Predicting breakouts with the Draft Planner.

Discussion in 'Blog' started by walesy, Mar 14, 2014.

By walesy on Mar 14, 2014 at 11:00 AM
  1. walesy

    walesy Administrator Staff Member

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    Thedraft planneris awesome. It lets you enter in what you think a player will average, then use that to generate an awesome draft list for you based on the results of a VBD calc.
    You know what else it let you do? Lets you put your fingers on the pulse of the players that people believe will break out this year.
    Now, of course, this tends to miss a lot of rookies, since those guys generally won't average enough to be draft league relevant.
    So lets take a look at some of the data.
    Top 20 raisers



    <tbody>


    ave
    Diff




    Will LANGFORD
    60
    46




    Viv MICHIE
    85
    45




    Dom Tyson
    90
    45




    Liam Shiels
    94
    33




    Matt SUCKLING
    32
    32




    Aaron Sandilands
    90
    26




    John BUTCHER
    68
    24




    Tomas Bugg
    78
    21




    Josh CADDY
    80
    20




    Jackson Macrae
    80
    19




    Shane Savage
    82
    19




    Rhys Palmer
    85
    19




    Joe Daniher
    70
    19




    Tom Hawkins
    83
    16




    Shaun Higgins
    75
    16




    Brendan Whitecross
    77
    15




    Brodie Grundy
    85
    15




    Ben HOWLETT
    90
    15




    Matthew WRIGHT
    84
    13




    James Guilt
    80
    12





    Viv and Dom both show why they are in a lot of teams this year. There's a lot of confidence there. As is Suckling and Sandi



    There's a good mindset out there that Liam Shiels is going to be one of the top risers this year. Not many have the stones to go with him though. Maybe they should? Also interesting to see the love coming towards John Butcher. A great talent, but needs to get his body right!



    Caddy, Macrae, Savage, Higgins are the usual suspects, but Rhys Palmer, Joe Daniher and Hawkins could provide just as much value.
    Top 20 fallers



    <tbody>


    ave
    Diff




    Adam Cooney
    90
    -9




    Cameron DELANEY
    81
    -9




    Jonathan Giles
    65
    -10




    Brent Renouf
    42
    -10




    Jack Hannath
    37
    -10




    John CEGLAR
    37
    -10




    Daniel GORRINGE
    52
    -10




    Jarrod Witts
    54
    -10




    Trent West
    54
    -10




    Callum Sinclair
    55
    -10




    Jarrad Redden
    57
    -10




    Sam GRIMLEY
    56
    -10




    Shaun McKernan
    53
    -10




    Harry Taylor
    80
    -14




    Jordan Lewis
    80
    -17




    Chris Judd
    80
    -19




    Andrew Swallow
    80
    -21




    David Hale
    62
    -21




    Nathan VARDY
    46
    -23




    Ben Hudson
    61
    -24






    A lot of injuries on this list, as people scale them back to not select them- but more importantly, there's a lot of ruckmen. Don't know if thats a strategy to manipulate the draft system, or if people really believe that 11 of the top 20 fallers this year will play a role in the ruck.
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by walesy, Mar 14, 2014.

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