Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Hawthorn

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

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2012 List Analysis:

Hawthorns injury issues last year comes with a lovely little swing in the tail.  In the space of a season, they were able to create the most enviable depth in the competition.   Players like Savage, Smith and Breust really added verve and dash to a side that didnt need it, but appreciated it anyway.   Last season they werent able to crack the top 2 teams, but they pretty much smashed the rest of the comp.   This year its all about building up to winning those massive games against the Pies and Cats.

The only question mark is in the ruck.   And the injury to Bailey hurts at that weak underbelly.  Missing out on Jolly in the drafting at start of 2010 season is proving to be highly costly.

Hawthorns rating is 50 and a depth of 27.   This is number one in both areas.  And thats why Hawthorn have every right to be flag favourites as the year begins.  Each other team, even the Cats and Pies are playing list catchup.<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif" alt="" />

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2011 Supercoach Statistics:

PPG Average: 1799 (Ranked 1)

DEF Average: 662 (3) - 37%
MID Average:  649 (5) - 36%
FWD Average: 427 (6) - 24%
RUC Average: 61 (16) -  3%

The Hawks are the Supercoach specialists.  They boast players who can score in gutsy defeats, and go HUGE in big wins.   Their backline possession game gets a lot of points to defenders even when the Hawks win, which is a big difference between them and the Cats/Pies.  The ruck average though...well thats pretty laughable.  (Admittedly I considered Roughead a forward...)   Its interesting that their ruck average was higher than Port Adelaides, so thats why the Renouf trade was undertaken.

2012 Fixture Analysis:

Fixture Analysis has been completed on 2011 Finishing Position (GWS is ranked 18)

Highlights:

- Hawthorn have a horror start.  Bang bang, Pies and Cats.   It then really softens up at the middle of the year, before a challenging finish.
- This is why some are saying dont jump into Buddy Franklin to start the year, pick him up on the cheap later.   Interesting strategy.
- Hawthorns bye is in round 13.  Inconvenient given they have very handy defenders in Suckling and Birchall (and R13 already have heaps of good defensive options)
- My thought is to think about Hawthorn as the team to upgrade into.  Start lean, end with at least 3 of them, maybe 4.

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Games have been grouped as the average finishing position of their opponents, sorted in a 5 match collection, apart from the first and last 4 games, which are listed to see which teams can really start and end the year with a bang.  Start represents the round number to begin the analysis, and stop means the round number to end.   If a team played GWS and Gold Coast, then their ranking for 2 games would be 17.5 rounded to 18.   If a team played Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and WCE in a run of 5 games, the ranking for these would be 3 (the average finishing position of last years top 5).   Anything close to 18 is good.  Anything close to 3 (or even 1 or 2 in the first 4 or last 4 rounds) is bad.

Purple: Less than 5 games to assess
Yellow: Key trading period
Green: Easy run of matches
Red: Difficult run of matches
Orange: Medium difficulty run of matches

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Hawthorns Top 5 Players for your Supercoach Team:

1 - Grant Birchall (DEF) - Has a solid ability to score.  The Hawks chip around their defence.  Hawthorn has a tough start to the year, but Birchall should hold his value.

2 - Lance Franklin (FWD) - A tough start to the year for Hawthorn, but Franklin does so well against all opponents.   It would be a brave move not to start with him, and try to get him in upgrade land.  I think he might be untouchable price wise heading into round 7.

3 - Luke Hodge (MID) - A ripping player who goes high and low.  I think hed be a great player to have in the team in the middle of the year; he could be a  priceless POD during this section.  Possible elite player at premium prices.

4 - Cyril Rioli (FWD) - Another elite at a premium price.  Just needs to get fit and stay fit, because we all know his ability is something SPECIAL.  Or should I say DELICIOUS?

5 - David Hale (RUC-FWD) - After Baileys injury, even though Hale is midpriced, he might score (at least until upgrade time) enough points to allow a fairly easy ruck upgrade in mid season.  Please consider.

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