID) - With no Ling, Bartel once again probably steps up into the midfield.  Hes shown just how good he is by earning a Norm Smith Medal and a Brownlow.  Pretty much theres nothing he cant do, except for being a top shelf Supercoach player.  Or can he?  He was the fantastic in 2008...

4 - Orren Stephenson (RUC) - Hes been a lock for so long, but now we see Relton Redden and Giles starting to squeeze him out.  Surely a few average NAB Cup games wont put the big O on the chopping block.  I think it will just mean he moves to a solid R4 in a lot of 1-0-3 combinations.

5 - Simon Hogan (MID) - From depression to first 22 of the reigning premiers.  This brilliant comeback appears only a few weeks off being reality.  Priced a bit over a normal midfielder, its a difficult decision to put him ahead of Smedts, but I think his job security is better.  And whats the point of a cow that never moos?

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