Points of Difference - UPDATE

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Jason, Mar 31, 2015.

By Jason on Mar 31, 2015 at 11:00 AM
  1. Jason

    Jason Moderator Staff Member

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    New data was released earlier today.
    Rucks
    23.0% Naitanui
    22.1% Cox
    20.6% Leuenberger
    19.2% Bellchambers
    18.6% Goldstein
    12.4% Ryder
    10.1% Jacobs
    8.1% Maric
    7.8% Read
    7.8% Mumford
    6.8% Sandilands
    6.0% Smith
    5.7% Minson
    5.5% Naismith
    5.5% Nankervis
    5.3% Wright
    5.2% O'Brien

    Defenders
    47.5% Saad, Adam
    31.2% Goddard
    27.8% Lumumba
    27.8% Newnes
    22.0% Brown, N
    21.8% Shaw, H
    18.7% Hodge
    17.2% McIntosh
    17.0% Goodes
    16.9% Whitecross
    16.4% Malceski
    15.2% Higgins
    12.1% Burgoyne
    12.0% Gibson
    11.7% Hamling
    10.6% Simpson
    10.4% Ibbotson
    9.8% Kolodjashnij, K
    9.8% Pearce, C
    9.5% Smith
    8.9% Rohan
    8.4% Geary
    8.3% Edwards
    7.8% Hibberd
    7.4% Taylor
    7.4% Lever
    7.3% Oxley
    7.2% Dalgleish
    7.1% Moore
    6.3% Dick
    6.3% McKenzie
    5.3% Maynard

    Forwards
    62.8% Clark
    47.0% Swan
    46.3% Gray
    41.8% Hogan
    40.7% Lambert
    40.2% Martin, D
    32.0% Salem
    31.2% Goddard, H
    30.9% Krakouer
    24.0% Bontempelli
    22.1% Cox
    19.2% Franklin
    19.2% Bellchambers
    15.6% Steele
    15.2% Goddard, B
    15.2% Higgins
    14.7% Deledio
    14.3% Bartel
    12.4% Ryder
    12.1% Lamb
    11.6% Daniel
    11.4% Roughead
    10.8% Mitchell, T
    10.4% Saad, Ahmed
    10.2% Bennell
    10.2% Karnezis
    7.8% Read
    7.8% Laverde
    7.4% Lonie
    7.1% Moore
    6.7% Membrey
    6.6% Zorko
    6.6% Boyd
    6.5% Cameron
    5.6% McCartin
    5.3% Wright
    5.2% O'Brien

    Midfielders
    47.5% Saad, Adam
    47.0% Swan
    46.3% Gray
    40.7% Lambert
    40.2% Ablett
    40.2% Martin, D
    40.0% Heeney
    39.0% Fyfe
    34.8% Ellis-Yolmen
    34.5% Cripps
    30.9% Krakouer
    30.7% Pendlebury
    27.8% Lumumba
    27.8% Newnes
    27.5% Rich
    27.0% Anderson
    25.5% van Berlo
    24.0% Bontempelli
    23.9% Cockatoo
    23.2% Selwood
    22.1% Vandenberg
    21.6% Freeman
    19.3% Griffen
    18.7% Hodge
    16.1% Dangerfield
    15.6% Steele
    15.2% Beams, D
    15.2% Goddard, B
    14.7% Deledio
    14.7% Miller
    13.2% Boekhorst
    12.1% Burgoyne
    12.0% Rocklifff
    11.3% Swallow, A
    11.0% Newton
    10.8% Mitchell, T
    10.8% Parker
    10.2% Bennell
    9.8% Wells
    9.8% Pearce, C
    9.0% Wines
    8.9% Kennedy, JP
    8.7% Steven
    8.1% Mitchell, S
    8.1% Brayshaw
    7.8% Laverde
    7.2% Neale
    6.8% de Goey
    6.6% Zorko
    6.3% Dick
    6.3% McKenzie
    5.5% Langford
    5.5% Priddis
    5.3% Maynard
    5.2% Boak
    5.2% Lewis
     
    Jason, Jan 1, 1970
    #1

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Jason, Mar 31, 2015.

  • Page 1 of 4
    1. Jason
      Jason
      Ablett ownership has dropped about 6% in the past week. More detailed analysis to follow.
      Jason, Mar 31, 2015
      #2
    2. TerryinBangkok
      TerryinBangkok
      Seems to be a lot depending on Cox. Interesting choice. Rocky hasn't moved much and with the drop off from GAJ there is a more even spread. Griff has risen 2%, but the big riser is Fyfe, from 29.3 to 39.0.
      TerryinBangkok, Mar 31, 2015
      #3
    3. stripey
      stripey
      To quote a line out of Madagascar, Fyfe gives me the 'heebie jeebies'...... like Stevie J he seems to keep finding new ways to miss games. Love the type of player he is but i want my premiums on the park every game. I wont be touching Fyfe, I would take an expected drop in price on Rocky/Gaz/etc if it came with increased confidence they would be on the park each week.

      WhiteX and Goddard in the defenders stand out along with Krakoeur in the forward line - high ownership given they most likely wont be around Round 1.
      stripey, Mar 31, 2015
      #4
    4. Jason
      Jason
      Nah, Fyfe will just get a fine this year instead of missing 1-2 games depending on carryover points.
      Jason, Mar 31, 2015
      #5
    5. TerryinBangkok
      TerryinBangkok
      As usual with the season opener, teams are deathly slow in being announced. Or is it that they have forgotten in all the ASADA hoo ha?
      TerryinBangkok, Mar 31, 2015
      #6
    6. Jason
      Jason
      Thursday teams come out Wednesday evening.
      Jason, Mar 31, 2015
      #7
    7. Crafty Yarni
      Crafty Yarni
      gday all. I've been a quiet observer so far and thought I might bowl a bouncer.

      the ablett conundrum! all the regular contributors have stated that you ideally need as many keepers in your team at the start of the season, blended in with the right & correct mix of rookies.

      so if as a supercoach community we believe ablett will be a top 10 mid, why isn't he there at the start.

      so if we start without ablett, how in god's name (ha ha) can you bring him in the team. the worst he will drop in value ( without doing the math) is about 80k max. so do you trade out a pendlebury,fyfe etc to bring him in. most teams will need to do a double trade to achieve returning ablett to their sides. that is unless an astute supercoach has 100k sitting in the bank to bring him in at round 4 lets say.

      so, come round 4 and teams need to trade to get the player(s) they missed originally, the still need to work out how to get god's son in there.

      I had ablett in my team, removed him and I thought I had a cracker team. then I had that moment of madness - I need gary in there.

      yes I will go without cripps now and other high end rookies, but I do know this, ablett will gaurentee me 100 point minimum over his first 3 rounds.

      the scary thing is, imagine if he starts against the demons and bangs out a 130 with the (c)!

      60% of coaches will be saying 'DOH'

      thoughts if any would be appreciated.
      Crafty Yarni, Mar 31, 2015
      #8
    8. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      CY - not sure if you saw my poll in 'this and that' but it looks like about 2/3 of TSers are planning to trot out without GAJ even if he lines up, that surprised me a lot

      clearly any player without a decent preseason is a risk, no NAB games is a major redflag

      reinjuring the shoulder is going to be a worry throughout the year, as will be the likelihood of plenty of forward line time ala 2010 at Geelong at least until he gains full match fitness. there is even the risk of a red vest if the Suns are up or down by a bunch and have no injuries to 3qt.

      i think you are right that if the plan is to bring GAJ in (if fit) early on you need to either start off with decent coin in the bank or be brutal in freeing up some cash

      it's ALWAYS worth running the numbers in the stats section to see what 100,100,100,100 in the first 4 rounds does to his price, i have a feeling it might be more than the $80k loss you estimated

      FWIW I was waiting until tonight to start moving players in and out of my team until Saturday morning and I will most likely keep GAJ in. I might have him as VC with one of my other premos as Captain, but unless we have less rookies named than we expect I am unlikely to have a donut I can use for the VC loophole if he smashes a monster out first up.
      TheTassieHawk, Mar 31, 2015
      #9
    9. Micksdemons
      Micksdemons
      You can bet on that - 100% coorect
      Micksdemons, Mar 31, 2015
      #10
    10. choppers
      choppers
      If GAJ scores 100 in each of his first 4 rounds, he should drop approx. $96500 to $638100
      ' 110 ' $74020 to $660580
      ' 120 ' $51600 to $683000

      Approx. costings..........
      choppers, Mar 31, 2015
      #11
    11. choppers
      choppers
      That post didn't come out how I thought it would.....lol! I was trying to post his price drops over four rounds if he averaged 100, 110 and 120.

      I have GAJ in my team.
      choppers, Mar 31, 2015
      #12
    12. TerryinBangkok
      TerryinBangkok
      Confirmed 22. Usually you get the 26 squads 2 days before?
      TerryinBangkok, Mar 31, 2015
      #13
    13. Crafty Yarni
      Crafty Yarni
      cool, someone's done the maths. so he bangs 100 (x4).

      gaj is then 20k cheaper than the starting price of fyfe - another keeper.

      so it will be fyfe out, ablett in! - a move I don't have to contemplate.

      Crafty Yarni, Mar 31, 2015
      #14
    14. jp
      jp
      Not many people can afford to trade in a 640K player at round 4. Also the Suns play Melbourne, StKilda, Cats, Giants in the first 4 rounds, GAJ could easily average 130 across those games.

      He's in my team too.
      jp, Mar 31, 2015
      #15
    15. Jason
      Jason
      If GAJ scores 100, 100, 100 and his price drops 60k, why on earth would you move heaven and earth to bring him into your team for R4?

      If he scored another 100, his price would drop a further 60k, and so on. Seems ludicrous to want to bring him into your team when his value continues to be in freefall.
      Jason, Mar 31, 2015
      #16
    16. Jason
      Jason
      Where did you get those numbers - TS or elsewhere?
      Is there a problem with the TS salary calculator? Because using it I get:

      4x 100 would see his price fall to 629k
      4x 110 would see his price fall to 651k
      4x 120 would see his price fall to 674k
      Jason, Mar 31, 2015
      #17
    17. Jason
      Jason
      26 squads? There are only 18 teams.
      Jason, Mar 31, 2015
      #18
    18. RPritch
      RPritch
      May I just say, IF he plays the first five games, and IF he averages 85%+ TOG, there will be NO WAY GAJ will average 100, it will be closer to 130 for sure
      RPritch, Mar 31, 2015
      #19
    19. Crafty Yarni
      Crafty Yarni
      I believe TiB was referring to 26 man squads Jase
      Crafty Yarni, Mar 31, 2015
      #20
    Page 1 of 4

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