In reviewing my Supercoach year last year I realise I missed some seemingly “obvious†picks; players that were SC guns prior to a drop in form on the previous year. Picking up some of these players were key to success last year, with most highly ranked teams having Hodge, Pavlich, Harvey and Gilbee from the start. So I made a list of players who had a drop of around 10+ points the previous year [2008] [2009] [2010] Hodge 118.4 91.4 116.5 (obviously everyone had him) Gilbee 97.6 85.4 93.9 Harvey 112.3 87.7 100.4 Cooney 106.9 91.2 99.0 Burgoyne 103.3 80.8 99.6 Franklin 107.0 87.9 107.5 Pavlich 110.5 99.6 99.3 (had a fantastic first half of the year, so you had to get him from the start) Thompson 102.3 94.9 98.1 Ball 99.6 86.1 89.5 Green 99.0 85.2 96.5 There's a strong trend for these players to increase their points back to at least partially where it was the year before. To be fair however, I should include those that didn’t follow this trend: Pratt 99.1 80.2 70.6 Carrazzo 97.4 85.2 78.3 Mattner 98.2 83.7 78.2 Black 106.8 96.1 93.5 N. Brown 101.3 92.2 80.5 There aren’t many, and all of these either had only one good year (2008) with average form before that, or had obvious issues such as age or injury. A fairly obvious way of finding value for people who know SC, but players like Pavlich, Harvey and Gilbee weren’t as popular as they probably should have been. So who would be the likely candidates for a similar rise in points this year? Here’s a list the players that fill the criteria: -scored “premium-worthy†points in 2009 -had a drop of somewhere around 10+ points in 2010 Montagna 125.2 114.8 Hayes 118.6 103.5 Bartel 108.9 102.1 Mitchell 108.5 98.9 Goodes 114.3 94.3 Sewell 111.2 92.7 O’Keefe 108.5 90.5 Corey 107.9 87.8 Davis 111.4 69.3 Waite 95.9 87.8 Newman 98.8 92.6 Some guys I excluded because I thought their 2009 score wasn’t quite high enough to be considered premium were Hargraves, Duffield, Hurn, Vince Some of these players have mentioned a bit, others haven’t so much. I’m not saying that all these players are going to have a huge rise in points, but I think they should at least be considered and provide a good starting point for finding value. Who in the list above would you consider for your team in 2011?
Great thread idea mate. It will be helpful to many. I think the interesting part is why these players had a drop in points. For example, players like Sewell and Mitchell suffered injuries during 2010, which obviously hindered their scoring. Compared to players like Montagna and Hayes, who seemed to just have not as good a year because their team went from going 20-2 to going 15-6-1. Note: Can't remember if Hayes/Montag had injuries, so that may have also contributed. Where Mitchell/Sewell will probably get back to their higher scoring, Hayes/Montag probably won't, unless Saint Kilda become the dominant team over the season again. Something i don't think will happen, imo. Once again though mate, great thread idea. It gives people something to think about.
I think Corey is the pick of the bunch, as long as he is at his fittest. Year after year around 107-108, and then 20 pints less last year. would be a great mid6
There is a school of thought that says St Kilda's stellar 2009 resulted in inflated scores for Montagna & Hayes. I tend to agree. I don't think they'll get back to 2009 levels but they'll still provide value. No for a starting spot but will consider for upgrades. Bartel is interesting - it's easy to forget he was once the highest scoring SC player in the competition. I think he got shuffled out of midfield rotations a bit last year. A new coach and new rules could see decent improvement. A definite maybe. I guess Corey is in a similar position; I'm not keen but he could surprise. No to Mitchell & Sewell. Scored better without Hodge in the guts, now with Burgoyne there too I'll steer clear. I like Goodes & O'Keefe but structurally may not have room for them Upgrade targets even though I might have to pay more. Davis... Once Bitten... needs to secure a spot first I guess. Waite maybe. Has a high ceiling and will improve - I hope he got the aggro out of his system last year. No for Newman - Dids will do me from the Tiges backs. One thing I'm trying to do this year is stick to a structure that I like. In the past I've jumped on board some band-wagons and thrown in some guys just because they represented value at the expense of the big picture. That said, it's easy to stick to your guns before a ball's been bounced.
O'Keefe and Goodes should improve again i think. As well as Montagna. I had Bartel last year and he was steady, I was hoping for more, I think he can improve also. Hes alot safer bet than Corey Another one is Porplyzia, he suffered with injury and form last year. But hes had a good preseason, and I consider him a walk up start in 2011 2008:86 2009:87 2010:71(improved later in the season) So he offers a bit of value for a fwd
I agree Wal, stick to the structures. Don't make last minute trades. On Montagna, seemed to be hit or miss last year, which lends itself to getting later in the year, but getting all the same. Like NDS and Hayes, they are bound to hit 500k at some stage. Just whether you have trades or $ at the time determines if you get them. Mitchell/Sewell are hard to justify if you have Hodge. I am astonished that Davis got such a high 2009 score. No wonder he was All-Australian, and all those Porplyzia whingers out there are judging current performance rather than for that year. On the Porpoise, I'd like to think he represents value, but with 86-87-71 in previous years, it's not sounding premium to me at all. I need to see 3 figures. Last year I had Bartel and he ended really a flanker who was struggling into the M6 role I had for him. He hit a few big scores, but struggled under 100 for a few also, and ended in the low 400s. 8 of the last 10 rounds sub 100...but that could have been due to the broken arm of course. Corey to me looked finished in the Prelim. I know it's hard to work out when father time catches up with you, and given a good preseason and new game plan he might have one more big premium year in him, but I have grave doubts. Selwood looks the A1 Geelong mid next year, but will cop the Ablett tag. Maybe that will mean more free kicks for the turtle, so more points. But he won't crack regular high scores unless he kicks more often.
Selwood is a tough one. On natural improvement, you expect him to be a top 3 scorer this year, and finish with a 125 average, but the Ablett leaving factor may sway that - which way? I don't know. He pretty much cops a tag week in week out anyway, so maybe he'll have more of the points pie with Ablett gone. Selwood is about as much of a mystery in 2011 as the whole Cats team. He has to be an early favourite for the brownlow though. Over the last 3 years, Selwood has picked up 24% of the "non-ablett" votes at Geelong. If the Cat's managed to finish top 4, he has to be a very strong chance.
To me the main problem with picking the players I listed is that most of them are midfielders. I could easily see Sewell, Hayes, Bartel or Corey improving 5-10 points, but that still might not get you your 115ppg you want for your M6. If there was one of those midfielders I would take a chance on it would probably be Bartel, due to his relative youth and high-scoring past. Whether he returns to those past scores probably depends on his role and such so I'll be looking out in the preseason. Montagna probably dosen't fit into the "rule" because last year his score was still very high and there wasn't any injuries holding him back. Good points before about 2009 inflating st. kilda's scoring. There could be a couple of points improvement in montags still, 2009 does show he has a huge ceiling. Goodes I like, though some have their doubts on whether he will be stuck at CHB. O'keefe I'm not as confident about, I'm not sure why, if he's fit and healthy there shouldn't be anything against him.
This year I hope Pendlebury wins the Brownlow from Selwood in a reverse of the 2007 Rising Star (Selwood won 44 votes to 37 in arguably the hardest to pick result in the award's history) On that, is it time for the class of 2007 to rise up this year? The class of 2006 included players who took a step up to elite or nearly including: Murphy (already there), Thomas, Pearce, H Shaw (finals), Rischitelli, Chaplin, A Swallow, and the Frenchman The class of 2007 has among its ranks... Ryder, Hawkins, Pendlebury, Selwood, Petterd, Higgins, Mitch Clark, Gibbs, Hurn, Gray, Westhoff, Gilbert, Boak, and yes the Frenchman Le Crap again. Some interesting names there I think who are well worth looking at for your team. Some who in the case of Hawkins, Clark and Hurn have a bit to prove after an average year. Some who in the case of Petterd, Higgins and Gray need a bit of fitness fortune Some who in the case of Ryder, Le Cras, Gibbs need one more huge year to be classed premium
Cool thread! The age of some are a small concern (Hayes, Goodes and Corey) as they're not spring chickens anymore. They are however well-proven performers so if fit I'm sure they'll be in many teams. Might be worth staying off Goodesy until mid-season when he starts to fire.
Another one to add to the list is maxwell. 09 averaged 92 10 averaged 72 Depending on his role will determine his scores. I will be one who will watching his preseason very closely.
BIG dean COX 08 = 112 09 = 111 10 = 88 Fit the bill perfectly. Age and NN are the only issues. The new rule should help so another one to watch close this preseason
<blockquote>Quote from Daveo on January 29, 2011, 00:33 BIG dean COX 08 = 112 09 = 111 10 = 88 Fit the bill perfectly. Age and NN are the only issues. The new rule should help so another one to watch close this preseason</blockquote> Good spot, I forgot about the rucks. You could also add: 09 08 McIntosh 91.6 81.5 Jolly 92.9 79.8 Clark 93.8 72.8
Liam anthony anyone? 2 years older from when he averaged 95 in 09' and have heard good stuff about him. 380k price tag get on
Anthony is interesting. He gets a heap of the ball; so much in fact I'm starting to wonder if his presence will impact on Andrew Swallow's output. My problem with Anthony is his SC conversion. He averaged 95 DT & 83 SC in his 7 games last year. That sort of negative conversion really stands out in quieter games. In 2009 his DT & SC were on par so he will probably improve a bit, but I like to get midfielders with a history of positive conversion. I got burnt by Neon last year and after his GF replay omission I told myself not to be tempted by his bargain basement price in 2011. Yet I find I am.... I read a report on a Collingwood intra-club game that Davis played last week. It seems he shone playing off half-back. Lucas might have an idea how likely he is to actually play there this year but I think he's well suited to the role. In his break-out year of 2009 he got a lot of points playing an outside role and delivering accurately upfield. Off HB he'll have room to move, space to go on runs. He seemed to struggle last year with the level of congestion Collingwood created in their forward line by holding the ball in there so effectively. If he gets his run back he gets his mojo back. A positional change to half-back puts Leon on the radar.
Even though Anthony scores higher in dream team it is still really hard to rule a player out of supercoach just because of that. Liam gets a lot more of the ball than a lot of other players, which is always a great sign from a fantasy point of view, wheather it is DT or SC?