Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Sydney

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

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2012 List Analysis:

Leading up to playing one of the most important matches the code has experienced in over 100 seasons, the Sydney Swans have remarkably gone under the radar again.  They are well coached, have a great bunch of young players ready to take the next step through probably the 2nd best drafting team in the business (after Geelong, on par with Collingwood), and must be itching to get stuck into their cross-town rivals at ANZ Stadium this Saturday night.   They will flog them the first time to show who is boss.   Not so sure in 3 years time, but given both sides I see as being on the up, we could see some classic AFL matches in Sydney for years to come.  Music to the ears of all ex-pat Victorians living as "Yankees".

Sydney will need to change their style to incorporate more of their younger players this season, and it may come at the expense of victories and SuperCoach points, but it is essential that they find out the true potential of players such as Parker, Gordon, Rohan and Dennis-Lane before other teams poach them offering game time.

Sydneys list rating is 42 and they have a depth of 20   This places them 7th for their best 22, and 10th in terms of depth.   It means they are about on par with Richmond as a list goes.  What is unseen in all these ratings is the list of players ready to go to the next level, and also the importance of a winning culture.  Sydney has this in bucketloads, Richmond is building their own foundations from scratch.

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2011 Supercoach Statistics:

PPG Average: 1670 (Ranked 7)

DEF Average: 656 (4) - 39%
MID Average:  548 (14) - 33%
FWD Average: 347 (12) - 21%
RUC Average: 119 (11) -  7%

To be a strong list, you need to have no weak links, where the Swans have had 3 over the 2011 season.  It seems strange that they were able to cover this and still make the finals, but their midfield cannot leave the defence to do the hard rebound work yet again, without consequences on the win-loss column.  The Ruck area is interesting, but its what happens when the eggs are in one basket.  It appears healthier to have two ruckmen who can do the job well, and more promotion of Seaby over Pyke appears inevitable.  Up forward, its time that Reid stood up on his own and became the tall forward they have sought since Hall smacked Staker.   This will release Goodes to be a midfielder running forward, where he is arguably one of the greatest players ever at this role.  And so inspirational.

2012 Fixture Analysis:

Fixture Analysis has been completed on 2011 Finishing Position (GWS is ranked 18)

Highlights:

- Sydney have a great start to the season.  Who wouldnt complain about getting GWS first up after seeing the annihilation Carlton gave Gold Coast?  But they also have non-finalists Freo, Port and North before the season hots up against Hawthorn, then another three easier games against Adelaide, Richmond and Melbourne (all non-finalists).
- They have a tough finish though.   Carlton, Collingwood, Dogs at Etihad, Hawthorn and Geelong.  Theyd want to be 13-5 running into Round 19 to have any home final aspirations.
- Sydney has the bye in Round 12, which is shared with other teams with good forward divisions.  Take care allocating premium roles.

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Games have been grouped as the average finishing position of their opponents, sorted in a 5 match collection, apart from the first and last 4 games, which are listed to see which teams can really start and end the year with a bang.  Start represents the round number to begin the analysis, and stop means the round number to end.   If a team played GWS and Gold Coast, then their ranking for 2 games would be 17.5 rounded to 18.   If a team played Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and WCE in a run of 5 games, the ranking for these would be 3 (the average finishing position of last years top 5).   Anything close to 18 is good.  Anything close to 3 (or even 1 or 2 in the first 4 or last 4 rounds) is bad.

Purple: Less than 5 games to assess
Yellow: Key trading period
Green: Easy run of matches
Red: Difficult run of matches
Orange: Medium difficulty run of matches

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Sydneys Top 5 Players for your Supercoach Team:

1 - Shane Mumford (RUC) - Appears well priced, and able to dominate stoppages, which is bread and butter at Sydney.  Strongly consider as the main ruck in a 103 or the second in a crushing 202.

2- Adam Goodes  (FWD-MID) - He may be a fossil, but Ive never seen anyone hit 300 games with so much in the tank.  At 31 he played every match last year, and at his scintillating best there is no one better to watch.  He could light things up early this season.

3 - Kieren Jack (MID) - Im putting him in because hes a midprice player everyone was all over last year, and he didnt deliver (as I predicted).  But now at a truly low price, and after learned more about his game, maybe he might be able to push back to premium.

4 - Luke Parker (MID) - He has been written up really strongly by Swans and though I fear another JPK repeat, it does appear at some stage he will become the next Jude Bolton.  Im thinking it will be a shared role for the next few seasons though.  If you want a midprice option, Spiderman is one to watch.

5 - Tommy Walsh (FWD) - I try to give some good value players to watch, and Walsh is one.  Might not get games early, but showed enough talent in the International Rules (what probably playing on Easton Wood and some other VFL stars) that he could do some damage this season.  If he gets a regular game, get on.  There is certainly a role available at Sydney that wasnt there at St Kilda.

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