Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Western Bulldogs

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

 

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2012 List Analysis:

Western Bulldogs went into the 2010 team as the premiership favourites.  They made regular Preliminary Finals.  They were a very respected team.   Unfortunately, they have slipped recently, and its not considered to be any chance at all of premiership success this season, nor are given a realistic chance of making the finals.

Im not sure where they are in the rebuild, but one thing I am certain of is that they will need to get Brian Lake (and another quality tall defender) up and firing.   And a tall forward stepping up will be very important.   Liam Jones, your time is now.

It appears McCartney is going to have a chip and charge game similar to Hawthorn used by their team.  All very well to go slowly into the forward line if you have Roughead, Franklin, Hale and Rioli.   Another thing altogether when you have Giansiracusa as your only premium forward, and his best football is behind him.  Im thinking it will take a few years for the McCartney game style to bed in successfully.

The Bulldogs list rating is 32 and they have a depth of 16.  This places them 14th for their best 22, and 17th in terms of depth.   This means that the pundits placement of the Dogs in the lower half of the ladder is bang on target in relation to the list.   The Dogs with little depth will be needing to blood youngsters.  This offers a likely opportunity for players such as Clay Smith, Zephaniah Skinner, Tory Dickson, and maybe a few others.

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2011 Supercoach Statistics:

PPG Average: 1597 (Ranked 13)

DEF Average: 379 (15) - 24%
MID Average:  707 (3) - 44%
FWD Average: 385 (11) - 24%
RUC Average: 127 (9) -  8%

The Western Bulldogs last year looked pretty decent in most areas of the ground, but the loss of Hall and Ward, plus Sam Reid (possible depth player) is going to hurt a team that is on the rebuild.  Or should we call it a "refresh"?   Again once again we see a team that is going to need to improve their defence rebound.  Its no surprise that a lot of players are thinking there are points there for the taking for 3 Doggie Defenders - Lake, Hargrave and Howard.  Minson might also be a strangely good option this year, given the need for him to take big slabs of game time as the tall kids develop.   In what could be a tough year to be a Bulldog fan, watching the young players which do have good talent will be a silver lining to accompany the cloud of regular defeats.

2012 Fixture Analysis:

Fixture Analysis has been completed on 2011 Finishing Position (GWS is ranked 18)

Highlights:

- The Western Bulldogs have a fairly middling draw.
- Its a little easier at the start than at the end, so if you want to put in a Dogs premium, its probably better to have them in from the start than try to bring them in later.
- The Dogs have the bye in Round 11.  Defenders arent generally that good quality in this round, so Lake and Hargrave are obvious options to get into a team.

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Games have been grouped as the average finishing position of their opponents, sorted in a 5 match collection, apart from the first and last 4 games, which are listed to see which teams can really start and end the year with a bang.  Start represents the round number to begin the analysis, and stop means the round number to end.   If a team played GWS and Gold Coast, then their ranking for 2 games would be 17.5 rounded to 18.   If a team played Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and WCE in a run of 5 games, the ranking for these would be 3 (the average finishing position of last years top 5).   Anything close to 18 is good.  Anything close to 3 (or even 1 or 2 in the first 4 or last 4 rounds) is bad.

Purple: Less than 5 games to assess
Yellow: Key trading period
Green: Easy run of matches
Red: Difficult run of matches
Orange: Medium difficulty run of matches

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Western Bulldogs Top 5 Players for your Supercoach Team:

1 - Brian Lake (DEF) - A premium player trapped in a web of injuries and depression last season.  If the new coach provides just the tonic for him to return to form, then you can get a quality player paying peanuts.

2 - Matthew Boyd (MID) - Once again, this guy is a great midfielder and is a leader of men.  Will get plenty of ball, and though he doesnt use it that well, the fact that he fights like a junkyard dog to get it every time will earn him good points.  The 3300 rule could be decent for him as well, because as we always say, the points have to go somewhere.

3 - Tory Dickson (FWD) - Even though there does appear to be too many midsized forwards at the Kennel, and not enough talls, this guy will provide useful depth, and allow players with more skill like Higgins to run more regularly through the midfield.  At rookie prices, hes worth considering in what is a fairly shallow forward rookie area this year.  Has played fairly well for the Bendigo Bombers, and "plays tall", which is important in the type of "Crameri" role he will need to play this year.

4 - Ryan Hargrave (DEF) - Is a chance to put some good football back together.  My thought is if you get him, dont hold him for any longer than you have to.  His injury worries have always been a concern, and Im not certain of his ability to produce premium form for much longer than a 5 week stretch.

5 - Clay Smith (MID) - Has big wraps.  Hes not super quick, but might be a good replacement for Callan Ward.  The Dogs need to continue to blood kids to build depth all over the park, so youd suggest Smith will join Wallis and Liberatore...as well as Cordy...in the 22.  Like old times really!

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