Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Richmond

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

 

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2012 List Analysis:

Richmonds list is better than people give credit for.  They have milked good draft selections from a range of drafts, and though they missed Franklin and Roughead, they did get the midfield selections spot on (well Tambling excluded).  They have good players on a range of lines, and just need a bit more polish to add to a natural aggression to actually challenge for a finals berth.

If they can hold it together through a baptism of fire early (basically playing the entire 2011 top 8 in the first 10 games) and turn 5-5 or even 4-6, they can get to the finals action they have been craving for so long.  Im not convinced they will quite make it, due to the fixture, and think 9th is as good as they can ask for this year, with 10-12 more realistic.   That said, in a team on the breakout, realistic goes out the window.

Richmonds list rating is 42 and they have a depth of 19   This places them 7th for their best 22, and 13th in terms of depth.   So its clear that Richmond have the cattle to really shake things up this season, and the canny selections of Ellis and Morris should improve their defensive depth.   They do appear to require a third tall defender, and a third tall forward, and are grooming young players in the roles.   At end of 2012 I can see them having played better than sides that finish above them and in the 8, but due to the difficult fixturing at the start of the season, they will once again be spectators in September.

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2011 Supercoach Statistics:

PPG Average: 1615 (Ranked 12)

DEF Average: 501 (9) - 31%
MID Average:  569 (11) - 34%
FWD Average: 405 (9) - 25%
RUC Average: 140 (7) -  9%

Richmond as said earlier are building solidly across all lines.  They need to keep doing this by having some of their recently drafted players performing important assisting roles to the genuine stars who can win matches.  Id even include players like Nahas and King as excitable types who can inspire a team onwards.

2012 Fixture Analysis:

Fixture Analysis has been completed on 2011 Finishing Position (GWS is ranked 18)

Highlights:

- Richmond have a rocky start.  But my goodness what a delicious run after about Round 9
- Richmond has the bye in Round 13, which is annoying as lots of good defenders have the bye in that round - Deledio and Newman are the Tigers to watch out for.
- From a Supercoach perspective, I see a player like Deledio/Newman  being great early due to the ball mainly being in defence, but then Martin and Cotchin are great upgrade targets for the run home.  They could average 115 from the half.

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Games have been grouped as the average finishing position of their opponents, sorted in a 5 match collection, apart from the first and last 4 games, which are listed to see which teams can really start and end the year with a bang.  Start represents the round number to begin the analysis, and stop means the round number to end.   If a team played GWS and Gold Coast, then their ranking for 2 games would be 17.5 rounded to 18.   If a team played Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and WCE in a run of 5 games, the ranking for these would be 3 (the average finishing position of last years top 5).   Anything close to 18 is good.  Anything close to 3 (or even 1 or 2 in the first 4 or last 4 rounds) is bad.

Purple: Less than 5 games to assess
Yellow: Key trading period
Green: Easy run of matches
Red: Difficult run of matches
Orange: Medium difficulty run of matches

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Richmonds Top 5 Players for your Supercoach Team:

1 - Brett Deledio (DEF-MID) - I am a fan of Deledio.  Hes consistent, he does the job week-in, week-out, has MPP, and can occasionally pump out a huge game.  With the Tigers challenging early run, his form is crucial to the success of the Tigers.  He averaged 110 in wins and 98 in losses last year and is priced at 105, so one might think hes slightly overpriced.   Ignore at your peril.

2 - Brandon Ellis (DEF) - A quality draft pick, which has been the norm at Richmond for the past few drafts.   Should really excel in the team this year and is clean which fits Hardwicks brief to the letter.

3 - Bachar Houli (DEF) - Is in the year that he should rise up and really show his worth to the league.  A great rebounder of half-back, and I think 2 defenders from Richmond is almost a necessity this year - one quality (Deledio/Newman/Houli) and one up-and-coming (Ellis/Morris).

4 - Steven Morris (DEF)  - A mature aged recruit who is hard at it, and looks likely to get game time.  Not sure about his ability to score heavily but should be a dependable back selection.

5 - Dustin Martin (FWD-MID) - He is expected to rise to another level this year.   Personally Im not sure this year will be his breakout year where he dominates the competition, however I can see him as a very realistic target to bring into the squad as an upgrade.  I think starting with him holds the similar risk to Franklin of $ leakage.  Take this on if you have courage and faith in what the Tigers can serve up this season.

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