MPP cover scenario - Pav

Discussion in 'AFL' started by clackerz, Jun 24, 2011.

  1. clackerz

    clackerz Member

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    I originally posted this in the worng section....doh!

    Just want some thoughts on this scenario.
    My issue is Pav.
    Yes he's named, but there's a possibility he may not play.
    However with Buddy out, NRoo on the Bye and Pissoff not named I have no cover in the FWD.

    So I can do the following:
    use the MPP b/w Pav & Prestia
    Put Pav on the ground in the mids for Heppell - put Heppell on the pine.

    I can then either leave it at that, or swap Heppell with Hibberd and play Heppell in the Back and bench Hibberd.

    Issues - having Prestia, Lynch, Goodes, Green, JRoo, Darling, Mzungu in the fwds.

    Do I do the move, or take the risk?
     
  2. whips

    whips New Member

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    Interesting dilemma.
    Depends how aggressive you feel you need to be (league, overall, whatever).

    If I read your post correct, if Pav stays FWD:
    Pav 100 + Hepp/Hibb 80 = 180 if he plays.
    OR 80 if he doesn't.

    If swapping Pav to MIDs:
    Pav 100 + Prestia 50 = 150 if he plays.
    OR Prestia 50 + Hepp/Hibb 80 = 130 if he doesn't.

    I guess you've already done the maths.

    I don't think it's an issue that your FWDs might LOOK weak. It's a scoring issue over the whole team. Remove that 'issue' from the thought process.

    So you will either get 180, 150, 130 or 80 from the players involved.
    If you need a risk, take it.
    Whatever you do, don't beat yourself up on Monday. You can only make a decision in foresight and you've done your homework.
    Good luck!!
    PS: As a Bomber I reckon you'll know whether to take Heppell or Hibberd.
     
  3. DC

    DC Member

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    Pav will play :)
     
  4. whips

    whips New Member

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    Then keep him up FWD and blame DC if he doesn't. LOL

     
  5. The_Swert

    The_Swert Active Member

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    I have a similar scenario. Except I also have Bartel.

    Atm i have:
    MID: Pendlebury, Ablett, Swan, Swallow, Priddis, Bartel (Goddard, Mzungu, Jacobs)

    FWD: O'Keefe, Goodes, Rioli, Petrie, Lynch, Smith, Pavlich (Riewoldt, Franklin, Siposs)

    My options are:
    • A: Bartel onfield mid, Pav onfield fwd and Mzungu emerg mid
    • B: Bartel onfield mid, Pav emerg mid, Mzungu onfield fwd
    • C: Bartel emerg mid, Pav onfield mid, Mzungu onfield fwd
    • D: Bartel emerg mid, Pav onfield fwd, Mzungu onfield mid

    Then these options give diff results based on who plays:
    • 1: Both Bartel and Pav play
    • 2: Bartel plays, Pav doesn't
    • 3: Pav plays, Bartel doesn't
    • 4: Neither play

    Lets assume Bartel will score 110, Pavlich 100 and Mzungu 80

    • A1: 210, A2: 110, A3: 180, A4: 80
    • B1: 190, B2: 190, B3: 180, B4: 80
    • C1: 180, C2: 190, C3: 180, C4: 80
    • D1: 180, D2: 190, D3: 180, D4: 80

    So clearly it's between A and B depending on if Pav is likely to play.
     
  6. whips

    whips New Member

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    Love your work, Swert. Beautifully set up.
    Don't envy your choices though.

    FWIW, I trust DC's opinion above and will be placing my team for Pav to play. If he doesn't so be it!!
     
  7. TopHeavy

    TopHeavy Member

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    @ swert
    I reckon I'd have cover for Bartel over Pav as he seems more likely to be a late omission, but would want both on the field if they play, so i'd go with option a.

    @ clakerz
    Thanks for bringing this up, I've moved Pav into the mids where i have cover just in case he doesn't play.

     
  8. Fez

    Fez Moderator

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    Swerv go option A

    Clacker I had same problem but traded Siposs to didak to make sure had cover everywhere
     
  9. DC

    DC Member

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    Hahaha.. Its hope more than anything!!

    He Tweeted

    'Just jumped out of water at Swanny - bit chilly but very refreshing!! Pulled up well from training last night, as did others. Boys ready!!'
     
  10. DC

    DC Member

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    Also another thing I read 'Mark Harvey expects that Matthew Pavlich will play this weekend'

    Can only think positive? :)
     
  11. clackerz

    clackerz Member

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    Thanks guys.
    @ swert - option A seems the best IMO

    I'd like to think he'll play - but this is SC.....and these guys like to play mind games

    I'm only going for League and I've got a fairly easy game this week.
    But I said that last week and got smashed.....

    I'll have to weigh up the pros/cons
     
  12. Midge001

    Midge001 Member

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    @Swert...gotta go option A.
    Personally, I don't like the idea of Bartel or Pav as the emergency. Your dilemma is being unsure of who will play, so picking one 50/50 over another as an emergency is leaving way too much up to guess-work, and if they both play you'll hate yourself.
     
  13. The_Swert

    The_Swert Active Member

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    I'll probably hate myself if Pav pulls out and I'm left with a donut when I had a chance to cover him.

    Actually even if they both missed I could still avoid a donut using option B and having Jacobs as a mid emergency too. Although that would suck if only Bartel missed and I'd get the lower of Pavlich and Jacobs' scores.

    It seems more likely that Bartel might miss and that would have less effect on me with Mzungu and Jacobs both there to cover him.

    Option A seems ideal since both are likely to play. Option B covers all bases while only risking 30 odd points.
     
  14. The_Swert

    The_Swert Active Member

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    Well all my options were flawed since Mzungu didn't play :(

    I got a midfield donut since Mzungu failed to cover Bartel. Jacobs was not used as a 2nd mid emergency.
     
  15. Sainter

    Sainter New Member

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    Bad luck The_Swert, but there is no way of predicting what will happen in a week of footy. Pavlich didn't show any signs of injury 155 points. Also enjoyed Broughton's score of 145 odd. 1564 with Gibbs, Judd, Cox, Darling, StevieJ, Chapman, S.Thompson & B.Jacobs. 2300 on the cards if all get around/close to averages
     

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