Myth-busting? Do players actually score that highly against GCS?

Discussion in 'AFL' started by Mad_Mattigan, May 28, 2011.

  1. Mad_Mattigan

    Mad_Mattigan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    204
    Likes Received:
    0
    Been wondering something for a while regarding selection of captains against GCS and selecting players with an "easy" run in to the finals...

    I realise the ticker shows the suns has being "hot" in every position, but is that because everyone score 90-110, or someone bashing out a 150? Checking the scores each week, it seems that the team playing the Suns (except Port!) will have up to 12 players score 100-110, but not many score 135+.

    My assumption for this is that the game's over at quarter time and because there's lots of cheap possessions, but little contested ball against the 'kids'. The big scores, (possibly with the exception of ruckmen getting a bajillion hitouts against poor opposition -Coxy) always go to the players getting the contested ball, and earning their possessions. I'm thinking Judd/Selwood going head to head and then Judd doing it to Syd and Melb.

    This is purely observation based, with little in the way of data to back me up, but I'm putting it out there in the hope someone with better stat knowledge can back me up or shoot me down!

    Anyone?
     
  2. No better knowledge or stats but I've definitely noticed that too. Guns score better in tightly contested games so I don't tend to use the C against GCS now
     
  3. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    10,368
    Likes Received:
    5,177
    Would be interesting to get silverback onto this to see how many of suns opponents made it into the TOTR
     
  4. Mad_Mattigan

    Mad_Mattigan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    204
    Likes Received:
    0
    Well no real result from tonight's game...

    162 for SJ, but he did kick 7 and have 29 touches.
    Next highest was a Sun, (Brennan) against the Cats, in a losing side, so I think simply picking a Captain because they're playing the Suns might be a bit of a risk.
     
  5. Midge001

    Midge001 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    1
    Round 2: 13 100+ including 2 x 120s 2 x 130s
    Round 3: 10 100+ including 1 x 120s 2 x 130s
    Round 4: 10 100+ including 2 x 120s 1 x 150
    Round 5: 2 100+ including 1 x 120
    Round 6: 8 100+ including 1 x 120s 3 x 150s
    Round 7: 4 100+ including 1 x 120 1 x 130
    Round 8: 7 100+ including 2 x 120s 2 x 130s
    Round 10: 6 100+ including 2 x 130s 1 x 160

    Generally the premium players just do what they do. Selwood 136 was marginally better than his recent form. Watson 120. Scott Thompson 130 as other examples.
    The big scores tend to come from hit and miss players. Steve Johnson. Brent Stanton. Kyle Reimers-ok, so they also come from almost entirely 'miss' players.
     
  6. Mad_Mattigan

    Mad_Mattigan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    204
    Likes Received:
    0
    Excellent work Midge... I guess your premiums are "safe" bets to score their average, but not necessarily go huge?

    Would be interesting to see the same sort of rundown against a "tough" team like Carlton, Hawthorn or Essendon... That is to say, not top of the barrel, but not bottom either...
     
  7. Midge001

    Midge001 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    1
    Cheers. And yeah, going by that I'd say premiums are safe choices, but don't get caught up assuming they'll pump out a 150 against the boys in red. Having a quick look through Carlton, they average roughly 3 opponents scoring over 100 per game, they haven't leaked much at all this year SC style. Mumford's 159 was the biggest score, I think, with Fletcher's 136 in the draw the next best that I saw.
     
  8. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    10,368
    Likes Received:
    5,177
    Good stuff midge! How many of those 130+'s were over 150 or 140. Do you have a rough idea of the top of your head?
     
  9. Midge001

    Midge001 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    1
    There were only a couple above the 130-139 mark, 1 150 in round 4, 3 150s to Essendon in the round 6 mauling, and Stevie J's 160 just gone. If you have a close look I've got them listed seperately in there :)
     
  10. Lucas

    Lucas Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,974
    Likes Received:
    121
    I'm spewing Enright didn't play - he's the type that would have eaten up a lovely 150

    Still, WB at Skilled...he better be right.
     

Share This Page