Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - St Kilda

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

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2012 List Analysis:

St Kildas list is WYSIWYG.   You know you will get a lot of quality in the older guys, and a bit of a patchwork quilt about the youth.

Its this factor that makes the Saints a hard team to judge this year.   Looking at their top end quality, there is reason to suggest that on their day they can beat any team in the competition.   The problem is that the best form isnt always there from each of these players for whatever reason, be it age or temperament, and the guys who have to patch the gaps just havent been good enough, an unfortunate side-effect of short-term drafting for a flag.

This season I see Watters working with what hes been comfortable with at Collingwood.  Relentless forward pressure.  Nothing new for the Saints, but at least his open and fresh approach will lift what has been an unfortunate burden on this club under Ross Lyon.  There will be less "us against them" attitude, and though it might hurt them in the short term, in the long run, their players will find turning up to work a lot more enjoyable, and I think that will actually translate to good results.

St Kildas list rating is 44 and a depth of 21.  The list rating is 4th in the league, and depth 8th.  By this measure, and because of a nice early run of matches to get their groove going, I see St Kilda making the 8 again this year.  That means 12-13 wins.   Unless they sort out their KPDs though, thats as far as the journey goes.<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif" alt="" />

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2011 Supercoach Statistics:

PPG Average: 1685 (Ranked 6)

DEF Average: 682 (2) - 40%
MID Average:  495 (15) - 29%
FWD Average: 411 (8) - 24%
RUC Average: 98 (15) -  6%

The Saints would know their strengths and weaknesses, and they arent hard to assess.  They need to get fresh blood into the midfield that can offer their guns Dal Santo and Montagna a chopout.  Hayes return will help, but given his age profile, its a short term fix.  Guys such as Ledger, Steven and Armitage need to take responsibility now for driving the club further.  In addition they will need to do more to support their lone ruck ranger McEvoy.  Stanley might get more of a run at doing this through the season.

2012 Fixture Analysis:

Fixture Analysis has been completed on 2011 Finishing Position (GWS is ranked 18)

Highlights:

- St Kilda starts in golden fashion, before some tough games leading into trade period, but then a nice soft underbelly in the middle of the season.
- Their run home is challenging, but their difficult games are spread out and can be mapped out.
- If you are keen on a Saints premium, get them early and ride the wave at the start of the year.   Sure you might get one at mid season for a reasonable price, but the points missed will frustrate you.

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Games have been grouped as the average finishing position of their opponents, sorted in a 5 match collection, apart from the first and last 4 games, which are listed to see which teams can really start and end the year with a bang.  Start represents the round number to begin the analysis, and stop means the round number to end.   If a team played GWS and Gold Coast, then their ranking for 2 games would be 17.5 rounded to 18.   If a team played Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and WCE in a run of 5 games, the ranking for these would be 3 (the average finishing position of last years top 5).   Anything close to 18 is good.  Anything close to 3 (or even 1 or 2 in the first 4 or last 4 rounds) is bad.

Purple: Less than 5 games to assess
Yellow: Key trading period
Green: Easy run of matches
Red: Difficult run of matches
Orange: Medium difficulty run of matches

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St Kildas Top 5 Players for your Supercoach Team:

1 - Nick Dal Santo (MID) - I hope people read the RMT thread and not this one and ignore him.  He took a step up last year after a horrible preseason, and his joking about the wiener incident show hes matured greatly.  Look for one of the serial up-down players to start the year with a bang.

2 - Nick Riewoldt (FWD) - Well why not two Nicks?  Riewoldt could not have hard a harder run in2011 after a harrowing GF &amp; Replay, and then the Dickileaks incidents.  Without the requirement to be the teams saviour every week, Nick will be one of the group under Watters, and will benefit from it.  I think Watters will be more amenable to changing Riewoldts role in a game to get him into the play (pinch hit ruck, defence etc) to stop him showing Richo like tendencies when the ball is hardly delivered to his liking.   I see Riewoldt as capable of another Elite season as a forward (lets face it last year is the first in ages he didnt do that) and is priced right at the low end of Premium.

3 - Tom Ledger (MID) - Starred in the NAB Cup last year and people jumped on only to be disappointed when Lyon left him on the shelf.  He should get more of a go this year, though the vest might prove his friend for the first few matches.

4 - Jamie Cripps (FWD) - Can play, was unfortunate with injury last year but can find the goals.  Will get more job security than Milera and Saad alongside Milne and Schneider.  It promises to be an interesting mix up forward for the Saints in 2012.

5 - Brendon Goddard (DEF-MID) - People jumping off Goddard, Fisher, Dal Santo and Riewoldt might have egg on their faces after the early rounds playing Port, Gold Coast, Dogs, Freo (home v Lyon) and Melbourne.  These core experienced players need to fire up to propel the Saints into September, and a strong start is vital.

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