Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - North Melbourne

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

 

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2012 List Analysis:

North Melbourne are a very well balanced list, and it is no surprise that their coach is expecting them to make the 8 this season.  They have a decent draw, a maturity about their list that has raised a level of expectancy, and the destiny truly is in their hands in 2012.

However, again I see the players here, and I have to admit, I think that they are Premiers Lite.   Just like their off-field setup with Eugene Arocca appears to try to punch outside their weight division, so is their on-field team.   To feature in September, the Kangaroos need to do something about so many underachieving players in the LowerMid section.  Improve enough of them into either Midprice or UpperMid, and we could be seeing a team that is able to beat Top 4 opponents on occasion.

North Melbournes list rating is 37 and they have a depth of 17.   This places them 12th for their best 22, and 14th in terms of depth.   Yet many pundits are placing North close to the 8.   It is clear that the young players should improve, building both depth and capacity.  Four players making the small step from LowerMid to Midprice would be enough for their list development to rival Essendons.   That should be the target for 2012.
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2011 Supercoach Statistics:

PPG Average: 1641 (Ranked 9)

DEF Average: 496 (10) - 30%
MID Average:  586 (10) - 36%
FWD Average: 446 (5) - 27%
RUC Average: 112 (13) -  7%

It is very surprising that the one area that North was well below average in the statistics is in the Ruck Average scores for the season, considering they have Goldstein and McIntosh, what many would suggest is the 2nd best ruck duo behind Cox-Naitanui.   However, McIntosh was injured all season, and Goldstein took a while to get motoring.   The Kangaroos do have a forward division that can score points.  This is a very important dynamic, as we have found that teams with strong forward averages tend to indicate on-field success.

2012 Fixture Analysis:

Fixture Analysis has been completed on 2011 Finishing Position (GWS is ranked 18)

Highlights:

- Face it, North have a brilliant draw.  Not one sequence of 5 games has an average difficulty of less than 8
- Therefore the fact that they have been found wanting against the best opposition wont be too much of a factor this year.
- North has the bye in Round 11
- From a Supercoach perspective it would appear the North players would hold their value better than other sides due to regular winnable matches.

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Games have been grouped as the average finishing position of their opponents, sorted in a 5 match collection, apart from the first and last 4 games, which are listed to see which teams can really start and end the year with a bang.  Start represents the round number to begin the analysis, and stop means the round number to end.   If a team played GWS and Gold Coast, then their ranking for 2 games would be 17.5 rounded to 18.   If a team played Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and WCE in a run of 5 games, the ranking for these would be 3 (the average finishing position of last years top 5).   Anything close to 18 is good.  Anything close to 3 (or even 1 or 2 in the first 4 or last 4 rounds) is bad.

Purple: Less than 5 games to assess
Yellow: Key trading period
Green: Easy run of matches
Red: Difficult run of matches
Orange: Medium difficulty run of matches

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North Melbournes Top 5 Players for your Supercoach Team:

1 - Andrew Swallow (MID) - The Captain, is well placed for either initial selection or an upgrade in the bye periods given Norths bye comes first.  As a contested ball winner, and a smooth operator, Swallow has all the makings of a future SuperCoach Elite player.

2 - Brent Harvey (FWD-MID) - So often maligned, this goalsneak has proved a brilliant player for many years.  Unlike Milne, Harvey has the ability to play midfield, and this versatility has seen him churn out 323 games.  A star who may even play better without the responsibility of captaincy.  Id think he will be a POD forward, as he seems to be most years.  I generally avoid fossils, but maybe one could class Boomer as an ornament instead.

3 - Hamish McIntosh (RUC) - He is the nicely priced option of the two rucks at North, and would still consider himself to be the number one ruckman.  Im not sure the points are there for two quality rucks, but McIntosh has shown ability when he goes forward - a bit like Petrie - and could be a useful midprice ruckman to upgrade.

4 - Drew Petrie (FWD) - Only a forward classification this season, which is a shame.  Seems to go very big then quiet, which can make him frustrating, but in the end he was classified as a Premium forward, and you might get him after a few quiet games at a midprice.

5 - Sam Gibson (MID) - The skipper of Box Hill last year finds himself on Norths rookie list.  He is that ready-made rookie in Curnow style who could do enough in early matches to get the value up, then he gets traded.

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